Royal Ascot 2012 Day 4 – Live

The weather is just getting worse! This makes it for very hard betting and under any normal circumstances I wouldn’t be betting. However I use a separate bankroll for festivals, and I always suggest that you do the same as well, and I am going to be doing my best to see if we can get some of the outsiders coming in for us today.

Back, as usual, closer to the off time. I have also been considering doing a live web-radio broadcast for the next big festival. Let me know if this would be of interest to you.

2.30 Albany Stakes

The going is being described as Good To Soft on the straight and Soft on the round course. The wind is also picking up and it is going to cause some problems for a lot of runners.

Today I am going to be focusing on horses that have proven they can run on the going and also looking for stamina to help if they can battle against the wind. It is going to be even harder to assess the 2 year olds running. Let’s see how we do!

I have shortlisted four runners in this race that have had runs over the going conditions.

All On Red, Judy In Disguise, Newfangled and Tassle

I am going to reduce this to 3 runners by removing All On Red as his figures are not as strong as the others.

The current favourite is Newfangled and he looks strong, having run a very good figure over a similar going before.

I can’t get away from Newfangled in this race and Judy In Disguise being the next best.

I will be betting…

Newfangled to win and Judy In Disguise either in the place market or each-way depending on which is going to offer the best place odds.

I have achieved better odds in the place market for Judy In Disguise and so the bet has been placed there.

Sendmyrose is down in the stalls. Eddie Ahern looks to have hurt his leg. Horse looks to be fine and is out of the race. Judy In Disguise may be removed if she was harmed in the fall. She is going back in.

Lovely win from Newfangled. Judy In Disguise faded, probably wouldn’t have placed but the problem at the beginning would not have helped, I will watch her on the next outing.

3.05 King Edward VII Stakes

While we are waiting for this race to start I am going to start looking at the next.

This is an interesting race and on normal conditions I would be expecting the variance to be small. This could be upset today of course.

Astrology is odds-on favourite and I am going to be going against him.

Noble Mission and Thomas Chippendale are both on my shortlist.

I think Thomas Chippendale may have the edge but I am going to look at the markets to determine how to bet on them.

I am going to dutch both runners. Looking at how best to bet them in the place market. I am not going to be betting either in the place market.

Thomas Chippendale has shortened quite heavily in the market.

Another winning race for us today with Thomas Chippendale returning on our dutch.

3.45 Coronation Stakes

There is not much to say about this race. For me there is just one runner in Homecoming Queen. I will be placing a win bet on this horse. If you are looking for a higher odds runner then you may want to consider Samitar or Cardigan but I have doubts about whether either will be able to run the distance over this going.

Very disappointed with the fade from Homecoming Queen, I will be interested to hear from the jockey as to what happened.

4.25 Wolferton Handicap

Without too much to analyse on the previous race I am going to start investigating the 4.25. We may as well get ahead if we can.

This is a tough race, at an initial look I have shortlisted Hyper, Qaraaba and Shirvino. Looking at the market we also need to include Gatewood and Mijhaar.

Of these runners Gatewood and Qaraaba are showing improvement in form and Qaraaba is also showing a speed increase.

Hyper I don’t think will have the class to win the race and I am going to remove him from the contenders.

Sirvino can be fairly volatile and hasn’t won a race for a long time and so I am also going to remove this runner.

This leaves us with three runners Qaraaba, Gatewood and Mijhaar. Qaraaba looks to be the strongest to me and the one I shall be looking to bet. I will be looking at the market to determine the best way to bet in this race.

It is going to be an easy race to bet on for me, I will be betting on Qaraaba each-way. This bet will give us a nice profit on a win and our stake back on a place.

Good run from Gatewood. Qaraaba needed a few more lengths and may well have been up there. Almost got the tricast.

5.00 Queen’s Vase

There is 15 minutes until the previous race goes off and so I am going to start looking at this one.

This is a long race, especially considering the going and stamina is going to be key. None of the runners have got much proof of performing over the distance, let alone over the distance on soft ground.

I am focusing on five runners that I think all have the potential to go the distance under the conditions. These are…

Ed De Gas, Estimate, Macbeth, Minimise Risk and Spanish Wedding

Ed De Gas has been declining slightly and that gives us some concern, especially with the difficulties that this race is likely to pose.

Estimate looks to be strong and has a good potential. The next best figures to Ed De Gas but has been improving and ran well over soft ground in May. Todays race is another 4 furlongs longer but this is going to be the same challenge that the rest of the runners are going to have.

