Guest post written by Eddie Lloyd
For most of us, to receive a new system in our inbox everyday of the week is the norm nowadays. Every new system promises of new riches and, if bought there and then, we can go out and buy a Porsche next week! What a load of rubbish!
As a professional gambler let me stress the point that there is no single system out there that will replace any salary, let alone make you rich.
The diversity of Horse Racing makes it impossible to rely on a few simple criteria to pick out those winners. So most of these systems become redundant after a period of time because the market alters itself to reduce the odds.
Let me explain:
Let us say a new system we have just bought focuses on a certain criteria where a horse needs to be race fit and run in the last 7 days, was favourite last time out and has a jockey who has won at least 3 out of their last 10 races (no joke I paid 20 quid for this system nearly 6 years ago!!). If you aren’t observing the odds and keeping a track of your bets, this system will not work as the market will be saturated with everyone else trying to back the qualifier.
There is never a system that will go “undetected” by the market and if lists of attributes are easily obtainable by the general public i.e. a system sold on-line, then the market will show the odds correctly after a period of time.
Let’s say that the above criteria highlighted winning horses at around 4 out of 10 races. We would need odds of 6/4 just to break even. When did you last buy a system that explained the strike rate in relation to the odds? A lot of the horses that fit into the above criteria are often a lot shorter that 6/4 and if they are bigger then it’s usually because the competition is a lot stronger.
Even if you just bet on the odds bigger than 6/4 you wouldn’t make a profit because your limiting the amount of bets and altering your strike rate.
What I’m trying to say is that the best way to make money from “systems” is to make your own one up.
Try focusing on particular criteria. Select horses for courses and see how certain horses have faired on certain racecourses or trainer statistics, try horses carrying certain weights. All this can be achieved by analysing past results with Adrian Massey’s site (http://adrianmassey.com/index.php) and seeing if the criteria have been profitable.
Play around with it on your own, after all this is how most of the systems out there for sale have been created. (If you use Adrian’s site a lot please look at his charitable work and see if you could contribute to this to help him out after all it is all for free!)
When you have focussed on a system then paper trade it for a hundred bets and see if you would make a profit from it. If not, but you found a lot of winners, what could be done differently to make a profit? Were some of the losers outsiders and should have not been bet on?
Keep a record of what you bet on and look for patterns. It takes a lot of trial and error but most of the systems bought on the internet can be discovered for free with a little hard work and when adapted to our own tastes can provide a small profit for our efforts.
Any questions please feel free to ask them below and I will endeavour to answer them and help you to make money from your betting. One thing is for sure though; you will not make money from buying systems on-line. Get creative and you can develop your own profit making systems!
I will be writing another article on strike rates and relating these to the odds that we bet on, hopefully showing you a way of only betting when the odds are in your favour!
Ed
Hi Ed,
I totally agree with what you say, I think it is essential to have a porfolio of systems/methods, both backing and laying, but what is your opinion on the following 2 options.
Take the system you have purchased and modify it. In this way you could perhaps get the best of both worlds by taking someone else’s hard work and improving it, and getting you away from the masses.
Dusting the system off after leaving it on the shelf until the mass market has tried it and moved on to the next great money making system.
We are led to believe that some, not many, systems have actually stood the test of time. For example The Legacy is one of them, however, I have paper traded the Legacy several times over the last couple of years, and cant make a penny with it. Do you think that it can possibly be successful over a long period, or it is simply that in between marketing campaigns it does actually move back into profitability.
Look forward to your next article, and if you want to share any of the secrets of your success feel free, we won’t tell anyone, honest!LOL
Cheers,
Gordon
Thanks for the good advice Eddie. Of course I have bought plenty of useless systems in the past too, we’ve probably all made that mistake.
But there is another reason for not buying an off-the-shelf system. Think about it – if the seller of the system is so sure it is an amazingly profitable system – why would he be selling it to 200 people for ÂŁ20 a throw? He would automatically be reducing the odds he could get using the system himself, once the market is flooded with another 200 eager punters all backing the same horse. OK, he’s made ÂŁ4,000 from selling all those copies to the gullible (the sort of cash he no doubt claims he made with his system just last month on Betfair) – minus all the marketing costs – and he’s probably going to have to deal with a lot of angry customers. Not worth it. If his system is really good, he would not be selling it!
