This is a nine runner, 1 mile 4 furlong race with a massive prize pool of £999,999. As you would expect, all these runners are excellent horses and, of course, they are all aged 3.
First of all I am going to look at what I consider to be the two key trends that we should make a note of.
- The top four in the betting have won 14 out of the last 15 races. This tells us that the market is a very accurate predictor in this race
- A recent performance is a strong indicator but ideally not within 2 weeks as this proves to not give the horse enough rest period
With those two trends in mind let’s look at the runners in this race and create our shortlist.
I am going to start by removing runners who didn’t run a good race in their last race. This would remove Minimize Risk from our list of contenders.
Looking at speed projections we have Bonfire, Camelot and Main Sequence at the top of the pack, if we use speed graphs to look at recent performances then we can confirm these three runners as being potentially the fastest over similar conditions.
I will remove Cavaleiro as he has not had a good race for 259 days.
All the rest of the runners have potential…
Camelot has been improving rapidly and is by far the strongest in my Contender strength rating.
Main Sequence has the most impressive collateral form rating and has also been improving steadily. While the projected speed is not as good as Camelot it is still strong enough to be considered seriously. He has also won every single race he has ever been in.
Mickdaam has shown a decline in performance over similar conditions and his volatility is high. In a race of this quality we don’t want to be placing our money on a volatile runner and so I am going to remove him from contention.
Astrology doesn’t look to have enough class to be able to match the other runners in this race and we would need to see an improvement for this runner to cross the line first.
Of the rest Bonfire looks interesting having performed excellently in his last race in May. His collateral form has shown improvement and if he continues to perform this way then he could be a threat.
This is a hard race to make decisions in and I my three strongest contenders are Camelot, Bonfire and Main Sequence. Looking at the market Camelot is, at the time of writing this, an odds-on favourite and while he looks to be the strongest I would not want to be getting involved at those odds.
That leaves me with Bonfire and Main Sequence as each-way bets. You may want to consider them for place only bets. However I will also be looking at some exotic combinations to see if I can get good enough odds involving these runners.
Let me know who you will be betting on by leaving a comment below.