Guest post written by Ed from Value At The Races.
Have you ever fancied two horses in a race but sided with just the one and then watched it get beat on the line by the other one you fancied? This used to be the case for me until I discovered dutching.
There are two ways to Dutch. You can level stake your selections or you can place a certain amount of money on each to win a fixed amount.
There are some things we need to understand when dutching a race. By backing two 5/1 shots in a race we are actually betting at 2/1 for one of them to win. If we backed a 3/1, 4/1 and a 5/1 shot in a race then our bet will be returned at 8/13 should one win.
So, we need to remember that although the odds look attractive, by combining them we are reducing our returns. On this basis we need to make sure that we are hitting a much higher strike rate. It’s all very well finding a few 5/1 winners but if you are dutching a few in a race that returns your dutch bet at 8/13, you would need to find more than 62 winning bets from a hundred just to break even!
So how do we do the maths? Let’s use the example above.
Firstly we need to turn the fractional odds into decimals. We do this by dividing the left number by the right number and then adding 1. For example 3/1 = 4 (3 divided by one plus one =4). Therefore:
3/1 = 4.00
4/1 = 5.00
5/1 = 6.00
Now we need to convert these decimals into percentages. We do this by dividing a 100 by the decimal figure. For example 100/4.00 = 25%. Therefore:
4.00 = 25%
5.00 = 20%
6.00 = 16.67%
Next we add these percentages together which gives us 61.67%. You then divide 100 by 61.67% which gives us a decimal of 1.62 or 8/13 in fractions.
Now that we have gone through the maths, you can see that although the prices of each horse look good, by combining them we have created an odds on shot for ourselves.
I won’t go into the maths of calculating your dutches as there are some really good free calculators out there. I personally us oddschecker for my calculations.
It really is a good way to bet as you are increasing your chances of finding a winner, but remember you are doing so at reduced odds! Have a play about with it. You could look at the Racing Posts forecasts and paper trade the top three to see if you’d make money.
Any questions, leave me a reply and I’ll get back to you.