Look For The Worst And Make More Profit

All of us want to pick winners in the best races. There’s no greater feeling than having your pick in the Grand National come storming and taking the race.

It’s an awesome feeling.

But the truth is these races are horse racing at it’s hardest!

Think about it. The best trainers in the world want their horses to run in the best races in the world. There’s a lot of prestige, and prize money, up for grabs.

That means that they’re horses are prepared specifically to run in these events.

Events which are made up of… the best horses in the world.

And of course, if the best horses are running then there’s going to be loads which have the potential to win.

How do you choose from a field of horses where the majority of runners are excellent and have a strong chance?

You begin to focus on the smaller details.

If the conditions happen to become more extreme, that can work very well. Different horses have different preferences in extreme conditions.

But if the conditions are pretty standard most of the horses will still have a strong chance of contending.

On the other hand the poor quality races usually have… poor quality runners.

And that’s a good thing!

I know that sounds counter-intuitive, but here’s my reasoning…

Whereas high quality runners are very similar and we’re looking for small differences between them to make our selections.

Poor quality runners have a larger disparity between each other. The difference between the quality in runners is far bigger than in higher quality races.

Which means… it’s much easier to spot the runners that are likely to perform strongly.

So try focusing on the lower quality races, the ones that are filled with horses that have experience but just aren’t very good.

The other benefit of focusing on these races is that… most punters don’t want to!

By definition gamblers like the thrill of the win, and there is much more thrill and prestige of winning a bet in a big race than winning a bet on a small evening race at Kempton.

But for us… bettors who are looking to make a positive ROI… we want to head to the races where we can generate the most profit.

Here is a classic example of a low quality race you may want to check out:

Screen Shot 2015-08-02 at 15.28.00

You can see this is a Class 5 race with just £5000 guaranteed prize money. Just by glancing at the information on this race card we can see that Mister Rockandroll is the favourite and has the highest TopSpeed and RPR as well as being one of the lowest weighted.

Screen Shot 2015-08-02 at 15.29.21

Looking at his racing history we can see that his only win was over a similar distance. All of his good races have also been over a similar distance and ground condition. His last race was at a slightly higher class but he also carried four pounds less in weight.

Without looking at the other runners we already have an idea of why this horse is probably favourite. A little bit more investigation would highlight that the runner was badly hampered in the last race and indicates it should have won it.
Go and pick one of the strategies we’ve provided at the Race Advisor and then start testing it on lower quality racing. You’re going to be pleased you did.

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. You can also check out my personal blog or my personal Instagram account.


    1. Thanks for the comment Ronnie. This approach won’t find you the winner every single time any more than any other approach will. I could have found an example where the selection came first but I like to write my posts before a race goes off to show you the approach honestly rather than fixing it too look like it will win every bet. Looking at the results this horse was in with every chance but couldn’t quite make it in the final. The top three were within 1.5 lengths of each other and then there was a gap of 3.75 lengths to the next which shows that although the selection didn’t win it was a strong contender in the race.

    1. Hi Ted, thank you for the message. We’ve had some issues with our proofers being seriously ill recently so have been behind on our proofing for sometime. It has actually just run for today and there is now a guest tip there for today and it should be back to normal going forwards. If you can’t see todays guest tip then please delete your browsers cache and refresh or go directly using the link

  1. Hi

    Unfortunately not impressed. It came in third. Did my own assessment of the race and I chose King Oftthe Celts which won.

    You are correct in the theme of your article. Better value winners in lower class races.

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