The first leg of the Champions League Quarter finals could have been better for the English teams involve with both Manchester United and Arsenal facing difficult tasks in the second leg to qualify for the semi-finals. Looking back historically the team favoured by the result of the first leg match does not necessarily mean automatic progression. It is generally better to look at each of these games individually.
CSKA Moscow v Inter Milan
Inter Milan missed an opportunity to book their place in the semi-finals last Wednesday and as our statistics show have never scored away from home, in a quarter-final leg, in the past ten years. Moscow has no history in European quarter-final matches. This means all we can go on is their home record for the four times they have qualified into the group stages. During this time they have scored eleven times from twelve matches (plus once against Seville in this year´s second round). These figures hardly advertise the potential of a “goalfest”, and we suggest that a correct score of 0-0 or 1-0 is most likely.
Barcelona v Arsenal
Inasmuch as Arsenal provided a spirited display to force a draw at home to Barcelona, their away form in quarter-final ties over the past ten years leaves them at a disadvantage. They have never won away from home at this stage of the competition and have only scored four goals in five games.
Barcelona, by comparison, has an almost impeccable home record during this period having won five out of six matches and scoring fourteen goals in the process. We anticipate a wide margin victory for the Spanish side with a score line of 2-0 or 3-0.
Bordeaux v Lyon
Not since 2004 has a team overturned a two goal deficit coming into the second leg of a quarter-final tie, and Bordeaux face an uphill struggle to overcome Lyon. Last week we showed statistics for the two teams´ head-to-head matches played over the last 10 years at Lyon. Below you can see the corresponding details for games played at Bordeaux over the same period.
The French league leaders have a terrible record against Lyon having won once at home against their domestic rivals in the past decade. Needing to score at least three goals against a team whom they have managed an average of less than one seems an impossible task. The most common score in the domestic fixtures featured between the two teams has been 1-1 or a 1-0 victory to Lyon.
Manchester United v Bayern Munich
Manchester United´s home form in quarter-final ties is best described as erratic. One thing is for sure and that is that they score goals. Twenty goals in seven games is by far the highest of any team at this stage of the competition. Our statistics shows that they concede goals as well having let in an average of almost two goals in each of those games.
Bayern Munich´s statistics allow for a greater accuracy in predicting the outcome of this game. They have not won away from home at this stage since 2001 and their most recent four games show a tendency to leak an average of three goals per game whilst scoring an average of just one goal. I feel that a scoreline of 3-1 or 4-1 to Manchester United is a strong possibility.
In the above matches I have predicted two possible scores for each of the games. I suggest that the best way to cover these selections (or your own) is in a permed bet. A total of ([2 x 2] x 6) 24 bets. Provided that two of these results are correct the bet should show a profit. You can structure the bet should like below:-
CSKA Moscow 0 v Inter Milan 0 (13/2) or CSKA Moscow 1 v Inter Milan 0 (6/1)
Barcelona 2 v Arsenal 0 (6/1) or Barcelona 3 v Arsenal 0 (8/1)
Bordeaux 0 v Lyon 1 (6/1) or Bordeaux 1 v Lyon 1 (11/2)
Manchester Utd 3 v Bayern Munich 1 (12/1) or Manchester Utd 4 v Bayern Munich 1 (25/1)
“Perm any one selection from each match in six correct score doubles”
(The figures in brackets relate to the general odds available at the time of writing this article)