Profiting From The Shorties
Family commitments have restricted me in putting together an in depth stats and trends overview for Royal Ascot. But you won’t have missed anything because with a little bit of searching the main racing sites that produce micro sites for the festivals will have most of the information.
One has to be careful when publishing stats and trends etc as these sites are quick to scream plagiarism, but with the internet as it is now, this information is easily available. But what I have for you here won’t be found in any of the Racing post, Sportinglife, Racing Uk or ATR websites.
Royal Ascot is no different to any other big racing festival that frequent the calendar throughout the year. Every festival has a repetitive theme …
BIG RACES + HUGE PRIZE MONEY + OVER HYPE STABLE/MEDIA = FREQUENT FAILINGS AT SHORT PRICES.
Since 2006 there has been just 90 winners from 318 runners that were sent off in the betting at 4/1 or less. That’s just 28.3% and falls below market expectation. Clear figures that these horses are over bet by the public and as a result offer no value, especially at starting price.
However, it’s not all doom and gloom. Looking at those horses under different sets that head the market it’s easy to see where the disparity lies.
Since 2006 to 2014 the table below shows the stats for the Clear/joint/co favourites –
What jumps out is the big disparity between favourites in non-handicaps versus handicaps and I have been using a simple micro system that has improved both the profit and win percentage of the jollies in these non-handicap races for a number of years now. This simple system has had good success having been profitable in seven of the last nine Royal festivals including a profit in each of the last five meetings.
Here are the rules of this system –
Non Handicap.
Horse aged three, four and five.
Favs inc Jt/Co priced @ 5/1 or less.
Race Distance: 1m – 2m5.5f
Last raced 75 or less days on turf (flat race).
Here are the results –
I will be back later this month or early July with another angle (or two) to go to battle with, so until then enjoy the great racing from Ascot.
Hi Michael
Would it be possible for you show the way you can use the Racing Post’s racing predictor to a better advantage please.It was shown a few months ago.
Brian
Hi Brian, you can find the article about it at http://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/how-to-use-the-racing-post-race-predictor/
HORSE NAME
RACING POST RATING
TOPSPEED RATING
AVERAGE RATING(CALULATED)
RATINGS RANK ORDER
DAYS SINCE LAST RACE
FITNESS POINTS (CALCULATED)
ENTER TOTAL OF WINS AND PLACES ON THIS GOING
ENTER TOTAL RACES ON THE GOING
GOING FACTOR (CALCULATED)
ENTER TOTAL OF WINS AND PLACES AT THE COURSE
ENTER TOTAL OF RACES AT THE COURSE
COURSE FACTOR (CALCULATED)
ENTER PRIZE MONEY WON
ENTER TOTAL OF ALL RACES
CLASS FACTOR (CALCULATED)
CLASS RANK ORDER
ENTER PLACE 3RD MOST RECENT RACE
ENTER PLACE 2ND MOST RECENT RACE
ENTER PLACE IN MOST RECENT RACE
PLACINGS FACTOR (CALCULATED)
PLACINGS RANK ORDER
THIS IS ONE WAY OF WORKING OUT RATING WITH THE RACEINGPOST
Hi Stephen,
Having just read your post I’m left wondering what is it all about. Are all of the factors entered into a spreadsheet and if so where can I get same?
Kind regards
Ramsey
ya its entered into a spreadsheet you cant get it now its call Dynamic race Analyzer i have had it for a few years now.but only works for 14 days.but i have have be doing for over a week now and it still say ing will expire in 13 days.
i have only be doing
RACING POST RATING
TOPSPEED RATING
DAYS SINCE LAST RACE
ENTER PLACE 3RD MOST RECENT RACE
ENTER PLACE 2ND MOST RECENT RACE
ENTER PLACE IN MOST RECENT RACE
but i onlying be takering the top 6 on one of my software sys.
MARKET 2:10 Tennessee Bird
Redcar 3:30 Hussar Ballad
Market 3:55 Ruaraidh Hugh
Redcar 5:55 Atreus
just my luck will not get a winner now lol
i do win and place
stephen
Sorry only just read this post 🙂
Thanks for the post Stephen. How do you use that information once you’ve got it?