Advice

Royal Ascot 2012 Day 3 – Live

The third day of Royal Ascot and our third day of live blogging. It has been a tough festival so far, but we have managed to get a small profit. I am hoping that this afternoon we can build on this profit to come away with a good finish to the day.

On the first day we broke even, the second day we made a return on investment of 2.88%. I am looking forward to this afternoon and hope you will join me.

Don’t forget that to see the latest comments you will need to refresh this page regularly.

I shall be back at around 1.45pm for the first race.

2:30 Norfolk Stakes

A bit late starting today as I was trying to get an assessment of the going from someone at the track. But we are on now and lets get some selections in this first race.

I am going to be looking for runners today, assuming the ground doesn’t dry out too much, who are maybe longer shots but could perform well on the softer going.

The shortlist for this race is…

Ahern, Cay Verde, Gale Force Ten, Reckless Abandon and Storm Moon

Cay Verde I don’t think is going to have the class to win this race and so will be removed.

Reckless Abandon hasn’t performed over softer going and so I will remove from the contenders list.

Storm Moon has been declining in performance recently and so I will remove him as well.

This leaves me with Ahern and Gale Force Ten in this race. How to bet?

I will be doing a dutch bet and a 20/80 on each. I will also be looking at getting involved in a forecast if the return is high enough.

We only just missed that race with Gale Force Ten but got him in the 20/80 bet.

3.05 Ribblesdale Stakes

Okay lets get involved in the next one. The first race has helped to confirm our thoughts on the going which is very useful.

Looking at runners that have shown to perform competitively over the going gives us…

The Fugue, Princess Highway, Kailani and Hazel Lavery

All these runners have been showing an increase in performance and although Kailani looks to have the edge on the going, the improvement has been slower than the other two. Princess Highway looks to be slightly lower on the list but indications are that the ground is going to suit and if she gets the run she could storm this race.

I will dutch all 4 runners and place bet all except The Fugue.

A lovely profit made in that race with an excellent run from Princess Highway. On to the next.

3.45 Gold Cup

This is the race that everyone has been waiting for, lets see what we have.

I think there could be some surprises in this race. Gulf Of Naples is the clear performer over this ground with Caucus and Nehaam coming next. Gulf Of Naples has been improving and looks like like a good possibility and at current odds certainly seems to be overpriced.

Caucus I think has too much to make up to compete even having performed over the going and so will be removed. Nehaam is unlikely to have the class to win this race even though the going is on his side.

Of course, we now need to look at Fame And Glory and Opinion Poll.

Fame And Glory is obviously a strong horse but I think the odds are far to lower, especially considering the ground conditions in this race. I will not be betting on him.

Opinion Poll would certainly be my preference over Fame And Glory and I prefer him from these two but not sure I prefer him enough to place a bet.

I would like to take another look at Colour Vision as I have some figures showing very strong improvements. He has shown form improvement but speed decline, while I think he could perform well, with the conditions today and the speed decline I wouldn’t want to place my money on him.

How am I going to bet…

I will be going for an each-way on Gulf Of Naples.

I am also considering going for a bet on Opinion Poll to beat Fame And Glory if I can get anyone to take my bet.

I will also be doing a forecast wheel on Opinion Poll and Gulf Of Naples.

Gulf Of Naples has dropped massively since I bet on him. If you are on him I hope you got the earlier odds.

A great run for Gulf Of Naples, he missed out but proved he was way over-priced. Proven that I shouldn’t have removed Colour Vision but a great race.

4.25 Britannia Stakes

This is a big race, I am going to remove a lot of runners and will be back in a minute with some thoughts.

A very tough race and I am going to be going for some very big priced horses in it.

Looking at performances from runners over similar ground conditions I am left with…

Apostle, Lord Of The Shadows and Van Ellis

Of those Van Ellis looks the strongest and has been showing improvement recently. Apostle seems to have been on a decline recently which is a concern and Lord Of The Shadows would have to go back to form of last August to win.

I will be betting on Van Ellis from these runners and looking at some of the others again.

Of the rest I am also going to be betting on Bronze Angel who has been improving over similar conditions recently and has some potential.

I will be betting both each-way.

A 30% profit made on Bronze Angel.

5.00 Tercentenary Stakes

Quite a few shorter priced runners in this race with a number who have got performances over the ground.

Initial list gives us…

Cavaleiro, Crius, Energizer, Goldoni, Mukhadram and Starboard

Looking in more detail I have reduced this to four runners by removing Cavalerio and Mukhadram. I am unsure about Energizer because I don’t have enough data on the horse, I am waiting to see the horse to form an opinion.

