Is This The Most Dangerous Staking In The World?

Guest post written by Paul Micelli

Although the overwhelming majority of sports betting enthusiasts prefer to make their selections based on traditional indicators such as recent playing form or the head-to-head records of two rival sides, there are a number of punters who prefer to implement betting systems in an effort to give them an edge over the bookmakers. Although there is no doubt whatsoever that an effective system has a rightful place in the world of gambling, there are still a large number of betting methods that are largely ineffective.

One of the most commonly-known betting plans is the Martingale systems. This particular form of structured gambling is many years old and in theory, there is absolutely no reason why it shouldn’t work. Unfortunately, the Martingale system carries a series of flaws that have left many punters in financial ruin. The importance of exposing fundamentally weak betting systems is vital to maintaining a healthy betting bankroll and enjoying profits on a more consistent basis.

How the Martingale System Works

The Martingale system works by betting on even-money chances in any sporting event although horse racing tends to be the most popular choice for disciples of this particular method as meetings are held on a daily basis so there are more betting opportunities are in place.

Online gamblers also use Roulette as a means of testing the Martingale system (and some unscrupulous mail order companies even market it as a ‘new and unbeatable’ system!).

A primary profit target is set for each day. For our example, we are going to set a profit target of £5 each day and use horse racing as our sport of choice. To make our profit, we simply select an even-selection from a suitable horse race and place an equivalent stake of £5 on it.

If our horse wins we have our profit and can move our betting interests to the next day where we will seek to profit again.

If our horse loses, we simply double our stake to £10 on the next even-money selection to win back our losses AND make our £5 profit.

A second loss and we bet £20 on our next even-money horse etc… The Martingale system simply requires us to double our stakes until such a stage that all losses are recouped and a £5 profit is made.

Why the System is Flawed

Although this method appears foolproof, there is one fundamental error associated with the Martingale system. With an unlimited bankroll, it is inevitable that money can be won in theory although it would be impossible to find a bookmaker prepared to accept your bets. However very few sports bettors enjoy the luxury of an unlimited bankroll!

The flaw in this method comes because it is not particularly unusual for punters to go several races without a win and unfortunately, the Martingale system doesn’t have the capability to withstand a long losing run. If a sports betting enthusiast has a losing run of seven races, which isn’t exactly a rare occurrence, their next bet will involve a stake of £640 just to win £5. If a poor run reaches seventeen races (which is easily possible), then the stake for the next event would be an astonishing £655,360. Even though profits for a winning race would only be £5, the total payout for additional accrued losses would be beyond the maximum allowed by many UK bookmakers – if they’d actually take a wager of that size in the first instance!

***Note from the editor***

This is a very dangerous method of staking and will result in you losing your bankroll. Please heed the advice in this article and never use it. If you are ever told to use it from a bought system then don’t touch the system either as it is most likely a losing system that tries to recover its losses using this staking.

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. You can also check out my personal blog or my personal Instagram account.


  1. Oh boy, this needs to be avoided at all costs. Though most experienced bettors know the risks well done for bringing it up for those who maybe aren’t so aware of the dangers.

    Chris O

  2. Why don’t you tell us something new& give some picks if you’re that smart.But if you’re not good at picking winners than it’s best to keep quiet.

  3. So basicaslly you are saying that matt Watson’s FP system and systems like it are fundamentally flawed, even though they are designed using actual race statistics.

    Hm, they may be but for me the jury is out.
    You can’t compare Horse Racing with Roulette, because it is irational human beings who determine the odds through their betting, rather than the odds being pre-determined by design.

    That said, un-limited Martingale is dangerous, but I feel it can have a place in Racing systems which are based upon Racing stats and which cut losses after a sequence of losses.

    Just my opinion,

  4. Your information is not totally accurate, I have been using the martingale system
    for many years with success. The key factor is to find a tipster that can deliver winners at an 80/90 percent strike rate. Yes I know it is rare but the key factor here is it does exist . Connect with me
    and I will show you where to find them William

    1. Hi William,

      We are always happy to proof tipsters, if you know of any then please let us know and we will get in touch with them.

  5. This year’s baseball system from one of the tipsters I work with take a look at the results:
    This year, this is the full record:

    4-6-13 – Los Angeles Dodgers (Kershaw) – Win
    4-7-13 – Texas Rangers (Darvish) – Win
    4-7-13 – Washington Nationals (Strasburg) – Lose
    4-12-13 – Texas Rangers (Darvish) – Lose
    4-13-13 – Detroit Tigers (Verlander) – Win
    4-17-13 – New York Yankees (Sabathia) – Win
    4-17-13 – Los Angeles Dodgers (Kershaw) – Lose
    4-18-13 – Detroit Tigers (Verlander) – Lose
    4-19-13 – Texas Rangers (Darvish) – Win
    4-19-13 – Washington Nationals (Strasburg) – Lose
    4-23-13 – Los Angeles Dodgers (Kershaw) – Win
    4-24-13 – Texas Rangers (Darvish) – Win
    4-25-13 – Detroit Tigers (Verlander) – Lose
    4-28-13 – Tampa Bay Rays (Price) – Win
    4-28-13 – Los Angeles Dodgers (Kershaw) – Win
    4-30-13 – Texas Rangers (Darvish) – Win
    4-30-13 – Detroit Tigers (Verlander) – Win
    5-3-13 – New York Yankees (Sabathia) – Win
    5-3-13 – Texas Rangers (Darvish) – Win
    5-4-13 – Tampa Bay Rays (Price)- Lose
    5-5-13 – Detroit Tigers (Verlander) – Win
    5-29-13 – St. Louis Cardinals – Win
    5-31-13 – Washinton Nationals – Win
    6-1-13 – Detroit Tigers – Win
    6-2-13 – Texas Rangers – Win
    6-3-13 – St. Louis Cardinals – Win

  6. The one staking system I heard of is L’ Aboucher (sorry if it spelt wrongly) basically you start with a set sequence of 1 point as example and how many points you want to use 1 1 1 1 1 for example and then you add the two end numbers together 1+1 = 2 so your first stake is 2 points if the horse loses then add the two to the end and then add one more point making your next points 3 and so on

    Some years ago there was an infamous thread about a staking system called Kelly or some such where a woman took 3 grand and in 303 days turned it into over 300 grand, I have never found how this was done, anyone know?/

  7. That is indeed a staking plan Graeme, it’s spelt Labouchere 🙂

    The Kelly staking is very powerful if used correctly but has some flaws in it that you need to be aware of. This is the staking plan used by the majority of major betting syndicates. I have written a number of articles on it and if you use the search box on the blog then you will be able to find them.

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