It’s very easy to over-complicate things in horse racing. In fact I could be accused of doing this myself. I often teach advanced methods and these can be complex, but you don’t need to have complex methods to make a profit. It’s harder to find profits using simpler methods but then the method is easier to use. It’s easier to find profits with complex methods but then the method can require some time to understand and put into practice.
Today I want to focus on using simple techniques to find winners and I’m going to outline one for you.
The reason that it’s harder to find profit with a simpler method is that it’s usually in use by a lot more people and/or it uses information that is used by a lot of punters. In order to make profits we need to have an edge, something different to the public. Just finding winners is not enough to make profits. While this may sound like an unusual statement to make, a clear example is betting on every favourite. It’s well published that if you do this you will make a loss, but this loss is not due to a lack of winners. In fact betting on all the favourites will give you more winners than almost any other single horse backing method.
What this tells us is that we need to focus on where we are going to find an edge, and we do this by using the knowledge we already have. Using a simple method we already know two things…
- A lot of people are likely to be using a similar method
- A lot of people are likely to be using the same data or ratings
So how do we go about finding our edge if everyone is doing something similar?
We do this by focusing on the one thing that most punters won’t be doing. The one thing that most punters can’t be bothered to do because it takes them too long or doesn’t give them enough selections. The one thing that can give us an edge.
We specialise!
The quickest way to find an edge with a simple method is to specialise. Look into very specific types of racing with very specific conditions. It is in these small niches that you’re going to spot angles that the majority of the betting public are missing because they’re too lazy to bother investigating that far. As a reader of the Race Advisor I know that you will be bothered, because you want to make profits.
Are you interested in using the Racing Post ratings but never been able to make a profit from them?
Well how do they fare in very specific conditions. If we look at handicap chase races over 2m4f and longer that are run on good ground only, at least one month into the season and one month before it ends then how do the Racing Post top-rated fare?
How do the top rated fare if they are at least 10 points clear of the next top-rated?
What about if we check to see which horses are improving or declining in these races and what the average ratings are?
These three questions have already shown you an area in which you will almost certainly be able to find a profit. Why haven’t I just told you where the selections are? Because we are lucky enough to have a lot of readers and if everyone started using it then it would lose its edge. Simple methods lose their edge quickly because the edge is usually small.
But I know that at least a few of you reading this will spend the time to investigate this further and ask your own questions. If you’re one of them then you’ll be the one who makes a profit from your betting because you are prepared to spend the time to find your edge and do something different to everyone else.
Let me know how you get on by leaving a comment below.
shouldn’t that be 2m4f ?
Sorry typo, thanks for pointing it out Ashley it’s been changed now.
Hi Michael, and thanks again for all your diligent work, and effort in getting the Race Advisor to us. With life as busy and hectic as it is in the 21st century, sometimes the basic things still hold true, where the ‘simple’ things in life are still the ‘best’. Even though I know you are right, I still need a reminder of that, from time to time. It is about changing the mind-set, which can be ‘cotton-pickin’ hard to do!! Thanks again for planting the seed……..
Hi Michael, as a relative newcomer to the more detailed side of betting (ie. putting some work into it rather than randomly throwing money at the bookies!) I see all these statistics and wonder where to find them? I have strong mathematical skills as an Engineer but lack the raw data to play with and identify trends.
Hi Martin, thanks for the comment. You can get data in a variety of different ways. You can use software such as Proform and Horseracebase but they are more designed with system builders in place rather than the raw data. For raw data you would be best looking at Betwise who provide the raw data in a mysql database and you can play with it as you want.
Of course if you want ratings then you should check out our own software at http://www.racingdossier.co.uk
Hi Michael’
I must admit that simple works for me. Until about 3 years ago nearly all my systems were ratings based until I realised it was taking up nearly all my spare time to prepare my selections for the next day. This had to change.All my selections must be capable of acting on the days going and remembering something my grandfather, in the sixties, told me about racing i tried that one statistic out and eureka I had cracked it.
Assuming the horse can act on the going i use just one stat and must be doing something right as since i started this method on FEB 16th 2011 uptil the end of 2012 it has averaged 4points profit per day.
So I must agree simple is best. I use 4 variants of the method and the whole lot takes me only 30min to an hour each day, depending on the number of selections.
Keep up the good work Michael. You are one of only about 4 or 5 Good Guys in this sometimes murky world of betting that I take notice of.
Cheers
Stuart
Thanks Stuart. That is brilliant news and if you can make 4 points profit per day from one system then you are doing excellently, congratulations 🙂