All of us want to pick winners in the best races. There’s no greater feeling than having your pick in the Grand National come storming and taking the race.
It’s an awesome feeling.
But the truth is these races are horse racing at it’s hardest!
Think about it. The best trainers in the world want their horses to run in the best races in the world. There’s a lot of prestige, and prize money, up for grabs.
That means that they’re horses are prepared specifically to run in these events.
Events which are made up of… the best horses in the world.
And of course, if the best horses are running then there’s going to be loads which have the potential to win.
How do you choose from a field of horses where the majority of runners are excellent and have a strong chance?
You begin to focus on the smaller details.
If the conditions happen to become more extreme, that can work very well. Different horses have different preferences in extreme conditions.
But if the conditions are pretty standard most of the horses will still have a strong chance of contending.
On the other hand the poor quality races usually have… poor quality runners.
And that’s a good thing!
I know that sounds counter-intuitive, but here’s my reasoning…
Whereas high quality runners are very similar and we’re looking for small differences between them to make our selections.
Poor quality runners have a larger disparity between each other. The difference between the quality in runners is far bigger than in higher quality races.
Which means… it’s much easier to spot the runners that are likely to perform strongly.
So try focusing on the lower quality races, the ones that are filled with horses that have experience but just aren’t very good.
The other benefit of focusing on these races is that… most punters don’t want to!
By definition gamblers like the thrill of the win, and there is much more thrill and prestige of winning a bet in a big race than winning a bet on a small evening race at Kempton.
But for us… bettors who are looking to make a positive ROI… we want to head to the races where we can generate the most profit.
Here is a classic example of a low quality race you may want to check out:
You can see this is a Class 5 race with just £5000 guaranteed prize money. Just by glancing at the information on this race card we can see that Mister Rockandroll is the favourite and has the highest TopSpeed and RPR as well as being one of the lowest weighted.
Looking at his racing history we can see that his only win was over a similar distance. All of his good races have also been over a similar distance and ground condition. His last race was at a slightly higher class but he also carried four pounds less in weight.
Without looking at the other runners we already have an idea of why this horse is probably favourite. A little bit more investigation would highlight that the runner was badly hampered in the last race and indicates it should have won it.
Go and pick one of the strategies we’ve provided at the Race Advisor and then start testing it on lower quality racing. You’re going to be pleased you did.