badger
This is an interesting one and I agree and disagree. I agree in that most of the systems are useless and they wouldn’t be selling it if it made money but on the other hand I know of people who have because they know the majority won’t use and/or it won’t affect their odds. Someone I know decided to release a strategy he had used successfully for free to nearly 500 people and not 1 of them stuck with it longer than a month even though he had made his living using it for years. People just don’t want to believe that something will work sometimes. Another scenario, extreme example, is releasing a system that focuses on highly bet favourites which work. Say 100 of the 200 use it and they are averaging as much as ÂŁ50 per bet each. That is ÂŁ5000 bet on the runner which is an insignificant amount when the runner has hundreds of thousands being bet on it. This is not going to affect the creator in any way unless each user is betting nearer to ÂŁ500 per bet and a bankroll of maybe 50 grand which is unlikely. This isn’t to say that most system sellers aren’t scamming, just some other reasons why someone choosing to sell/give away a strategy may not be losing out even if it works.
Well R,A another interesting one and to pick up on a very good point you’ve
made there, this means all those vendors who tells
you there are only 200 copys of their system to be sold becouse they dount want it
to affect the market are talking a load of bumkum
and it’s just a part of the sales hype i have began to take no notice of that anymore
in fact it just puts me off and their must be many many more like me so they are in away impeeding their own sales,
now a question do’s it take more weight of money
to shave a point off a favourite than a 14/1 shot. i’m thinking it takes less to move
an outsider but dos it take a lot more to move it 4 points
glen
Usually it takes less to move an outsider than a low priced horse for the simple reason that the odds are high because less money has been bet on it and so it doesn’t need as much to move it.
e.g. 100,000 has been matched on the favourite, even a few thousand is unlikely to move this. 1000 has been matched on an outsider, 100 may move this.
Hey guys,
An interesting debate has followed my article, that’s what I like!
I think that every single system I have ever bought has focused on the top end of the market. That usually means that there is no long term profit to be made. Imagine a system seller that wants to turn out a system with a high strike rate, because that is what sells, winners, winners, winners! Well I can tell you loads of winners but do the prices available mean I’m gonna show a profit? NO!
I know I keep banging on about this but if I found 40 winners out of a 100 bets and I was betting to 6/4 I would be breaking even. Great if I’m in it for fun but I’m not!
We need to be looking at value in the bets that we take.
Stay tuned and I’ll ramble some more about this!
As for price movements, Glen, an outsider will need more money than a Favourite to collapse its price. When we notice a gamble being placed and decide to “follow the money” we’re usually too late to get any value in the price! Therefore when we follow the gamble the price we take will never be big enough to recoup our losses on the gambles that aren’t landed!
Will be back next week with some more!
Ed
Ed, don’t you mean it takes more money staked to collapse the price of a favourite than an outsider?
Hi Gordon,
I’m not aware of the Legacy System but will have a look at it. I think it is possible to take someone else’s system and alter it to your own tastes. If that is the case though, you need to paper trade such a stance and see if it works.
I can’t stress enough the importance of taking the right price though. My Grandad always told me (a little emotional rememberence to the fine man that he was here!!) that it didn’t matter wether it was a winner, it mattered more about if the price was right!?! Beat the bookie, he said, get a bigger price than it should be and you’ll always be a winner!
Ed
I think I may have a copy of that system, not sure what it entails but seem to remember someone sending it to me a long time ago. Remind me and I shall send you over a copy if you are interested.
yes R, A
I think your version is more in keeping with my thoughts than Ed’s for the reasons you
have layed out i asked the question because some systems point you in the direction
of backing an outsider that has moved in by 4 points so wanted to know what weight of
money would move it in 4 points
Ed, i understand the point your making but i do think there is a little leway to be had as regards price and profit now i was always of the understanding that as long as you weren’t buying money i.e. 4/7 then a winner would show a profit but after looking at your example i.e. from a 100 bets i now see it has to be above even money now to make things easy for myself i look at staking whats on the right side to gain whats on the left side of the price and in doing this found you would be in front as apose to breaking even in your 6/4 example so i times your loosing (50)by the right hand side of the price (4)i.e 50*4=200 on loosing bets now the remaining 40 win bets would be timed by left side of price (6)by winning amount i.e 40*6=240 so in fact we’re( 40 )in front as apose to breaking even if i have done this rong then let me know always willing to learn
best regards
glen
You mention Adrian Massey(GOD), where has he gone.What’s he doing nowadays.Are there any similar sites on the net.Richard
Hi Richard, Adrian decided to close down his website after many years running it. There were various reasons for his decision but the site is still available however it is no longer being updated. Unfortunately there are no other free racing analysis websites online.