Starboard is a non-runner leaving us with Crius, Energizer and Goldoni.

Of these my preference is for Crius.

I shall be going for an each-way bet on Crius and a cover bet on Energizer.

I missed the beginning of the race so don’t know what happened to Crius. Luckily our saver bet on Energizer covered us in this race.

5.35 King George V Stakes

Okay we are on to the last race of the day. Let’s see if we can make a profit in the last one.

Using the same methods as I have been using all day I have reduced the initial field down to 8 runners, I now need to look at these in more detail.

Of these runners…

Commitment, Handsome Man, Nicholascopernicus, Pilgrims Rest, Rocktherunway

Are the strongest over similar conditions in the last 90 days.

If Rougemont can last the trip then he is a potential as well.

I am going to remove Handsome Man over concerns with the going.

Rocktherunway has shown promise but figures have been declining and this gives cause for concern. I am going to remove him from contention.

This leaves us with 5 runners.

Of these Sparkling Portrait has the edge with the trainer, jockey and trainer/jockey combo.

However Nicholascopernicus has won over the same distance and going before, which is a strong positive.

I am finding it hard to choose between these runners and a dutch across them produces more than 100% profit so I am going to be dutching them.

I particularly like Sparkling Portrait and Rougemont as well so will be having a place bet on them.

The place on Rougemont meant that we only suffered a small loss in the final race.

I hope you have had a good day and thank you for getting involved. See you tomorrow.

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. You can also check out my personal blog or my personal Instagram account.

64 Comments

  1. Ascot today seems like a Divers convention. I drove past Lambourne at about 2 a.m. this morning and it was Really horrendous Rain. I can not see ~Good Ground ~at Ascot.
    it rained all night I got to bed at about 4.30 and it was really chucking down. I am in Oxfordshire.

    So once again, I am going to go for a 5pm Race as my main bet of the day, Ascot is reputed to dry out quick? By 5pm if it does not rain again I might get lucky.

    Double it with another course not that I will do any better with the Ground.
    My each way double already on, is:- AARTI and Tales of Grimm.

    I have gone for a very small stakes Trifecta in the Big race At Ascot.

    Fame and Glory with Sadlers Rock and Colour vision. Opinion Poll is of interest too, of course but keeping down the stakes on snorkel and fins ground.
    I have gone for small stakes at Rippon and Warwick and mainly straight wins, it is a case of wait and see what happens with the Rain. Ascot for me is not really worth getting into in these conditions. I would just say that I did get some outsider e/w’s right yesterday so I might be ok with these two if you want to have a look at them but I think I got the best price.

    1. Thanks for the update on the ground conditions Liam. Ascot does traditionally dry out quite quickly but we will need to keep an eye on it. In fact with the ground conditions being soft we may be able to pick up some outsiders.

  2. 2.30 cay verde
    3.05 the fugue
    3.45 fame and glory
    4.25 trader jack.
    5.00 tales of grimm
    5.35 gabrial the great.
    I HAVE MIXED TMEM UP IN LUCKY 15s WITH A E/W ROLL UP

    1. Thanks for letting us know Henry. Good luck with them and I shall look forward to seeing if I have any of your selections in my bets as well.

  3. Good afternoon,

    I have analysed the Gold Cup 3.45 p.m. at Ascot today. The Best Jockeys are J P Murtagh,J P Spencer and W Buick.

    The Best Trainers are A P O Brien, M Tregoning, J Gosden, and M Al Zarooni.

    This is what my software has produced. It has produced seven horses out of the eleven that are running today and I am expecting the Winner from one of these. The choice is yours which one is best. I have picked Fame And Glory as he gave a Solid effort on his latest start and Won this race last Year although the odds may be poor value. Thank you.

  4. Good afternoon,

    Here are some of my software selections for today at Ascot.

    2.30 p.m. Annunciation, Cay Verde, Gale Force,Jubilee Brig, Mister Marc. I am expecting one of these to Win this race. More to follow time permitting.Thank you.

  5. I think Gale Force Ten will win. Its won on this type of going, and in early prices this morning, Ladbrokes had it at 5/1 when others were 15/2. That is often an indicator. We’ll soon know anyway!

  6. Good afternoon all, I intend to sit back and enjoy the interaction with all your lot.
    I will get straight to the point I have a win double antepost bet running on Fame and Glory
    there first leg of the bet was Big Bucks back in the Cheltenham festival so my bet

    is e250 dble win on Big Bucks 4/5 and Fame Glory at 9/4 combined odds is 6.5/1

    Should I just keep it simple and lay my stake back on Fame and Glory, I dont want to
    start flipping about and maybe its about keeping it simple.
    best regards Shane

  7. Good afternoon,

    Ascot 3.05 p.m. Momentary, Shirocco Star, The Fugue and Vow.

