Today at 3pm the Betfair Ascot Chase race takes place. At the Race Advisor this comes under our Big Race Trends and we have all the trends shown for the last 10 years. If you aren’t yet a member of the Race Advisor then you can join here.
It has been a little while since I did a race preview and so I thought that I would take the opportunity to look at the Betfair Ascot Chase race today using some of the features inside the Race Advisor.
The first thing that we are going to look at are the CNTDR figures. These figures are not ratings in the normal sense but rather an indication of the strength of a horse’s ability to be a contender in the race.
We have two clear strong contenders based on these figures with Medermit and Riverside Thames.
Medermit has been a Course winner before and Riverside Thames has been both a Course and Distance winner before.
I have now sorted the race card by the RL figures. RL are a prediction of the speed that the horse could achieve based on recent performances. The Sawyer stands out at the top with the next best being Gauvain. We can also see that in the Speed column for The Sawyer there is a green speed bar of 1.2 being displayed. This indicates that The Sawyer has been a good speed improver recently.
In the image above you can also see that I have circled Riverside Theatre again. This is because he does not have an RL figure. It is not always possible to calculate the RL figures and so any runner with a strong CNTDR figure and no RL must be looked at with caution.
Recent finish positions indicate that Riverside Theatre, Medermit and Kauto Stone should be considered. Gauvain seems to be in a pattern of winning and then falling, if that happened to continue today then he would be a winner!
So far we have had no reason to include I’msingingtheblues, Tatenan and Little Josh so I am going to remove them from our contenders. However we are going to look at some jockey trainer information before making any further decisions.
I have chosen to filter the Trainer and Jockey information specifically by Race Type, Course and Distance so we are only looking at their races which match over these conditions exactly. This means the samples are small but can give us an idea of what to expect.
The Sawyer’s connections have good figures and also have made a profit in the win market which indicates that they are under bet often enough, something we should remember!
Gaurain’s jockey has a good strike rate and Medermit’s trainer does as well. The two that really stand out however are Riverside Theatre and Kauto Stone who both have connections with excellent strike rates.
We are now starting to see a pattern and the horses that have come up multiple times are Riverside Theatre, Medermit, The Sawyer and Kauto Stone. So I shall remove all the other runners from contention.
Finally I am going to look at the RA Graphs.
I have just shown the RA Graph for The Sawyer above but each horse has one that I have looked at. This shows the speed figures for the horse with the upper and lower confidence levels, race types, going, distance and finish position so we can quickly and visually analyse how the horse is performing over similar conditions to todays race.
We can see that The Sawyer’s performance over Chase races is preferred at a slightly longer distance and although having performed well enough to compete in this race (shown by the green and blue horizontal lines) the performance has been declining steadily which will remove him as a contender.
Medermit’s graph shows that he has been performing well but on better going while Riverside Theatre hasn’t raced in a while and so is unknown. Kauto Stone has been performing on the edge of being able to succeed in this race.
My selections would be Medermit, Riverside Theatre and Kauto Stone but I would find it very difficult to separate the three of them so would most likely go for a dutch bet as long as it returned a profit of at least 20%.
What a fantastic analysis, it covers every probablility.
Tony
Many thanks Tony.
Very interesting and will certainly consider joining based on this sort of accuracy! Thanks.
Sheila