Family commitments have restricted me in putting together an in depth stats and trends overview for Royal Ascot. But you won’t have missed anything because with a little bit of searching the main racing sites that produce micro sites for the festivals will have most of the information.
One has to be careful when publishing stats and trends etc as these sites are quick to scream plagiarism, but with the internet as it is now, this information is easily available. But what I have for you here won’t be found in any of the Racing post, Sportinglife, Racing Uk or ATR websites.
Royal Ascot is no different to any other big racing festival that frequent the calendar throughout the year. Every festival has a repetitive theme …
BIG RACES + HUGE PRIZE MONEY + OVER HYPE STABLE/MEDIA = FREQUENT FAILINGS AT SHORT PRICES.
Since 2006 there has been just 90 winners from 318 runners that were sent off in the betting at 4/1 or less. That’s just 28.3% and falls below market expectation. Clear figures that these horses are over bet by the public and as a result offer no value, especially at starting price.
However, it’s not all doom and gloom. Looking at those horses under different sets that head the market it’s easy to see where the disparity lies.
Since 2006 to 2014 the table below shows the stats for the Clear/joint/co favourites –
What jumps out is the big disparity between favourites in non-handicaps versus handicaps and I have been using a simple micro system that has improved both the profit and win percentage of the jollies in these non-handicap races for a number of years now. This simple system has had good success having been profitable in seven of the last nine Royal festivals including a profit in each of the last five meetings.
Here are the rules of this system –
Horse aged three, four and five.
Favs inc Jt/Co priced @ 5/1 or less.
Race Distance: 1m – 2m5.5f
Last raced 75 or less days on turf (flat race).
Here are the results –
I will be back later this month or early July with another angle (or two) to go to battle with, so until then enjoy the great racing from Ascot.