Guest post written by Eddie Lloyd
For most of us, to receive a new system in our inbox everyday of the week is the norm nowadays. Every new system promises of new riches and, if bought there and then, we can go out and buy a Porsche next week! What a load of rubbish!
As a professional gambler let me stress the point that there is no single system out there that will replace any salary, let alone make you rich.
The diversity of Horse Racing makes it impossible to rely on a few simple criteria to pick out those winners. So most of these systems become redundant after a period of time because the market alters itself to reduce the odds.
Let me explain:
Let us say a new system we have just bought focuses on a certain criteria where a horse needs to be race fit and run in the last 7 days, was favourite last time out and has a jockey who has won at least 3 out of their last 10 races (no joke I paid 20 quid for this system nearly 6 years ago!!). If you aren’t observing the odds and keeping a track of your bets, this system will not work as the market will be saturated with everyone else trying to back the qualifier.
There is never a system that will go “undetected” by the market and if lists of attributes are easily obtainable by the general public i.e. a system sold on-line, then the market will show the odds correctly after a period of time.
Let’s say that the above criteria highlighted winning horses at around 4 out of 10 races. We would need odds of 6/4 just to break even. When did you last buy a system that explained the strike rate in relation to the odds? A lot of the horses that fit into the above criteria are often a lot shorter that 6/4 and if they are bigger then it’s usually because the competition is a lot stronger.
Even if you just bet on the odds bigger than 6/4 you wouldn’t make a profit because your limiting the amount of bets and altering your strike rate.
What I’m trying to say is that the best way to make money from “systems” is to make your own one up.
Try focusing on particular criteria. Select horses for courses and see how certain horses have faired on certain racecourses or trainer statistics, try horses carrying certain weights. All this can be achieved by analysing past results with Adrian Massey’s site (http://adrianmassey.com/index.php) and seeing if the criteria have been profitable.
Play around with it on your own, after all this is how most of the systems out there for sale have been created. (If you use Adrian’s site a lot please look at his charitable work and see if you could contribute to this to help him out after all it is all for free!)
When you have focussed on a system then paper trade it for a hundred bets and see if you would make a profit from it. If not, but you found a lot of winners, what could be done differently to make a profit? Were some of the losers outsiders and should have not been bet on?
Keep a record of what you bet on and look for patterns. It takes a lot of trial and error but most of the systems bought on the internet can be discovered for free with a little hard work and when adapted to our own tastes can provide a small profit for our efforts.
Any questions please feel free to ask them below and I will endeavour to answer them and help you to make money from your betting. One thing is for sure though; you will not make money from buying systems on-line. Get creative and you can develop your own profit making systems!
I will be writing another article on strike rates and relating these to the odds that we bet on, hopefully showing you a way of only betting when the odds are in your favour!