Advice

Why Speed Ratings Are Powerful

Recently I launched a piece of software called Betting Speed Evolution, which not only finds winners on auto-selection but is also a speed based analysis tool. So, I thought that it would be appropriate to write an article about why speed ratings are so powerful.

In the UK it’s commonly thought that speed ratings are only effective on the flat and all-weather, and this is just not true. For a long time I used to think this as well, but then having spent a lot of time studying the big US betting syndicates I realised that I was doing it wrong. In fact speed ratings can be very effective on all race types if you use them properly.

Today, speed ratings feature in almost every aspect of my betting. Traditionally we create speed ratings as a rating that allows us to look at horses from different classes and race conditions together under the same roof. One rating as a total analysis tool. Great in theory, and the theory works well…to a certain degree.

First of all it’s important to understand that a rating is an estimate of a horses performance. If we create a rating before a race then it’s a projected estimate, and if we create a rating after a race then it’s a more accurate estimate of how the horse has performed. However, even after a race it is still an estimate. There are too many unmeasurable factors in horse racing to make it 100% accurate. This doesn’t mean that we can’t make money from it, quite the opposite, but we need to be aware that we are not dealing with 100% accurate figures.

It is very easy to get bogged down in the minutiae of a rating. I have done it myself many times, but at the end of the day these minutiae don’t matter because they are swallowed up in by the unmeasurable factors (e.g. wind, how a horse is feeling etc…).

How does being aware of this help us?

Because we know the horse may actually have achieved a slightly higher or lower rating than the one it has been given. Every time we take account of a factor in a rating then we lose a little bit of its accuracy. For example, in speed ratings we may take into account the course, going and distance. At each of these steps we lose a little bit more of the ratings accuracy because we are estimating at each stage. We have to take these things into account because otherwise we wouldn’t have an effective rating at all, but once again, it is important to be aware of what the number we are using represents.

Most people have their speed ratings and start comparing each horse at every race with all the other horses. But we aren’t most people, we are knowledgable punters who want to make a profit, and so we do things differently.

Instead we start by just looking at the horses who have run over the same conditions to todays race and their speed ratings. We are looking for horses that have performed well, particularly if they have performed better than the others. Make  note if any have improved or declined over similar race conditions.

When we have done this and made some notes, we then widen the net and look at similar conditions, maybe similar goings and slightly longer/shorter distances. We repeat the process above.

Finally we use the market, are there any runners in the market that have short odds that we didn’t mark up as having potential to win this race. If so then we want to know why (doesn’t mean we bet on them), so we look at all the ratings and find the races that are likely to be the reason for the horses position in the market. We ask ourselves if the horse is…

a) Likely to repeat this performance.

b) Likely to perform this well under todays conditions.

Quite often the answer will be no and so we can ignore this horse as a contender or possibly consider it a lay bet. Then we can focus on our notes and the runners that have shown themselves to be strongest in the conditions that todays race is actually being run.

While this article has outlined this methodology using speed ratings, it can be effectively applied to any type of rating. Choose your favourite ratings and go and experiment, I think you will be pleased with what you find.

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. You can also check out my personal blog or my personal Instagram account.

34 Comments

  1. Hi,
    I have just purchased BSE and over the short period i have been using i am in profit which is good. I see you send various emails out regarding speed ratings etc and how to use them, you even included a free excel sheet and advice notes which i take it is a crude version of BSE.
    You now have sent this out explaining a bit more. The info you give out which is free is great but i have paid money for a system which you are giving out the secrets to anybody who subscribes to certain websites. Thats not fair.

    1. Thanks Mark. Please note that BSE is a tool that accesses all my own custom speed ratings and information which helps you do the analysis quickly and efficiently. For people who are not using BSE the concepts help with their betting but they do not have access to all the data you receive every day or the one-to-one support.

      1. hi mark
        i have been monitoring for last 7 days the back and lay tips software brings up, and does not appear to be in profit to me , is there anything else i should be doing apart from following the selections that software brings up to find the profit?

        1. This is not the place to provide support for BSE please contact me on the support email address and I go through everything with you.

      2. Bse when u tip lays are these only to be bet on if the odds drop below 10? because quite a few are way above 10 making it too risky.Also u recommend £20 stakes which when software picks 15 tips for example and only 3 win that becomes a loss , so i cant see so far that i will be continuing after trial with results being so poor in last 7 days, .

  2. While I am new to this I like the discipline of systems and the elimination of the emotional side issues. I am using BSE as I write and will look into how it is derived later. Interesting post.

  3. I have always used speed ratings as a major factor in the selecttion process. Not to take speed ratings seriously is, in my experience, unwise. However, a constant irritant when calculating speed figures is some of the nonsense official going reports issued.

  4. I have to agree with Mark’s comments a little earlier. I too paid the full price for the BSE program only to find you are now leaking bits via email.
    If you are doing this in the hope that you will entice more people to purchase BSE, you would be going back on your promise to keep the program restricted. If that isn’t the reason then I’m left wondering if I’ve been mugged again.
    Not too impressed so far.

    1. Hi Roger, thank you for your email. BSE provides a huge amount more information than is in this post. It is not possible to compare a piece of advanced software with complete instructions and support with a 750 word article that shows a concept. You have access to daily speed ratings, graphs and many more tools as well as full manuals, webinar and support.

  5. A salient point but not always carried out, is to check the horse’s performance NOT ONLY ON THE GIVEN CONDITIONS BUT ALSO SIMILAR GROUND CONDITIONS.OFTEN MISSED OUT BUT VERY IMPORTANT!!!

  6. This definitely works.

    I have BSE, and in the first 7 races this morning the winner was the top rated horse on the basic speed tables in four of the races. This is a fairly crude way to use the system (ie. with no filtering), but in this case backing the top rated would have returned a profit of a little over 13 points on BSP (after commission).

