Guest post written by AM
If you are engaged in wagering on soccer, or you have an interest in this, you could get confused by the plethora of betting systems, strategies and alerts out there. There are so many sites that make all manner of promises to bettors. Many of them are bogus. But applying some good back-tested strategies as well as an element of personal analysis and common-sense may just be the best strategy any soccer bettor can use.
It never makes any kind of sense to follow some system blindly like a robot. How can any bettor with no understanding of how a soccer betting strategy works, no understanding of the risk-reward ratio, and near zero-knowledge of how certain physical and psychological factors that affect teams and players ever hope to make a dime betting on soccer? The odds are pretty slim. Many betting outcomes can be predicted correctly by taking a holistic, analytical look at such factors as team news (is a star player leaving the club?), injuries, roster changes (playing up to 3 matches a week for some teams involved in continental championships like the Champions League with the attendant fatigue), suspensions and recent form. Let me illustrate this.
What would happen to the ability of a team not to concede goals when its entire back line and substitute defenders are on the injury list? Sir Alex Ferguson of Manchester United found out the hard way at some point in the 2009/2010 season. They lost games and conceded goals attributed to errors from his makeshift defenders. Anyone who saw the team’s defensive frailty during that period and utilized this information in betting against Manchester United would definitely have made some money.
This is one example where some common sense reasoning supersedes trying to bet on some magical statistical formula. Having said this, let us look at some ways where you can swing some types of bets in your favour by just applying some common sense.
The Double Chance Bet
Here, you just need to bet on your team not losing. So you are betting on either a winning result or a draw. Of course the staking odds (and subsequently your payout) will be lower, but it is better than putting your money in a high-risk bet that could go against you. One of the best circumstances to deploy this bet is if the team you want to bet against deploys a very defensive approach (more defensive-minded players, a more defense-oriented formation). That team is very unlikely to win in such a situation. Even if the best they can get is a draw, you will win because you are using a double chance bet: win or draw for your team.
Bet on High Scoring Teams
Chelsea FC’s scoring form towards the end of the 2009/2010 English Premier League season was devastating. These guys were averaging five goals a game. A bet on Chelsea at that time against any team in the bottom third of the table would have been a sure banker. Lower staking odds, lower payout, but a sure banker. This works far better than trying to hit it big in high-risk bets that have a lower chance of success.
Betting Against Teams with Poor Away Records
I don’t watch Deportivo La Coruna often, but this is one team with a dreadful away record. I watched them recently against Real Sociedad (an average team with little ambition). As expected, Deportivo was trounced 3-0. There are teams like Deportivo in every league that just cannot help losing away from home. Betting against these teams has greater chance of going a bettor’s way.
These are just a few scenarios where common sense may be the difference between making money and going bust in soccer betting. Applying them could just be a bettor’s best betting strategy.