The Racing Horse is indifferent to the plethora of supposed new betting advice systems and strategies that come on to the market. A few deserve scrutiny but the vast majority are either bogus or not fit for purpose. Some authors/sources deliberately procure false hope, others albeit unintentionally, enlist less important or flawed features and give wrong credence to certain aspects. More recently we have seen those that create systems and strategies that seek to complicate in order to raise their own profiles and then of course, we have a few that make a profit.
The Race Advisor sifts this pool of information so we don’t have to!
Essential prerequisites carrying argument weighting are what we require before wagering. This common sense rationale has stood the test of time and make up the ‘Four Corners’ of our betting slip. This raison d’être was vital in 1950, essential now and will be relevant in 2050. With the help of Race Advisor we would like to herald and trumpet this lost message and reaffirm those quadri-points in order of importance!
Optimum Ground Conditions
The single most important element to any winning bet is ‘Trainer Form.’ The sum of the other parts is not as important. If there is a cornerstone to win betting this is it!
Acknowledging trainer statistics and the mathematics that accompany them before making a win single bet is vital. It is a decisively indicative test that removes randomness, opinion and bias, it reveals how well the stable’s horses are currently and delivers an up to the minute litmus test. If backing the horses of trainers on the cold list is madness then it must be sensible to back trainers who have recorded winners?
Most of us know that there any amount of random factors that can affect a result and it takes small margins to win most races. These issues are more likely to be compounded if the horse is not fully wound up! Furthermore, if one accepts that handicap racing forms more than half of all races on the cards of UK race meetings a few pounds of improvement or decay can mean the difference between winning and finishing down the field.
Each horses has a potential ability level, whether they achieve that is another matter. The better the horse is trained and looked after the more it is likely to achieve but it is accepted that genetics and skeletal soundness are factors outside the trainer’s remit. Finding the bandwidth to which each horse can aspire needs the trainer to be totally in tune with his charge and, whilst some achieve most fail in this regard. Based on this incongruity we only trust recent form.
We were fortunate to spend the day with Monty Roberts (The Horse Whisperer) and he gave us lots of information on horses and we adhere our betting to his golden principles. He told us that every horse that has ever been born or ever will be born would have optimum ground conditions. The onus rests solely on the bettor to find out before making an investment what that is!
Some racing people including trainers, irrationally spew that good horses go on any ground – they do not, some just handle it better or have something in hand of their rivals. A problem for systems is that they are unlikely to recognise/weigh/measure optimum or deteriorating conditions against the class the horses are racing in! It is here where most bets are won and lost.
So our intended wager has a tick in every box and a winning chance looks obvious, why would anyone compromise the bet once the horse arrives at the course after weeks/months of schooling and training? We know that trainers are not duty bound to give the ride to the best jockey available! They might use an apprentice, someone who is contracted, rides work or a favoured son. The owner might have some input or the decision might be political. But the bettor has no such restrictions. It is hard to measure or be scientific about the importance of jockeyship, but they are the trainer’s connection to the horse and it is often their decisions that dictate the result and our profit and loss.
The quadri-points listed probably represent 90%+ in importance towards a winning bet. Of course stable shenanigans, course configuration, draw and track bias, pace in the race, distance, weight, breeding and more can influence the result but the big four represents a core and serious starting point to any bet. This is where we part with most systems and strategies!
We always imagine placing a bet without one of those elements satisfied. In the cold light of day and without emotional fueling how confident would you feel about your bet then?
The Racing Horse