    3.45 p.m. Opinion Poll, Gulf Of Naples this is what another software of mine has produced for this race.

    4.25 p.m.Kahruman, Switzerland, Frog Hollow, Fast Or Free.

    5.00 p.m. Energizer Grandeur, Starboard, Stipulate.

    5.35 p.m. Open Water, Rocktherunway, Pilgrims Rest and Nicholascopernicus.

    These selections are from a diffterent sftware to the First Post I made earlier. Thank you.

  8. Ascot Gold 3.45pm What price will Fame and Glory be sent off?

    One way I may play it to back Fame glory now at 1.98, could he possibly
    go off at 1.6 therefor I would just lay the stake over instead of just forefiting a
    straight lay?

  9. The “Don’t Read Any Betting Systems…” pop-up keeps popping up. Can it be temporarily disabled?
    Paul

  10. Good afternoon,

    I have now analysed the Ascot 3.05 p.m. from my FIRST software.

    The Best Trainers are J Gosden, M Bell, A P O Brien and W Haggas.

    The Best Jockeys Martin Harley R Hughes, Hayley Turner, W Buick, R L Moore and J P Murtagh.

    I expect the Winner to come from one of these. The choice is yours. Thank you.

  11. Is the dutching that you do done with stakes in strict in accordance with odds, or is it just the same stake on each selection.
    Paul

    1. I am dutching in accordance to the odds. If I am betting to the same stake I will say I am backing all selections.

      1. Well done Michael,

        I had PH as main bet, and joined you in the dutch and place. Nice! Out of interest, when dutching Hazel Lav I couldn’t place a stake of under £2. Any way around that? I was splitting a £20 stake and needed to place £1.49 @ 30.

        BTW, the pop up is still, well…popping up every time I refresh. Any chance of disabling it completely when doing these live feeds?

        Cheers

        Eamon

        1. Hi Eamon, sorry I disabled the wrong thing! It shouldn’t pop-up anymore.

          You can get around the £2 limit by placing a back bet of £2 at odds of 1000 (obviously this won’t work for horses with odds of near 1000). It will go into the market unmatched. Then go to the bet and change the stake by adding whatever you want to bet to the £2 already there. e.g. for a £1.49 bet you would change the stake to £3.49. Submit this and you will get 2 bets appearing, the original £2 bet and the new £1.49 bet. Cancel the original £2 bet and change the odds on the £1.49 bet to what you want and re-submit.

  12. Well I kept the sensible Royal Ascot had on and layed my stake back on Fame and Glory, he never looked happy and obviously the rain has played its part!

  13. Could what you are doing live now for your viewers be done say mid morning to the same effect, but proving the advantage of being able to use BOG bookies. If so, is that what you would normally recommend.
    Paul

    1. I can do something similar but I am actually following live and placing my bets while I go. If you can get bets on at BOG then that is what I would recommend as recently BOG has been outperforming Betfair.

      Saturday’s races will all be done earlier in the morning as I have to attend a funeral and so can’t be online during the day, but tomorrow will be similar to today.

      Doing them live means that I get a lot more information on conditions as the meeting goes on 🙂

  14. Not had a bet but impressed with what you have done, new to the site I am sure I will be around for a while. Well done today and thx , would be great on some sort of live webinar.

    1. Thanks Carl. I have done some webinars in the past but more about betting topics rather than live races. I am looking into the possibility of running a live podcast for the next festival though.

  15. hughes went the old willie carson route under the trees when it was soft going but dont think it is soft enough for that

  16. Just to say there was a debate about two Haggs runners one to win and the other not sure.
    well AARIT did not win but the other Core…. something did I was on it.
    I did decide to put Opinion Poll into my Trifecta at the last moment and got it up but I only did it for 50p stakes but profit is profit so 12 got me 56.

    Tales Grimm well like I said it would be at Ascot.
    Fame and Glory did not cut it
    Nor did Tales Grimm and of course my other course AARIT failed too so no suprise there.

    I am shareing five horses in the 5.35 with the Family:- Roughemount, Anomaly, Uriah Heep, Fennell Bay and Nicholascopernicus. so lets see how the ground is now after the downpour?

  17. Yes we are happy Rougemont for me nice profit 21 for 6
    Step daught 15 for 5
    and are friendly hairdresser got the winner 51 for 3

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