Queen Mother Champion Chase 2012 Review

With the major race today having eight runners we are in a position to be able to take a bit longer looking at all the potential contenders for our bet. Yesterday we managed to find the winner of the major race and made a nice profit, hopefully we can do the same today!

I am going to start the analysis using the RA Improver Graphs.

Members get this graph in a CSV format as well for those who like to number crunch but I think it is more suitable in the graph format for this post. The important thing to note are the two lines at the top of the graph, a green and blue one.

The blue line indicates the estimated required speed to win the race and the green indicates the fastest runners previous speed. Not all runners are shown because this is only for horses who have run in similar conditions in the last 90 days. There is a complete strategy which just uses this graph to make a good profit but today we are going to be using it to remove a couple of runners.

As you can see I have circled I’m So Lucky and Wishfull Thinking. While I’m So Lucky shows some improvement, it is very gradual and well below the blue line for expected required speed performance today, Wishfull Thinkings run is even lower and neither have come first or second in the races they ran in (indicated by the bottom the number). I am going to remove these two runners from contention immediately for this reason.

If we sort the race card by Contender Strengths the top three are Big Zeb, Finian’s Rainbow and Sizing Europe. The information we are provided with under each runners name shows that in terms of winning strike rate and days since last won there is not a huge difference. The recent form also doesn’t provide us with much of an insight.

However we can see that the RL of Big Zeb is significantly higher than the other runners, RL predicts the speed of horse, and the speed bar shows a significant speed improvement. If you go back to the first screenshot with the graph you can see that Big Zeb is improving with the light blue line. This means that IF this improvement continues then he could be a very strong contender.

Gauvain has two falls in the last 5 races which does not bode well and will put him off my contender list and the race is likely to be between the three runners mentioned above as looking at the RA Graphs we can see that Kauto Stone has a severly declining performance and Realt Dubh would have to make some serious improvements since the last race just under a year ago to contend.

Looking at the connections we can see…

While Finian’s Rainbow’s trainer does not have the greatest strike rate under these conditions when paired with B J Geraghty as the jockey they have a massive 42.86% strike rate and have made a positive ROI.

Sizing Europe’s jockey performs well under these conditions and also makes a positive ROI while Big Zeb has less connection runs but the trainer has made a huge ROI. It is going to be very difficult to select between these three runners and all have the potential to win.

Selection: As you know from yesterday I don’t like to bet in these races at odds-on and so that removes Sizing Europe as a potential bet for me, but combine this with a certain trends statistic, available to our members, at this makes an even stronger reason to remove him at these odds. The choice would be between Finian’s Rainbow and Big Zeb and I would most likely be tempted to bet both each-way or at 20/80. However if I was to choose one then it would be Big Zeb in the hope that he can continue to improve at the rate he has been and would go for an each-way on him.

Let me know who you think will win this race by leaving a comment below.

You can get access to the Race Advisor here or every trend for the 64 big races held in the UK each year here.

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. You can also check out my personal blog or my personal Instagram account.


    1. I think that the odds are far too low now to represent any real value and while an excellent runner, the other two also have excellent potential which makes them, in my opinion, far better bets. The reasoning can be seen above.

  1. Good afternoon Michael,

    I have put the relevant data into my software called Bookie Buster and Here are the ratings for this 8 runner race.

    Sizing Europe Rating 84, Fininians Rainbow 80, Big Zeb Rating 79, Realt Dubh Rating 73,

    I’m So Lucky 62, Gauvain Rating 55, Kauto Stone Rating 55, Wishful Thinking Rating 50.

    Based no these ratings I feel Sizing Europe has very strong claims to Win this race with the 2nd and 3rd rated being placed. Sizing Europe has won 4 hurdle races a NH flat race and 9 chases from 2m to 2m 4 fur on ground varying from Good to Heavy.

    1. I agree he certainly does have strong claims in the race but for me they are not strong enough to warrant the odds. I shall look forward to seeing how your ratings perform 🙂

  2. ..interesting your showing Big Zeb’s speed ratings as improving…simply from perspective he’s now 11. Can’t see past the favourite myself in this one, I’m like you re odds on shots but given I don’t believe he’ll lose backing the other two 20/80 wouldn’t give me much better odds the place so favourite for me but agreed Rock On Ruby was value bet yesterday :)…can’t agree all the time 😉

    1. I thought there would be a difference of opinion on this one 😉 I am looking forward to watching the race to see how it pans out

  3. I have Sizing in anti post with odds of 9.2 (5.5) so hoping
    he will come good.

    Also backed Big Zeb in place market.

    1. That is great odds. If only I could still get the ante-post bets, I hope he comes good for you.

  4. I think this is a good analysis although I think Kauto will surprise everyone this time and then bow out gracefully….this is my prediction…

  5. Big Zeb didn’t manage to continue his improvement at the same pace and couldn’t keep up with the two leaders but gave a small return on the each-way. Our other favourite selection Finian’s Rainbow just stole the lead on Sizing Europe and if you had bet both of the selections either each-way or 20/80 you will have made a nice profit on the race 🙂

  6. BZ gave me something to smile about.

    Can’t believe the cock-up over the final fence.

    Over all did my doe.

    Never mind. On to the next.

  7. 20/80 Fininans Rainbow, place bet on Big zeb. and Sizing Europe.
    Kauto did suprise very early I was shocked.

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