It was a very disappointing run from Prodigality yesterday and hopefully today we can find the winner of the Racing Post Trophy which is being run at Doncaster at 15:05.
This is a small race with just seven runners in it competing for the £122,000 prize. It is going to be a very competitive affair. If we look at the figures of runners over the same conditions then Trading Leather and Steeler have both run races within the last year. While the speed figures were similar Trading Leather achieved this in a class 1 race whereas Steeler put the figure in on a Class 5 race.
Widening our conditions to take into account similar going types and a slightly larger range of distances, we get all the runners with races.
First Cornerstone came first in the class one race on the 26th August, however the speed achieved was not strong and the distance was slightly shorter than today. It is possible that the longer distance may suit but we have no evidence of that and so this is a concern.
Birdman has had a lot of races this year and the performance has been quite volatile. However recently there have been two good finishes in class one races over similar distances to today. There is a definite preference for firmer ground which he is unlikely to get today though. While he has still finished in good positions on softer conditions the decrease in speed over softer ground is notable.
Sir Patrick Moore finished 1st on the 18th May at Newbury. Since then he has been racing in France with decreasing performance. While the Newbury race shows potential, it was a class 4 and there would still be some ground for it to make up in order to compete against todays runners. When we take into account the declining performance in France it makes it very difficult to back this runner.
Van Der Neer is also seeing a big rise in class. There has been a small decline in performance over the last two races but nothing to be too concerned about, especially since the last race was over soft ground and showed only a small decline in speed which would be expected. In both of these races he finished 1st and has certainly put in competitive figures. If he can rise to the new class then there is definitely the possibility of a contender here.
Looking at all of Trading Leather’s races we can see that on the 23rd September the speed figure achieved was lower than the other two races. However the class of this race was significantly lower as well and he had won easily by the half-way mark. There is no doubt that Trading Leather is a threat in todays race.
Steeler has achieved the highest speed figures of all the runners in the race, however these were achieved on firmer ground than he is likely to get today. These performances were both achieved in class one races and he came 1st and 2nd. On the 21st July he ran on good to soft ground and came 2nd in a class 5 race. The speed figure achieved though was of a similar level to his next race which was a class 2. This runner has so far shown himself to be consistent and in good form. This could be the horse to beat in this race.
Kingsbarns has only had one race which was at Navan and was a low class affair which he won easily. It was over the same distance and ground conditions as today so he will certainly like them. He is currently favourite in the market as well which indicates that he is expected to do well in the running. I generally don’t like to bet on runners who have not got a bigger track record when racing against others who do as I’ve found that they do not offer value in the long-term. While he is likely to be a competitor I will be going against this runner in favour of some of the others in the race.
Van Der Neer, Trading Leather and Steeler all look to be strong contenders. Looking at the market, it agrees with us and they are all very similarly priced. I would expect to see them bounce around a little bit during the day but without a huge amount of overall change. If I had to choose one runner then it would be between Steeler and Trading Leather. However I think that this is going to be a very tight affair and at the current odds we can achieve a 65% profit if we dutch these three runners and one of them wins. As I’ve decided to go against Kingsbarns this would cover the runners that I feel are going to be the contenders in the race and so this is the bet I’m going to be placing.
This is an ultra competitive race and it is going to be a battle to finish line. Let me know your thoughts on the race by leaving a comment below.