Advice

Newmarket (July) 2012 – Day 1 Winners

Okay, so the title of this article may be pretty optimistic, but I hope to get some of the winners throughout the day. The weather has not made things any easier and the going conditions at the time of writing this post are good to soft and soft. I will be writing this from the assumption that these conditions are going to stay on the softer side.

I am also going to be trying something new. Bet365 have an offer where, if you place a winning bet on a horse of 4/1 or higher in a race being televised on Channel 4, then they will give you a free bet to the same level in the next race being televised on Channel 4. This can work really well to our advantage and I am going to see if we can hit some of these today.

You must remember that when you place your bet, your first bet must be on a horse at 4/1 or more as it is only the first bet in a race that counts. I say this because I will be betting more than one horse in each race, make sure that your first bet is on one that is at odds of 4/1 or more.

The races being televised by Channel 4 today are Newmarket’s first four races, so it is these that we will be targeting for these bets. If you want to find out more about this bet then visit Bet365 here.

Please also bear in mind that it is highly likely there will be non-runners between now and the race off. Right on to the races!

1:20 Bahrain Trophy (Group 3) 1m 5f

Just 6 runners currently in the first race over 1 mile 5 furlongs. As you would expect it is going to be a hotly contested race.

I am going to start by looking at performances over a similar distance, race type and going. I shall be using the same process for each of the days races.

Valiant’s performance on the 15th June at York showed there is a lot of promise here over the ground conditions. The distance is a bit longer but shouldn’t be too much of an issue.

Shantaram has also performed well last month over similar conditions but the distance was just 1 furlong shorter than todays. This proves that he can keep the distance over soft ground.

Rewarded can also not be ignored showing good improvement over similar conditions and looking strong.

If there were more runners and the ground stays soft then Good Morning Star I think could have be a surprise place. Even so I would expect the run to be better than the current odds are suggesting and could make a good outside bet.

I think that this race is going to be between Valiant and Rewarded, neither of which are likely to fall into our 4/1 or above category for Bet365. While it is a close decision I think I may be edging towards Valiant in the final choice having shown improvement and the ability to win and compete with these class of horses over similar conditions.

1:50 TNT July Stakes (Group 2) 6f

If we look at the top three runners average speed figures over similar conditions in this race, we have Ahern, Gale Force Ten and Lewisham. Of these Ahern has shown a recent decline, it is not so bad that he couldn’t come back from it but something to be wary of. Gale Force Ten on the other hand has been showing some good improvement over similar conditions.

Sir Prancealot has a good strike rate but seems massively underpriced (currently odds of 2/1) to me.

None of the other runners seem to be likely to be able to make all in this race without a significant improvement and Gale Force Ten would be the selection for me. Depending on how his odds move he may or may not be eligible for the 4/1 bet. So, I would also be looking at an each-way bet on either Ahern or Lewisham. Lewisham has yet to win a race but I think is hugely overpriced. However Ahern, if he does not decline further, could certainly put in a good run.

If I could not get Gale Force Ten in the 4/1 offer then I would place my first bet with half a point on Ahern as an each-way and then my second bet on Gale Force Ten to win. If Ahern wins then you get your profits plus the free bet. If Gale Force Ten wins you will make a profit and there is a strong chance Ahern will place increasing it.

2:25 Goldsmiths Handicap 1m 2f

This race is the first with a bigger field. I am going to use the same process as before to narrow it down.

A lot of these runners have run under similar conditions before and it is going to be very difficult to reduce the selections.

Fennel Bay looks like an excellent possibility having run a strong race and finishing 1st on the 16th June. This was after having been consistently improving over race conditions similar to todays.

Silver Blaze has also seen improvement although it has been less marked than Fennel Bay’s. However the confidence in his figures are stronger.

Samba King has also been showing consistent improvement over similar conditions, although the volatility of his performance is of concern.

There are no horses in this race that we can comfortably say don’t have a chance at taking the prize home. This makes it a race to be very wary of.

I would not be comfortable backing a single runner in this race and the three strongest for me are Fennel Bay, Silver Blaze and Pilgrims Rest. However this is only by a small margin. I would be dutch betting on these runners and placing the first bet on Fennel Bay for the 4/1 Bet365 special offer.

3:00 Princess Of Wales’s Goldsmiths Stakes (Group 2) 1m 4f

This could be a very interesting race because very few of the horses have any experience over soft ground conditions. It could also make it a very open ended race with anybody coming in for the win.

If this race was to be run on good ground then Harris Tweed and Red Cadeaux would, without a doubt be the first runners to pick up on. I would probably be more keen on Harris Tweed who has been improving, over Red Cadeaux who has been declining, but it would be a tough call.