  7. A good example – 15:40 at Hamilton…High Resolution was standing by itself once the filters in BSE were applied (I guess you didn’t need the system to do, but it made it a whole lot easier)…it won at 9.2.

  8. Hi Micheal
    Interesting words as usual, can I add my voice to the support to reading the manuals especially the advanced one as it give you so much information that you can use with other pieces of information you are using to make a decision, unless your stickin a pin in the map
    I use BSE and use another set of ratings I also recieve,
    I picked up Gud Day Uttox yesterday at 7/1 using the information based in the program but not highlighted as a selection there was another piece of rating that I used that made it a back for me
    Regards
    Brian

    1. Another day, another losing dollar. Or more so, many now, and it seems a pattern rather than an individual occurance.

      1 from 8 back bets and 1 from 1 lay bets as winning bets today. Thank the bejusus that one won.This is a rgular themewith Lays somehow winning, and hardly any Backs winning,

      There is no way this can be be profitable at 2% back and 0.5% lay over the long term considering the bets since joining.

      This includes the Gold Cup winner which was a one off, and on that day your horse selections in the massive majority failed..

      I am beginning to think that betting 1% on the top rated horses ( ) are doing better than the predictions?

      I had £5000 poundstarting bank….how much do I have now?

      How much, if any, will I have in ywo weeks time?

      I think the tool itself could be useful, as bgfella37 said, as long as you already have a system and good racing experience as a better in your portfolio. If you are bettong the delections blind, like me, welcome to the dog house.

      Regards,
      J

      1. At the end of the rainbow you finallly discovered what should have been a pot of gold, was indeed a crock of shit, and Dorothy was no longer in Kansas!

        1. Thank you for your comments J. Are you following all the instructions in the manual? There was 1 lay bet which won (horse lost) today and 5 back bets of which one won at odds of 9.2 for a profit of 5.74 units today after commission. Since BSE launched on the 14th September we have made 11.70 units profit. The lays are currently at a small loss of 4.57 units and the backs are in profit by 16.27 units after commission. On all selections there has been a strike rate of 39% and a ROI of 23%.

  9. thi is as clear as mud and does not tell us anything!!
    also a speed rating is only a guide and does not give a full appraisal of a horse’s true ability,class,going,distance,and cosistency.

  10. Hi all
    Its about angles and finding angles…
    Micheals…. Kemptom system is £81 in profit off five race days where there are qualifications to £5 bets
    Have you analysed todays BSE ratings
    I had a quick look and this is what I found based on the winners and places 1/2/3 or 1/2 if less than 7
    The top three horses in the advanced mode on the bot
    Ist horse won 8 races
    2nd horse won 2 races
    3rd placed horse won 5 races
    Dutch the top two 10 winners from 37 races 27% strike rate
    Dutch top three 17 winners from 37 races 46% strike rate

    But the interesting part was the top three horse had 42 “place” wins
    So is there a case to look at each ways or look for place bets
    So what were the best winning distances… today based on top three horses
    1m1f 4 races 3 winners 75%
    7f 7 races 2 winners 57%
    6f 6 races 2 winners 33%
    But what will tomorrow bring… the weather was awful today and surely would of had an affect

    All these factors have a bearing… read Micheals professional guide to start to understand the parameters of what we look at before placing a bet…
    Im no expert but having bought loads and loads of shite over the years for the first time I feel Im learning because of Micheals honesty…
    Apply the filters get up in the morning and do the work…
    Yes I have a full time job
    Hope this stimulates a bit of thought and keeness to dig deeper into what can be done rather than just moan at what one is given
    regards
    Bigfella37

    1. Agree with you B37, but most people who bought the system probably haven’t got the time to analyse and went off the advertised profit figures. I agree with what you said above, but if you are going to do your own analysis, then surely you could have just used the spreadsheet and inputted your own figures, etcetera, which surely defeats the purpose of buying a system? The fact that you use two or more systems in conjunction is another failing of the system, particularly as the system did not find the winner.

      I did not buy a Kempton system, but nice to know that ay least a small part of it is working to plan.If I am given 5 selctions to back and two to lay, I would expect a certain level of confidence in making those bets. So far I have not. I am told that it will readjust and that it is a losing streak by Michael, but the ratio so far is not good.

      I am not so naiive to think this system will pick a winner every time, but come on 1 from 8?

      And for the record……..I am a professional gambler, and not unhappy with the package. My concern is for people backing the selections only.

      J

        1. I was just playing Devil’s Advocate using the figures I have had since joining.
          For the record I have now no need for Proform or Inform, which i used on a regular basis. The only down side I see is that cycles when a horse peaks cannot be seen over a yearly graph. I have already picked a few winners using the diagnosis tool, and had a good Back to Lay win with Tough talkin Man. So no complaints at all. In fact, the tool alone is so good, it can be considered a betting investment in its own right.

  11. i agree with with mark and roger , i purchased puntology, pay a monthly fee for a 52 week course then get offered a 75 part course for free .very annoying.

  12. When looking at speed ratings for a race run on turf do you disregard A ll Weather speed ratings or are they included in the last six ratings that you consider?

    1. I start by not considering them but do look at them and compare them to Turf ratings to see the difference and make an assessment whether their all-weather form is transferable to turf.

  13. Hi Michael. I have tried to download the spreadsheet from Puntology and it contains the example race you used from the Racing Post. I am unable to delete the example . I need to download the empty spread sheet? I am seeking some advice to enable me to continue,
    Mel

    1. Hi Mel, could you send me the spreadsheet you have as an attachment please to our support email address. Thanks.

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