Guest post written by Ben Aitken.
It is hardly a secret that the Nigel Twiston-Davies (NTD) bandwagon rolls into town in late Summer/Autumn time and sweeps all before it, it is a well know phenomenon and one that many a punter will be aware of. That, however, does not mean we can’t utilise it to our benefit and add a few extra shekels to our betting bank.
In my opinion there is still plenty of juice to be squeezed out of the Twiston-Davies squad whilst in the midst of Twister season (as I have affectionately named it!). If we can find the hot-spots and profitable angles during this period then the profits can be ripe for the picking.
Today I want to share with you a couple of ‘Twister Season’ angles that should add some profitable arsenal to your punting weaponry.
Before I start digging down into some of the finer points of Twister Season, however, I first want to share with you the overall monthly figures for NTD’s runners.
The below table looks at the overall NTD record from 2006-present and breaks it down month by month –
|
Month |
Runners |
Winners |
Win S/R |
P/L Betfair |
ROI Betfair |
Win & Plc |
Win & Plc S/R |
|
Jan |
368 |
35 |
9.50% |
365.7 |
99.38 |
101 |
27% |
|
Feb |
403 |
46 |
11.50% |
189.04 |
46.91 |
124 |
31% |
|
Mar |
494 |
42 |
8.50% |
-106.74 |
-21.61 |
135 |
27% |
|
Apr |
417 |
48 |
11.50% |
-24.12 |
-5.78 |
117 |
28% |
|
May |
205 |
21 |
10% |
-74.01 |
-36.1 |
55 |
27% |
|
Jun |
154 |
26 |
17% |
-11.94 |
-7.76 |
63 |
41% |
|
Jul |
132 |
25 |
19% |
-18.34 |
-13.89 |
58 |
44% |
|
Aug |
108 |
28 |
26% |
92.17 |
85.34 |
49 |
45% |
|
Sep |
171 |
44 |
26% |
48.63 |
28.44 |
88 |
51% |
|
Oct |
434 |
92 |
21% |
237.41 |
54.7 |
194 |
45% |
|
Nov |
506 |
66 |
13% |
-121.16 |
-23.94 |
177 |
35% |
|
Dec |
420 |
31 |
7% |
-201.11 |
-47.88 |
101 |
24% |
The area highlighted in GREEN is Twister Season. Just look at the strike-rates in those 3 months – 26%, 26% & 21% – the only 2 months that are close to that are June (17%) and July (19%) and clearly that is when NTD is preparing himself for Twister Season!
Now for those profitable angles I was talking about…
Angle 1: Twister Season – Days since last start
One thing NTD is expert at is getting his runners fit and bouncing at home on his own gallops. When his runners return to the track in ‘Twister Season’ after a lengthy break (150 days or more) then we can be pretty confident they are fit and ready to do damage –
NTD runners returning to track after a break of 150 days or more
63/238 | 26% S/R | +£111.86 BFLSP – Win & Place 111/238 | 47% S/R
It is a hefty return for these types of NTD runners and rather than coming to the track in need of the run they are actually coming here in rude health and ready to run near peak form.
Angle 2: Twister Season – Runners at Perth
24/73 | 33% S/R | +£5.73 BFLSP Win & Place 41/73 | 56% S/R
No secret that NTD usually steals the show at Perth and this is one track where that has actually damaged the profitability of the overall angle. If we dig a little deeper, however, we can still find areas of interest for us –
NTD Perth runners over the 2m4f trip (20f)
11/22 | 50% S/R | +£17.63 BFLSP – 14/22 | 64% S/R
NTD Perth runners aged 5+
23/55 | 42% S/R | +£21.86 BFLSP – 32/55 | 58% S/R
NTD Perth Non-Handicap runners
15/37 | 41% S/R | +£6.07 BFLSP – 25/37 | 68% S/R
3 ‘Twister Season’ Perth angles that all improve strike-rate and profitability. If we pull all 3 of those angles together we get an uber-strong mini angle to go to war with –
NTD Perth runners aged 5+ | 20f (2m4f) | Non-Handicaps
7/9 | 78% S/R | +£13.86 BFLSP – Win & Place 8/9 | 89% S/R
The profits are there we just maybe need to dig a bit deeper to find those golden ‘Twister Season’ Perth nuggets.
So far this ‘Twister Season’ NTD has been a bit ‘light’ with the runners he has sent to the track (only 26 runners since the beginning of August to 22nd October). That perhaps isn’t too surprising given the horrendous weather we have had most of this summer. Not only have the racetracks been struggling with the constant downpours we have endured, the trainers themselves have been hindered to varying degrees due to the terrible weather. I do, however, expect Team Twister to step up a few gears now and start sending out a much larger chunk of their stable on various plundering missions around the country.
Getting to know the traits and quirks of any racing stable is a vital part of making Horse Racing a profitable venture. Trainers are creatures of habit and trainer profiling is one of the main weapons in my punting weaponry. It can take time to get to know a trainers habits and spot trends amongst their approach but when you do it can pay off in spectacular fashion.
On my website – www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk – I’m currently giving away a FREE ‘TWISTER SEASON’ guide when you sign up to my FREE NTF service. Simply pop your details in the sign-up box on this page – http://www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk – and you will be sent a link that allows you to download the FREE Twister Season guide.
