The third day of Royal Ascot and our third day of live blogging. It has been a tough festival so far, but we have managed to get a small profit. I am hoping that this afternoon we can build on this profit to come away with a good finish to the day.
On the first day we broke even, the second day we made a return on investment of 2.88%. I am looking forward to this afternoon and hope you will join me.
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I shall be back at around 1.45pm for the first race.
2:30 Norfolk Stakes
A bit late starting today as I was trying to get an assessment of the going from someone at the track. But we are on now and lets get some selections in this first race.
I am going to be looking for runners today, assuming the ground doesn’t dry out too much, who are maybe longer shots but could perform well on the softer going.
The shortlist for this race is…
Ahern, Cay Verde, Gale Force Ten, Reckless Abandon and Storm Moon
Cay Verde I don’t think is going to have the class to win this race and so will be removed.
Reckless Abandon hasn’t performed over softer going and so I will remove from the contenders list.
Storm Moon has been declining in performance recently and so I will remove him as well.
This leaves me with Ahern and Gale Force Ten in this race. How to bet?
I will be doing a dutch bet and a 20/80 on each. I will also be looking at getting involved in a forecast if the return is high enough.
We only just missed that race with Gale Force Ten but got him in the 20/80 bet.
3.05 Ribblesdale Stakes
Okay lets get involved in the next one. The first race has helped to confirm our thoughts on the going which is very useful.
Looking at runners that have shown to perform competitively over the going gives us…
The Fugue, Princess Highway, Kailani and Hazel Lavery
All these runners have been showing an increase in performance and although Kailani looks to have the edge on the going, the improvement has been slower than the other two. Princess Highway looks to be slightly lower on the list but indications are that the ground is going to suit and if she gets the run she could storm this race.
I will dutch all 4 runners and place bet all except The Fugue.
A lovely profit made in that race with an excellent run from Princess Highway. On to the next.
3.45 Gold Cup
This is the race that everyone has been waiting for, lets see what we have.
I think there could be some surprises in this race. Gulf Of Naples is the clear performer over this ground with Caucus and Nehaam coming next. Gulf Of Naples has been improving and looks like like a good possibility and at current odds certainly seems to be overpriced.
Caucus I think has too much to make up to compete even having performed over the going and so will be removed. Nehaam is unlikely to have the class to win this race even though the going is on his side.
Of course, we now need to look at Fame And Glory and Opinion Poll.
Fame And Glory is obviously a strong horse but I think the odds are far to lower, especially considering the ground conditions in this race. I will not be betting on him.
Opinion Poll would certainly be my preference over Fame And Glory and I prefer him from these two but not sure I prefer him enough to place a bet.
I would like to take another look at Colour Vision as I have some figures showing very strong improvements. He has shown form improvement but speed decline, while I think he could perform well, with the conditions today and the speed decline I wouldn’t want to place my money on him.
How am I going to bet…
I will be going for an each-way on Gulf Of Naples.
I am also considering going for a bet on Opinion Poll to beat Fame And Glory if I can get anyone to take my bet.
I will also be doing a forecast wheel on Opinion Poll and Gulf Of Naples.
Gulf Of Naples has dropped massively since I bet on him. If you are on him I hope you got the earlier odds.
A great run for Gulf Of Naples, he missed out but proved he was way over-priced. Proven that I shouldn’t have removed Colour Vision but a great race.
4.25 Britannia Stakes
This is a big race, I am going to remove a lot of runners and will be back in a minute with some thoughts.
A very tough race and I am going to be going for some very big priced horses in it.
Looking at performances from runners over similar ground conditions I am left with…
Apostle, Lord Of The Shadows and Van Ellis
Of those Van Ellis looks the strongest and has been showing improvement recently. Apostle seems to have been on a decline recently which is a concern and Lord Of The Shadows would have to go back to form of last August to win.
I will be betting on Van Ellis from these runners and looking at some of the others again.
Of the rest I am also going to be betting on Bronze Angel who has been improving over similar conditions recently and has some potential.
I will be betting both each-way.
A 30% profit made on Bronze Angel.
5.00 Tercentenary Stakes
Quite a few shorter priced runners in this race with a number who have got performances over the ground.
Initial list gives us…
Cavaleiro, Crius, Energizer, Goldoni, Mukhadram and Starboard
Looking in more detail I have reduced this to four runners by removing Cavalerio and Mukhadram. I am unsure about Energizer because I don’t have enough data on the horse, I am waiting to see the horse to form an opinion.
Starboard is a non-runner leaving us with Crius, Energizer and Goldoni.
Of these my preference is for Crius.
I shall be going for an each-way bet on Crius and a cover bet on Energizer.
I missed the beginning of the race so don’t know what happened to Crius. Luckily our saver bet on Energizer covered us in this race.
5.35 King George V Stakes
Okay we are on to the last race of the day. Let’s see if we can make a profit in the last one.
Using the same methods as I have been using all day I have reduced the initial field down to 8 runners, I now need to look at these in more detail.
Of these runners…
Commitment, Handsome Man, Nicholascopernicus, Pilgrims Rest, Rocktherunway
Are the strongest over similar conditions in the last 90 days.
If Rougemont can last the trip then he is a potential as well.
I am going to remove Handsome Man over concerns with the going.
Rocktherunway has shown promise but figures have been declining and this gives cause for concern. I am going to remove him from contention.
This leaves us with 5 runners.
Of these Sparkling Portrait has the edge with the trainer, jockey and trainer/jockey combo.
However Nicholascopernicus has won over the same distance and going before, which is a strong positive.
I am finding it hard to choose between these runners and a dutch across them produces more than 100% profit so I am going to be dutching them.
I particularly like Sparkling Portrait and Rougemont as well so will be having a place bet on them.
The place on Rougemont meant that we only suffered a small loss in the final race.
I hope you have had a good day and thank you for getting involved. See you tomorrow.