However, this race is not going to be run on Good ground (unless something dramatic happens between now and tomorrow).

That changes the structure of the race. Red Cadeaux still looks to be the potential here with his run on the 10th September at Curragh giving him an excellent speed figure over soft ground and 1 mile 6 furlongs.

Then Dandino, Harris Tweed and Quest For Peace all come as the next possibilities. Of these Red Cadeaux and Harris Tweed have the strongest form strength with Dandino not far behind.

I think that this race could throw up a few surprises but my money will have to be on Red Cadeaux. As this runner is unlikely to be at odds of 4/1 or higher I would be looking to place my first bet at half a point each-way on Dandino who has at least proven he can run over the ground, followed by a win bet on Red Cadeaux.

3:35 Three Chimneys E.B.F. Maiden Fillies’ Stakes 6f

A maiden race that could, quite literally, be anybodys! I would never, under normal circumstances, be betting in a race like this.

As you would expect in a maiden race, we only have data for a handful of the runners. This means that the market will have to play a very strong part in the decision process. If any of the runners we discuss here are way out in the odds, then I wouldn’t be considering placing a bet on them.

Of those that we do have some data on, Fleeting Smile and Royal Steps have both run very well over soft ground before producing decent first time figures. Fleeting Smile takes the edge with better figures and finish position over exactly the same 6 furlongs as today.

Hasanan has also raced over soft ground and cannot be ignored, but didn’t perform very well last time at Newmarket. There is however potential here for a good race to be run.

Pearl Sea has run to an excellent figure, but on good ground and it is unsure whether she can keep this performance up on the soft.

I would be looking at Royal Steps and Hasanan as possible bets with Royal Steps taking the edge. However I strongly advise letting the market guide in this race as well, and if it goes against these two runners (or possibly Fleeting Smile), then I would stay away.

4:05 Portland Place Properties Conditions Stakes 1m

Quite a lot of the runners in this race have run over similar conditions before. Unfortunately the variance in the figures of a lot of the runners is pretty high. Which means, it is yet another tough race to make decisions on. We can safely assume that the racing at Newmarket, with the weather being as it is, is going to be tough. However that is no reason to not be able to make a profit, as we did at Ascot.

First of all I am going to remove Gabriel, whose figures are volatile and is showing decline over these conditions, Red Duke and Crius from contention. If there is a sound reason to bring any of these runners back into consideration later, then I shall do so but initially there is nothing in their figures that makes me want to stay with them.

Of those left, Mukhadram and Eastern Sun both look like strong possibilities and while not improving have been consistent in their racing recently over these conditions. Sovereign Debt has shown a slight decline but it is small.

Mister Music has shown good improvement recently over soft ground that is edging towards good but has shown he cannot run on heavy. If the ground dries out a bit then there is potential but if it gets wetter then I would remove him as a possible.

Eastern Sun and Sovereign Debt are the only two to have proven they can perform on soft going. At current odds of 21, Eastern Sun seems to be well over-priced and I would possibly be looking at a dutch win between these two with a place bet on Eastern Sun.

4:40 Egerton House Stables Handicap 5f

The last race of the day is a sprint with a lot of runners in it. 20 declared to be precise. Without taking anything else into consideration, the best average speed comes from Dancing Freddy and Kingsgate Choice. However both seem to be in decline currently. If we put on some filters then Kingsgate Choice still has the best average but the decline is even stronger.

This is a race of many possibilites and I am going to be looking for a horse that is improving, shown good speed over similar conditions, but specifically over 5 furlongs on the ground. I want to make sure that my selection has the ability to get the speed necessary over such a short distance.

The two that stand out to me as not showing a decline, having proved they have the speed necessary to challenge over soft ground conditions in 5 furlongs are Pearl Blue and Dancing Freddy.

Dancing Freddy hasn’t raced in these conditions since the 16th August 2011. Whereas Pearl Blue ran in Heavy ground to win, and achieving a strong speed rating on the 27th April 2012.

For this reason Pearl Blue would be my preference and each-way bet.

Please leave a comment below to let me know who you are going to be betting on today!

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. You can also check out my personal blog or my personal Instagram account.

17 Comments

  1. Hi,

    I will be back rewarded in the first race as I like this type of progressive filly. ON top of that I think Kirsty Milczarek will be really trying on this one.

    Cheers

  2. In the second race 1.50 I am going for smoothtalkinrascal with Shane Kelly in the saddle. Good record on the good to soft ground hopefully will hold the stamina against strong opposition and my guess is he will win by a neck……….hopefully!!!!!!