This guide stretches to a stat-packed 14 pages and digs deep into Twister Season, unearthing numerous profitable angles from which you can attack the NTD runners with during this period.
There are also numerous other FREE NTF guides you can download at the same time including my ‘Introduction to the Dosage Method’ guide. Dosage is an angle that I use to source many alternative betting angles and methods and is not an angle you are likely to read about on a regular basis.
Happy Punting
Ben Aitken (NTF)
Owner and creator of www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk and author of ‘Narrowing The Field – Using the Dosage Method to Win at National Hunt Racing’.
EXCELLIANT ARTICLE WILL JOIN YOUR WEB SITE THANKS STUARTY
Thanks Stuarty
Look forward to seeing you over at NTF.
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
Looks interesting. Will visit your site. Thanks
Hi Andy
Hope you enjoy the full NTF site.
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
Hi Ben
I am already on NTF i find your work very interesting and helpful to a new punter.
Regards Peter
Hi Peter
Glad you find my stuff helpful, I appreciate that comment mate.
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
Hi Ben, Like your approach as I am sure that the likes of NTD knows more about his horses and where and when to position them than I ever will. Going to join your website and look forward to many more insights.
Thanks
Hi Ray
I’m not even sure some of them know they are doing it but trainers are certainly creatures of habit. There are many different reasons why their strings perform better at certain times than others, sometimes it is through choice sometimes it is determined by external factors. Main thing is we need to get to know their traits and then profit from them. I actually had a conversation with Jeremy Gask once (who trains a horse I have a share in) and he thinks one of the main reasons some yards dip in and out of form at the same time every year is due to their locations and certain environmental aspects that go on at different times of the year, a concept I find fascinating.
Thanks for your comment and hope you enjoy being with NTF
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
If Mike recommends this, then I look forward to joining yourself and enjoying adding it to my portfolio
Thanks Terence
Hopefully you will enjoy my work and find it a valuable addition to your portfolio.
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
Very interesting will join now,great article
Cheers Will
Glad you enjoyed the article.
Ben (NTF)
great info good insight into ntd and his methods looking forward to learning more on ntf website cheers
Hi Johnny
Glad you enjoyed the NTD insight. He is yard I have profited from plenty in the past, both in the backing and laying front. Hope you enjoyed the full Twister Season guide as well.
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
Hi Ben
What other trainers angles do you have?
be interesting to know.
Thanks
Graham
Hi Graham
I write about plenty of trainer angles on my free blog, one was in action today at Perth – McCain/Maguire 1st time Blinkers. This is a link to the original post –
http://www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk/1138/it-can-pay-to-be-blinkered-when-it-comes-to-mccain-and-maguire/ – (you may have to copy and paste that link).
I also look at trainers that excel with runners returning after a break (90+ day trainers). There will be a free guide for October and then for the other months it only goes to the subscribers on my full NTF service.
In all honesty trainer traits always creep up in my blog posts and racing guides so obviously can’t really share them all in this comment box 🙂
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
Hi, I work in the racing industry and was told about this website by a good friend. We all love taking money off the bookies but i love this time of year when NTD horses are all fit as fleas. I know a guy who works there and they start their eork in April so by this time their fitter and stronger than most stables. I also make a massive profit every year from his stable especially when he sends them up to perth thats buying money. Some of them may be not great prices at these small courses butwhen the bigger early nh meetings you get a decent price. If you guys want info from my stable and we have anything winning ill get back to yous so drop ma a line at *removed*. Look forward to sharing some tips. Cheers
Hi there,thanks a lot for that info,very interesting,hope to use it in coming weeks,cheers pete j
Cheers Pete
Hopefully you will find plenty of spots to profit from it in the coming weeks.
Ben (NTF)
Hi, Thanks for the info on NTD very good info as usual i say as usual as I subscribe to your NTF blog and would recommend it to anybody interested in horse racing. If you like reading Michaels Race adviser you’ll like Bens blog narrowing the field.Plenty of good info on it.
Hi Peter
Thanks for that, really appreciated and glad you are enjoying NTF.
Cheers mate – Ben (NTF)
Enjoyed your info , thanks very much. I keep a rough record of trainers who manage to do doubles at race meetings so i am looking for the second winner they may have. I notice for NTD that he had doubles at Perth last April, Plumpton in October and managed three doubles at Ffos Las once in November and twice in April. Thanks again Martin
Hi Martin
Interesting approach, could well be worth following further.
Cheers – Ben (NTF)
Excellent article as usual Ben.However,has Twister changed his methods.No runners Weds,None on Thurs.Perhaps the future is following G.Elliott and D.McCain.
Hi Roddo
Yes I was very surprised to see zero NTD runners at the 2 day Perth meeting. I had, however, heard that he wasn’t willing to travel because the ground was being described as Good to Firm. Clearly once racing started the ground was not Good to Firm! Disappointing but sums up the strange weather situation we have been experiencing this year.
I’ve written about the Gordon Elliott bandwagon at Perth a few times and he is certainly a man to follow at the track, McCain also starting to firmly fit that bracket as well.
cheers – Ben (NTF)