It is the last day of the Cheltenham Festival. On the blog we have been analysing the major race each day and it has been a good year for the Race Advisor. I hope that we can finish the festival with some good profits in the biggest race of the festival, the Gold Cup!
There are 15 runners taking part in the event and this means that we need to narrow the field down a lot. If you have been following the previous races we have analysed then you will most likely be starting to get a feel for how I do things. All the analysis is done using the tools that are available to the Race Advisor members.
We are going to use a slightly different approach today than the previous days as the Improver Graphs do not have any declining performers!
I am going to start by removing those runners who have a low Contender Strength (CNTDR) and a low RL figure. If there is no RL figure then they will still be removed if their odds in the live market are over 29.
This takes four runners out of contention immediately.
I have now expanded the information for the runners and am looking to remove any runner that has not won for a long time. We are looking for horses that can win and so I am comfortable in removing any that haven’t. This removes another three from contention. I have highlighted Burton Port because he has not won since 2010. However he has only recently started racing again on the 12th February where he came 2nd and the market is indicating he has a good chance so we need to look at him further.
This leaves us with 8 runners in what is going to be a very tough race, as always.
We still need to remove some more runners from contention before we can decide on how to bet and I am going to focus on those that have a comparatively low Contender Strength and RL to the rest of the field. This takes out The Giant Bolster and Synchronised. Notice that I have left in Weird Al for the moment because although his Contender Strength is lower we weren’t able to calculate an RL ratings for him and so he warrants further investigations.
Looking at the RA Graphs, unfortunately there are too many to show here but you can see examples of in the previous races we have analysed this week, Long Run and Burton Port look to have the edge, although Kauto Star and Midnight Chase are not far behind. Quel Esprit is not quite as good and so I shall remove him as a contender.
We are down to five contenders with Long Run, Burton Port, Kauto Star, Midnight Chase and Weird Al. It is tempting at this point to suggest a dutch as a profit could be made but I am going to look at connection information before making any final decisions.
There are only three runners with any serious connection form to look at. This form is over similar conditions to todays race and none of them give us any reason to throw out these runners.
Selection: This is a race which one would probably best be advised to stay away from betting in, it is wide open and anything could happen. While I think Kauto Star would need to perform exceptionally to win, I am not so confident in him not doing this to bet against him. The only solution for me in this race is to dutch bet Long Run, Kauto Star, Burton Port, Midnight Chase and Weird Al. At the current odds this would make more than a 25% return on investment if one of them wins which is a perfectly good profit. For those who prefer to put their money on one runner then I would most likely go for Burton Port each-way.
As always I am keen to hear what you think and in this open race I am sure there are going to be a big variety in opinions! Let me know yours by leaving a comment below.