Advice

Would you be interested in a betting seminar?

Photo of Michael Wilding Michael WildingSeptember 2, 2014
13 339 Less than a minute

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Photo of Michael Wilding Michael WildingSeptember 2, 2014
13 339 Less than a minute
Photo of Michael Wilding

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. You can also check out my personal blog or my personal Instagram account.

13 Comments

  1. Hi Michael,

    I was expeting to fill in a short survey for you but all this ‘weird webbery’ popped up. I neither ‘Like’ ‘Twitter’ or ‘Share’ anything – I don’t know if these ‘additions’ were integral to the survey? I’m just about to put another spoke on my cart wheel, but I’m left cold by the hi-tech survey,
    Ta,
    J.P.

  2. Hi Michael
    I like the idea of SmartSigger but I find too much statistical bias. I keep my betting very simple and it is successful -i.e. I make a good profit each year. I know you favour a very methodical and statistical approach but I do not find this necessary. Mind you, I probably have less bets than most people since I am prepared to wait for strong value bets. I would prefer articles based more on personal experience and less on too many statistics (which I find personally boring and a switch off). I would like overviews of things like:- course characteristics (i.e effect of draw, pace etc..), decent tipsters/pro’s giving their 5 best and 5 worst bets of the last month and “the reasons why” – I would find this type of thing a lot more interesting. I appreciate you do a great job in keeping people informed. Tony

    1. Thank you Tony. I will look at getting more articles closer to that. The problem with using opinion rather than statistics is that it is just that. It doesn’t mean it doesn’t work for someone but almost certainly won’t work for somebody else because they’re opinion on other elements is different. I very much like the idea of a good tipster/pro giving their 5 best and 5 worst bets of the month and an explanation of the reason why.

  3. Hi Michael,

    Though the thought of a seminar sounds great to get an insight to how pro’s work, at present I just don’t get the time for such things 🙁

    Mick

  4. Hi Michael

    Tony Hogans reply is typical of the punters attitude to statistics. I have been working and keeping statistics for over seventy years. I develop systems and program them and have a web site where daily I list three horses for every race in the UK. I recommend six methods of use for these selections. I indicate the races where the favourite should be backed (Profit 21.87 points (SP) last month). Place bets when the favourite is odds-on or evens (Profit last month 35.76 points net BSP). Win bets only on my selections less than 7/2 (profit last month 58.33 points net BSP). Bets on prices 7/2 and above lose massively and bets on my selections of 10/1 and over win some months and lose other months. I list the results daily as I am trying to assist the punter. Regrettably some punters want it on a plate.

    When I discuss the selections with the man in the bookies the reply I receive consistently is “I only want to be told one horse name”.

    I have a system where I look for high priced horses. For the first time in three months I made a loss of 18.78 points net BSP. Profit in June 84 points net BSP and July 10.11 points net BSP.

    All systems I design have to use statistics. All systems use statistics. If you look and check whether a particular horse is a course winner, distance winner etc you are using statistics. When assessing which horse to back you arrive at the decision by the use of statistics. Statistics cannot be avoided.

    A tale for Tony; When I first started backing horses I had a very successful system (which still works). In two months I had won a £1000 staking 50p bets. I lost it all in 3 days through greed and lack of discipline.
    Moral of the story – stick to the plan and do not deviate.

  5. Hi alan regarding the stats on the favourites that are selected what do you consider to be the most important stats ? I take great interest in trainer at the course and jockey combination stats myself also what do you consider a big enough sample of data ?

  6. Jon thanks for the compliment. To Stephen I cannot be definitive. The approach I use is to accumulate my own statistics and after a month I use them in my systems. I have statistics on favourites with 74000 plus records. I have statistics on the performance of my systems the size of which depends on the date of creation of the system. I had a system where I took 95 factors into account for every horse in a race – one might say I used the colour of the jockeys underpants to assess the winner. That is an extreme example. Yesterday one of my systems gave me a profit of 39.62 points and I only use two factors to make my selections. My selections are free and on the internet but it would be improper for me to tell you where.

    I must reiterate the message Michael is always expounding – Monitor your bets. I spend more time monitoring my selections than I do selecting.

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