Macbeth has not yet won a race but performed excellently over heavy going recently. Again the race was significantly shorter but if he can stay the distance, which is certainly possible, then there is every chance he can contend.

Minimise Risk has been declining in form and that worries me. There is the potential but I think I prefer others over this runner.

Spanish Wedding will need to improve slightly but has every chance.

This leaves me with Estimate, Macbeth and Spanish Wedding.

Spanish Wedding is a non-runner leaving me with Estimate and Macbeth. I shall be dutching these two and doing the forecast.

A great run by Estimate that has guaranteed us a profit on the day whatever happens.

5.35 Buckingham Palace Stakes

This is a big race to finish off the day with 32 declared runners. However, there are also 9 non-runners due to the conditions giving us 23 runners.

My initial shortlist for the race includes Decent Fella, Global Village, Imperial Djay, Imperial Guest and Thunderball.

Global Village could be very strong but I am concerned that the going may be too soft for him.

Imperial Djay has shown significant improvement recently and certainly has the potential to run well in this race. As with Global Village he prefers a slightly better going and it is possible that it is going to be too soft for him in this race.

Imperial Guest I think will need to improve in order to contend in this race and so I am going to remove him.

Thunderball has been a little volatile recently and although in races like today this gives them more chance if they are on their game I do not like to have my money on them. I will be removing Thunderball from contention.

This leaves me with Global Village, Decent Fella and Imperial Djay. I am going to go for 20/80 bets on all of them and look at the exotic market potential.

Overall Roundup

It was a good day for us today. We made a return on investment of 20% on the day, which has brought us nicely into the green for the Royal Ascot festival.

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. You can also check out my personal blog or my personal Instagram account.


  1. 230 newfangled top rated won on soft tassel also won on soft amazonas rated high but the ground is the problem taking chance






  4. ok mike,its a former pupil of puntology (top draw course) since my course i have done brilliant in all aspects of my racing/betting,anyway il be with you till the last race,

    1. Hi Jules, great to have you onboard and to hear you are doing so well since the course 🙂

    1. Thanks Mark, I am looking into the possibilities and if there is enough interest we shall give it a trial at the next festival meeting.

  5. Michael
    Why have you discounted Sendmylovetorose? She won a race at Navan by over 5 lengths in soft going.

  6. Unless I have good reason I don’t like to use the figures on Irish races over here. I find that, in the long-run, when I do they end up producing a loss. In these situations I also use the market to guide me and while there is definitely a chance of contending I prefer the other two. The favourite I think is the strongest and the odds on Judy In Disguise seem to be very high to me (and they are slowly dropping).

  7. Newfangled did the trick so a good start. Maybe Judy In Disguise got a kick when they were in the stalls. Good effort though.

    1. A good start, lets hope it continues. Judy In Disguise definitely got a kick in the stalls which is why they brought her out. She started well but faded and that could be because the ground is too soft for her but she also may have been shaken by the incident in the stalls.

  8. Live webinar is a brillant idea. Would you also show how you interpret your ratings and make the final selections.

    1. Thanks James. It would be a web radio broadcast to start. I would intend on discussing how I am using my ratings and going through the information to come to a final selection.

    1. Thanks, I should have gone for the forecast, not sure why I didn’t think of that!

  9. I think Gatewood will win this and Mijhaar will chase him home.
    I hope so anyway. We’ll know in 35 mins.

    1. I was hoping that Macbeth would have held on longer but a great run from Estimate.

  10. Sorry but with visitors bit hard to communicate.
    I failed to get anything placed in the last at ascot.
    But I did get all the other winners including 2nd’s
    In some. Fallen for you was a good e/w
    Good Luck for tomorrow.

    1. I hope you had a good day with the visitors. Sounds like you had a good day on the betting front 🙂

  11. nice one micheal i ended the day 235 in profit i used yours and my picks,on the 230 betfair didnt take bet in time grrrrr it took my place on though premier steps ( i lost out on o’brien 20-1 winner grrrr due to betfair not picking up bet) only choker today was i didnt bet thomas chippendale,1 of yours,i also didnt do qaraaba (very unlucky it took him an age to get out) so odds and evens i had the last as well so see you tomorrow if your about, thanks jules.

  12. Yes thanks, Doing a spot of evening race watching as i do not understand a word of Polish.
    Radio broadcast sounds like a good idea. :0)

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