# Finding A Profit In Chase Races

One of the most popular articles I’ve written is about stats on the All Weather. So, since we’re now in the jumps season I thought I’d write a version for chase races!

To start I’m going to look at the performance of the top three horses in the betting with data going back to 2007. When we break this down we see:

 Odds Rank Runners Winners SR Profit ROI PIV 1 92326 29291 32% -7020 -8% 0.93 2 86499 16528 19% -10332 -12% 0.89 3 86527 11307 13% -12999 -15% 0.86

As expected we get a smooth curve both on ROI and strike rate decreasing the further away we get from the odds rank. However it is worth noting that the drop in strike rate from 1st to 2nd on these race types is very large.

We can also see that the PIV is below 1 for all of these ranks. Letâ€™s break down this data by days since last ran.

 DSLR Runners Winners SR Profit ROI PIV <=7 60429 7543 12% -13063 -22% 0.91 <=30 442967 45263 10% -124072 -28% 0.84 <=60 174667 16430 9% -47633 -27% 0.84

Again this doesnâ€™t look very promising but we are using very broad ranges and so it isnâ€™t unexpected. We can see again that there is a linear pattern to the strike rate as the DSLR gets further away.

If we take the best PIV for each of these two factors to look for horses who are favourites and have raced within the last seven days, then we find thatâ€¦

 Runners Winners SR Profit ROI PIV 9823 3224 33% -305 -3% 0.97

Just using that information and nothing more we are nearly at break even to SP of turf chase races.

Thatâ€™s pretty impressive!

Now imagine if we take that information weâ€™ve found and apply some common sense factors to it that not everybodyâ€™s looking at.

Is it going to be possible to find a profit?

To do this Iâ€™m going to use a rating that measures the competitiveness of each horse in the race. Currently I only have this rating for 2013 so Iâ€™m going to use the information that we learnt about the general race type and combine it with the top three ranked for my rating.

 Rating Rank Runners Winners SR Profit ROI PIV 1 232 85 37% -8 -3% 0.95 2 193 68 35% -5 -2% 0.93 3 109 39 36% 13 12% 1.08

And now we see something very interesting. If weâ€™re looking at the favourite in chase turf races where the horse has run within the last 7 days. Then my ratings top-rated increases the PIV and Strike Rate but not the ROI.

However the third best rated has a positive edge and has made a 12% ROI this year.

There are of course only 109 selections so far which is not a very big data sample and weâ€™d want to see some more, but weâ€™ve seen how just using two race condition factors and one rating that the majority of people donâ€™t have access to, we can find a profitable angle very quickly.

And donâ€™t forget this is to SP. If you were betting at Betfair then you would have not made a loss on any of them as you can see below.

 Rating Rank Runners Winners SR Profit ROI 1 232 85 37% 0 0% 2 193 68 35% 3 2% 3 109 39 36% 18 16%

Those figures are after a 5% commission has been taken into account. But weâ€™ve found we need more data so Iâ€™m going to change out the rating Iâ€™m using with another rating that I have the entire history for and measures form.

 Rating Rank Runners Winners SR Profit ROI PIV 1 3255 1189 37% -28 -1% 0.99 2 1854 644 35% -21 -1% 1.00 3 1272 411 32% -52 -4% 0.96

None of this rating made a profit, but all increased the PIVÂ  and runners ranked in the top two are at a pretty much break-even point when betting to SP in these conditions. Again if betting to Betfair or even better BOG, youâ€™d be making a profit on these selections, combined with a very high strike rate.

So weâ€™ve found that in chase turf races favourites whoâ€™ve had a run in less than seven days only lose 3% on their bets at SP. This would be break-even to BOG or Betfair odds.

But, more importantly. What this shows is that finding a profitable angle does not have to be complicated. It can be very simple and by combining this general race angle with just one or two ratings that the majority of the betting public arenâ€™t using, you can find yourself making a profit very quickly.

### Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. You can also check out my personal blog or my personal Instagram account.

1. william says:

Hi Michael.do you still have the software to rate each race using the racing post. cheers

2. Do you mean the spreadsheet available at http://www.puntology.com? I’ve actually recently redone this and made it into a piece of one-click rating software. We’re going to be releasing it in the new year.

1. william says:

yeah thats it Michael. look forward to the update cheers

3. Graham Taylor says:

one-click rating software, Yes that will be very interesting
the old way was a pain, even though i still have it.
Any date for this release Michael ?

1. It’s going to be in January but we don’t have a specific date yet.

4. raghuvardhan says:

been reading ur text since many months i’m not up with card on bank account so i ll be subscribing soon till then … i ll enjoy ur plan mail and good the things are apperciable ….

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