Today there is a lot of poor racing but I thought, since there were so many races taking place, that I would do a review of all the races at Sandown. That being said, I am going to be using the RA members features to do the analysis and will jump straight in with the 2.20!
2.20 – Annington Amateur Riders’ Handicap Hurdle (Military Amateur Riders)
Dens Maschine and Dormouse both have good Contender strengths, but recent performance for Dens Maschine is much better. Dormouse has been declining in performance over similar race conditions and while capable is of concern.
Homer Run could perform but seems to prefer firmer going and so I will remove from contention. Well Green is definitely a potential contender but likes to fall, assuming this doesn’t happen there is a strong possibility here.
The Pretender performed well recently at the same conditions and this could indicate an improvement over the same conditions again. Another runner that can’t be ignored.
An improvement in form on all weather for Verteux but not so keen on the softer going over hurdles, has a strong contender figure and good predicted speed. We shall need to keep in the frame for the moment. However Alaghiraar has nothing to indicate any potential in this race and can be removed without concern.
The big drops in class come from Dens Maschine and Vertueux. There is little to choose between the but Nicholls has a strong 22% win rate in these exact races and so his horse The Pretender cannot be ignored.
Selection: Dens Maschine, The Pretender and Vertueux are all possible winners. If I had to narrow the field down more it would be between Dens Maschine and The Pretender both of whom have the potential to improve but with The Pretender just tipping the edge with the recent performance.
2.55 – Charles Stanley Handicap Chase
In this small field we have 3 form improvers in Novikov, Amaury De Lusignan and Owner Occupier. However Owner Occupier has been decreasing in performance recently over similar conditions and so will not be considered.
Quipe Me Posted performed well over similar conditions recently and is dropping in class, but hasn’t won a race for over a year but certainly has the potential. Baseball Ted has shown a steady decline in performance, has a low contender strength and I will be removing from contention.
Amaury De Lusignan has been going from strength to strength and looks set to take all in this race while Novikov’s recent performances have been less than exciting.
Selection: Amaury De Lusignan has to be the only serious selection in this race but at odds-on I would be tempted to go each-way on Quip Me Posted.
3.30 – Grand Military Gold Cup (Amateur Riders’ Chase)
With more runners in this race we need to narrow the field. Battlecry, Sizing America and Vinceitore all have the potential for improvement under these conditions using our Winning Improvers method.
Hoo La Baloo is a course and distance winner and has proven that the going suits perfectly. Last performances were very strong and with a top contender strength this runner has to be a serious threat.
Battlecry is a distance winner and while not the best going for him, has no problems with running on it. A strong contender rating means that he needs to stay in. Sizing America, while being a potential improver, would need to improve dramatically on these ground conditions for this race and so I am going to remove him from contention.
Selections: Hoo La Baloo while not having run for a while looks to be good for the race and I expect to perform well. Vincetoire has been improving over similar conditions recently and has seen a speed improvement as well. Both of these selections would be included in my bets.
4.05 – Charles Stanley Handicap Hurdle
I am going to narrow the field using our 52%-78% strategy in this race which leaves me with Semi Colon, Kasbadall, Hildisvini, Hawkes Point and Heathcote to look at.
Semi Colon is a strong contender and has good speed over the distance. He has proven himself on the going at the distance and has strong potential. Kasbadall has been declining which is a concern but a big drop in class could help to see off the others.
Hildisvini has been going from strength to strength in similar races and has a very high win rate. With this type of improvement we cannot ignore this runner. Hawkes Point doesn’t give us much to go on but may prefer heavier going and a longer distance while Heathcote has the potential but definitely prefers a firmer going.
Selections: Hildisvini and Semi Colon will be my selections. I am going against Kasbadall, even with the drop in class I feel that both these runners could out-perform him.
4.40 – Queen Elizabeth The Queen Mother Memorial Hunters’ Chase
Just three runners to consider in this race and of these only two, I Have Dreamed and Gwanko, are worth looking at. Gwanko is currently odds-on and I Have Dreamed is 8.6.
Gwanko has shown in the past that today’s going can upset him and I Have Dreamed has shown that he likes it. In a race like this, this is enough information for me to go with I Have Dreamed despite the fact he has shown improvement in the last two races and hasn’t won recently. These odds are too high in this race and so offer value.
Selection: I Have Dreamed is the selection in this race.
5.15 – SSAFA Forces Help ‘National Hunt’ Novices’ Hurdle
The last race of the day at Sandown has 8 runners. I am going to take a different approach this time and focus on the runners that have strong connections under very similar conditions.
Zhama Zhama has the strongest connections in the field over these conditions, a strong contender figure, is ranked 1 in our 52%-78% strategy and has proven himself over the distance and going. If coming back with everything in place then could win this race easily.
Oscara Dara we have less information for but has a strong contender figure. Recent performances are good and cannot be ignored. Cousin Khee won a similar race in January but is volatile and this is a concern. There is no doubt that the potential is there but I am unsure whether I would happily place my money on him.
Selections: Zhama Zhama would be my choice in this race with everything pointing to a good run.
Let me know what you think by leaving a comment below.