Trying to find value on Premier league markets is hard at the best of times. If it’s true that we know what every player eats for breakfast, what sort of injuries they’re carrying, who had a training ground row with who, how one side will line up against another and what their head-to-head record is against this week’s opposition going back to when Rick Astley was the coolest thing in town, then so do the bookies. That means playing the match winner and goals markets become more about just having a good strike rate than finding value and so it can pay to look beyond the obvious.
Sunderland v Chelsea
Sunderland v Chelsea is a tough match to call with the Black Cats fighting for survival and Chelsea eager to finish the season on a high. Just about anything could happen there but the stats suggest that irrespective of how many goals Chelsea will score, they should have quite a high corner count. In 17 away matches this season, Chelsea got six or more corners on 11 occasions and the tendency for them getting plenty of corners is further illustrated by the fact that their corner count in their last six home matches reads: 10, 8, 8, 10, 11, 7.
Looking at this specific match, it’s not hard to imagine that they’ll have the bulk of possession with Sunderland mostly sitting back and then trying to launch the likes of Jermain Defoe on the break. Eden Hazard seems to be finding some form with two scored at Bournemouth a couple of weeks ago and a goal-scoring cameo at home to Spurs on Monday night. He’ll be their main outlet on Saturday and should he receive the ball out wide often enough, with Willian doing the same on the other wing, over 5.5 corners should be achieved at 1.9.
Aston Villa v Newcastle
Over at Villa Park, the stats suggest that by hook or by crook, Newcastle will leave with three points. After all, Villa have now lost 11 in a row. Newcastle are in pretty decent form with two wins and two draws from their last four and odds of 1.6 suggest everyone thinks this match is heading the same way as all of Villa’s others. But it may actually pay to go somewhat against the grain here. I’ve seen it happen before that sides get a new-found sense of freedom once relegated and that might explain why having scored just two goals in 10 matches between late January and early April, Aston Villa have now scored five in their last four and four in their last two. Newcastle aren’t exactly the most reliable side in the world defensively despite a recent improvement and a 2-2 or even another heart-breaking 3-2 to Newcastle could well be on the cards. It could well pay to back Aston Villa to score over 1.5 goals at a really big price of 4.0.
Tottenham v Southampton
Tottenham host Southampton at White Hart Lane knowing the dream is over but this could be a good game with Spurs desperate to finish second and Southampton still looking for a Top 6 finish. This is another match that’s tough to call and it’s a rare case of having an opposition player on the pitch whose goalscoring form is as good as Harry Kane’s. The mercurial Sadio Mane scored a hat-trick against City last weekend and had scored in each of his previous two matches as well. He’s one of those players who when he’s hot, he’s hot and it may just be that with the title race over, the Spurs intensity isn’t quite there. Either way, Mane is an attractive looking best price of 4.5 and that’s certainly worth chancing.
Back Over 5.5 Chelsea corners against Sunderland @ 1.9 with Bet365
Back Over 1.5 Aston Villa goals against Newcastle @ 4.0 with Bet365
Back Sadio Mane to score anytime against Tottenham @ 4.5 with Betfred