Advice

Breaking Down A Profitable Bettor

Profitable bettors always follow similar styles. Over the last few weeks we have been looking in details at what value means, how to calculate it and why you need it to be profitable.

All profitable bettors will look similar to…

Decides on whether they are a planned or default value bettor (often done without realising by choice of methods to find selections)

Finds specific horses that make a profit in certain races (default value bettor) or creates mathematical odds lines and uses them to bet on value (planned value bettor)

Places bets

Analyses bets over short-term (1-3 months) and long-term (6 months to 2 years)

That makes it sound very easy, and of course we know that it isn’t. There are also some traits that professional bettors have which have not been covered and I think it is worthwhile to cover them here.

Willingness to learn and be proven wrong

This is a big one. Every pro that I know personally never claims to know everything. We are always learning from each other and even from people who don’t bet at all! Sometimes you will get asked a question that sets you thinking.

Sports betting is constantly changing and while the basic principles stay the same, ways of doing things change and can be improved upon. While a pro bettor is not going to give away his whole strategy he will often ask others what they think of certain calcuations or if they agree with opinions. After all betting is all about opinions and the more we have when deciding a strategy to use then the better that strategy is likely to be.

You will notice that this is in complete opposite to a lot of losing punters who either claim to kn0w everything about a horse or stable, have inside knowledge that is guaranteed to win, or simply just aren’t prepared to accept something might be right because they can’t understand it.

If you are having trouble understanding anything then go and ask the person who wrote it, or other people to see if they can understand what is being said or explained. Until you understand what is being said it is impossible to make an assessment of whether you agree with it or not.

Understanding it is a long-term game

I do not know of a single pro bettor who watches the races every day. Most will either place their bets in the morning or during the day automatically. The few that I know who use live markets and bet live do so but don’t watch many of the races. Why?

Because a single race is not important. Betting is a long-term game and you may win a £1000 one day, lose £2000 the next and win £1500 the day after.

Successful bettors understand that trying to follow the game in the short term is going to make it much harder when you are having losing streaks. Looking at your results should be done monthly at the minimum but as long as you are making a profit every 3 months then you are doing well.

Realise they will lose more bets than they win and still make a profit

It is the lot of a sports bettor to lose more bets than we win. There is no way to get around this, it is the nature of the game. Ultimately, winning and losing does not matter. It is about the profit made at the end of the month and the quarter.

If you have made a profit then the amount of wins and losses is not important. What is important is that because we lose more than we win, the losing streaks are going to be longer than the winning streaks. By definition a winning streak is followed by a losing streak and vice-versa.

Coming to terms with the fact that this is the only way it can work and not getting worried about the losing streaks is crucial to your success.

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. You can also check out my personal blog or my personal Instagram account.

2 Comments

  1. With that in mind yesterday the Evening Value service had nearly all 2nds and no winners so from that I have decided to do place only in future/eachway.
    I am told that is non-sencical in a daily value service.
    But, when it wipes out my profit from the day and could have made a profit if doing them to be placed.
    E/W is the way to go. To lose £5 on a 7.8 shot, and win 2.5 for £5, is not losing 10 x 10. As the EVS did yesterday. Profit being the main aim. It will be Each Way for me.

  2. Mr L Duncan may have a point. Where he is totally wrong though is to make the judgement he has done on the evidence of just one days results. Monitor the results and profit/loss both e/w and win only for at least one month before deciding! Daily profit/loss is unimportant, it is only the long term that matters!
    Paul J

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