horses

Winning Isn’t Everything…It’s The Only Thing

It probably goes without saying that thoroughbred horse racing is all about winning, but it’s especially true for wealthy owners who may spend tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands or even millions of pounds on the initial purchase, training and upkeep of their horses. Ideally, what these owners are looking for is “black type” or, in other words, for their…

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Creating Odds Lines – Episode 2 Fuzzy Logic

In my last article we looked at the basics of odds line creation and how that works. Today I want to advance on this article into using what is known as fuzzy logic to help you find the best horses to bet in the race. This is not strictly an odds line creation technique but it can be very powerful…

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Why Backing the Favourite is a Disastrous Move

When a lot of people initially get into betting, they think it’ll be easy, stick a tenner on the favourite, it’s bound to win! Isn’t it? Well as many of you are aware, that is not quite the case. There is a statistic floating around that suggests the favourite goes on to win 33% of its races. This is possibly…

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Classical Gas: A Look at Next Year’s 2,000 Guineas Contenders

The November Handicap officially brought down the curtain on the Flast season proper, so before what W.H. Ogilvie called the “hardy, hefty humble-bred ones” – in other words, the National Hunt horses – take centre stage, it’s time to look back at some of the outstanding juveniles of the year to see if we can shed some light on next…

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Creating Odds Lines – Episode 1

For most punters creating their own odds line is considered as a sign that you are at the top of your game. It shows that you have an understanding of value betting and are advanced enough to be able to create an accurate odds lines that can be used as a baseline measurement for determining your bets. But how do…

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Paddy Power Gold Cup Preview

Today we see the Paddy Power Gold Cup taking place at Cheltenham and although the ground was declared Good To Soft in the overnight declarations, this morning is very much Soft. Without further ado, I’m going to jump straight into analysing this race. I’m going to start by removing any runner with very high odds. Generally I don’t like betting on…

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Racing To Form

How do we know if a runner is likely to race to form, or if a particular yards horses are running to form? It is a tough question to answer and the best way is to watch every race. However, it’s possible to make a rating, and that’s exactly what the Racing Post have done to try and help you…

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Studying Form: Part III

Guest post written by Willy Weasel The Bard of Ayrshire, Robert Burns, once wrote… “The best-laid schemes o’ mice an ‘men Gang aft agley, An’lea’e us nought but grief an’ pain, For promis’d joy!” While I’m not particularly aggrieved or pained by the defeat of my selection, No Poppy, for whom I made a strong case in my previous article,…

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Paddy Power Gold Cup Preview: Champion Court Gets The Verdict

Guest post written by Willy Weasel. The Paddy Power Gold Cup, formerly the Mackeson Gold Cup, is run over 2 miles 4½ furlongs on the Old Course at Cheltenham, where it forms the highlight of the three-day Open Meeting. This year’s renewal is due off at 2.35 p.m. on Saturday, 17 November, so it’s high time we had a look…

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Studying Form: Part II

Guest post written by Willy Weasel In my previous article in this series, “Studying Form: Part I”, I said that I’d outline the process of studying form, step-by-step, for a selected race. The race I’ve chosen is the Thoroughbred Breeders’ Association Fillies’ Handicap, due to be run on the Rowley Mile course at Newmarket at 4.45 p.m. on Wednesday, October…

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What Is A Book?

Following a question that was left on a recent article here I thought I would write on the subject of what a book is in sports betting. A book is what a bookmaker makes, hence the name. This is the method of creating a price on every selection in the race. With Betfair allowing us to take the place of the…

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Dutching: A Way To Make Your Betting Pay

Guest post written by Ed from Value At The Races. Have you ever fancied two horses in a race but sided with just the one and then watched it get beat on the line by the other one you fancied? This used to be the case for me until I discovered dutching. There are two ways to Dutch. You can…

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Racing Post Trophy Preview

It was a very disappointing run from Prodigality yesterday and hopefully today we can find the winner of the Racing Post Trophy which is being run at Doncaster at 15:05. This is a small race with just seven runners in it competing for the £122,000 prize. It is going to be a very competitive affair. If we look at the figures of…

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National Hunt Jockeys: Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics

The autumn equinox has come and gone and the National Hunt season is well underway, so it’s time to take a look at the leading contenders for the British Jump Jockeys’ Championship and, specifically, when, where and for whom they do best during the season. At the time of writing, since the 2012/13 National Hunt season began on 29 April,…

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Post Race Analysis – What you should look for

I would say that the majority of punters are only interested in whether their bet won or lost. They don’t watch the race while it is happening, and they don’t watch it after it has happened either. This is a big mistake, especially when you are learning to bet profitably. If your bet has won then you have done your…

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Studying Form: Part I

Guest post written by Willy Weasel The subject of studying form is, by its very nature, a complex one, but it’s important not to get bogged down in trifling details. If you do, you’re likely to be distracted from more important factors that influence the outcome of horse races. Studying form is a means to an end, not an end…

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Fixed Stake Or Fixed Liability Laying

When we look at laying horses we have the option to place our bets to a fixed stake or a fixed liability. What is the difference between these two types of staking and is there a benefit to using one or the other? These are questions that I’m going to answer in todays article. First of all I want to…

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Measuring The Class Of A Horse

The class of a horse is often discussed in previews and by presenters, but what exactly is it? This is something that is very difficult to measure. Is it the personality of the horse, the ability of the horse or it’s breeding? I would say that it is a combination of all these things and then probably a bit of…

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Champion Stakes Preview: There Can Be Only One

Guest post written by Willy Weasel The Qipco Champion Stakes was originally run at Newmarket, but since 2011 it has become part of the Qipco British Champions Day at Ascot, where it’s the final race in the middle distance category of the Qipco British Champion Series. This year’s renewal is due off at 4.10 p.m. on Saturday 20th October. It’s…

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Finding Winners At Festivals

Personally, I believe that Festival betting requires a slightly different approach to the normal one. The reason is that Festivals only last for short defined periods of time, usually three or four days. I always advocate long-term betting. It takes a certain amount of time and quantity of selections before you can begin to see how the patterns of winning…

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