    1. I think this race is going to be exciting but one of the hardest from a punting perspective. Good luck with Showboating.

  3. I assume that we need 2 consecutive races- that is the 4/1 race and the very next race on ch4 – not your next bet? If your 4/1 bet is the last race of the ch4 day can this be carried to the Ist race of the next C4 broadcast or are all bets on the same day?

    1. If you win your first bet on a televised race at 4/1 or higher, then your next bet on a televised race is free (to the same stake). If this bet loses then you will get your stake refunded within an hour. If it wins then you get a free bet on the next televised race, etc… If it is the last race of the day then your free bet rolls over to your next bet on a televised race.

      As a side note, It is always a good idea to check the terms and conditions of any promotional offers by bookies to make sure you are familiar with them.

  4. Certify 3.45 looks a nice e.w opportunity. M Alzarooni 6 – 7f June – August Fillies only is 8 wins from 17 runs at newmarket 47% SR and 64.5Pts LSP. also Mikael Barzalona has almost 20%
    Win Strike rate at course

  5. Good afternoon Michael,

    Thank you for asking me to place a comment on your website. I have just had some new software from a friend who has kindly made it more glamorous than I did have it.

    Here are the ratings for two of the races set out below:

    Nmkt 1.20 p.m.

    Rewarded Rating 50 Value price 5/1, Shantram Rating 56 Value price 3/1, Valiant Rating 60 Value price 3/1, Yazdi Rating 46 Value price 10/1, Good morning Star Rating 30 Value price 50/1,Naseem Alyasmean Rating 50 Value price 25/1.

    The Top rated horse is Valiant who has not done much wrong Winning last two races from the two outings that it has had. the last outing was in a Handicap Class 2 over 1m 2 furlongs. So this horse is up in distance and most certainly is up in class. The next Best horse Rating 56 is Shantaram. Last race Won over 1m 4 furlongs in a class 5 maiden so this horse is certainly going up in class as well. The Third Best is Rewarded Rating 50 who last ran in a Group 3 over 1m 2 furlongs and finished 3rd of 10 beaten 5 lenghts so this horse is going up in distance by 3 furlongs. The other horse is Naseem Alyasmeen Rating 50 Jt Rated Won last time out over 1m 4 furlongs hhandicap Class 4 so this horse is going up in class and distance. All in all I do not feel that any are worth backing because all are going up in distance and majority of them are going up in class and in addition the going can make mince meat of this race with a Big Surprise. My verdict NO BET. Thank you.

    1. Shantram did well, very disappointing run from Valiant. Usually all todays races would be a no bet from me because of conditions.Hopefully we can get a few winners though.

  6. Good afternoon Michael,

    In this race again I feel that it may not be worth making a bet unless you are more than happy to LOSE YOUR MONEY.

    Here are my Ratings set out below:

    Ahern Rating 44 Value price 7/2, Alhabayeb Rating 56 Top Rated finished 2nd last time out in a 5 furlong listed race beaten 1/2 a lenght.This horse is going up in distance and Class that is for sure.Gale Force Ten Rating 54 Value price is 11/4 Next Best finished 2nd last time out beaten 3/4 lenght over 5 furlongs in a Group 2 on Good to soft. Has Won over the distance of 6 furlongs in Ireland a 9k race and is Trained by A P O’Brien who has been collecting all the big prizes. The next horse Chilworth Icon Rating 50 Value price is 14/1 Won last Race in Milan over 6 furlongs in Group 3 so will be going up in class and the other Joint Third rated horse is Lewisham who has had only 2 outings. Finished 3rd last time out 3rd of 15 beaten 1 3/4 lenths over 6 furlongs in a madien Auct Class 5 on good to soft. This was only the 2nd run. My verdict is NO BET. Thank you.

  7. Good afternoon Michael,

    Here is the Outcome with Ratings for the Portland Stakes 4.05 p.m. as set out bellow:

    Crius Rating 38 Value price 14/1, Saigon Rating 34 Value price 10/1, Eastern Sun Rating 36 Value price 16/1, Mister Music Rating 44 Value price 8/1, Mukhadram Rating 52 Value price 7/2, Sovereign Duke Rating 48 Value price 5/2.

    Based on these the Top rated is Mukhadram, Next Best is Sovereign Debt and the Third Best is Mister Music. I would leave you to choose. My verdict is Mukhadram although I would advise caution as it has not Won over the distance. Thank you.

    1. Interesting choice Franklyn, he definitely looks strong although I am not sure if he will get the edge or not.

  8. Hi Michael, sorry i am late but do agree with you on Red Cadeaux in the 3.00, a saver would after be Harris Tweed.

    Barry

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