Ascot The Final Day

14:30 Chesham Stakes

This is the longest race for two year olds at Ascot means we want to keep a close eye on distance preferences. By focusing on those runners that are not declining in speed and have the estimated necessary speed to win this race in todays conditions we are left with 8 potential contenders.

Taking a close look at the trainers over the race type and course and distance this narrows us down to just 6 who are Fort Bastion, Telwaar, Esentepe, Falls Of Loria, Bling King and Maybe.

Fort Bastion has been performing at a slightly lower class than may be necessary to win this race but he has shown improvement over his last two runs. His projected speed is the highest and so he cannot be removed for these reasons.

Telwaar certainly has the class to win this race and that has been improving but his speed against the others is a concern over this softer going and I wouldn’t want to place my money on him.

Esentepe has the potential to perform excellently in this race with a higher than necessary class level and increasing it rapidly over the last few races his projected speed is goo and he certainly could go the distance.

Falls Of Loria cannot be ignored for the same reason as Esentepe and it is likely that they are going to be battling it out for the finish.

Bling King should find the class level of this right easier than before and he certainly has the necessary speed and ability to win. However recently he has stopped improving in his performances and while he is a potential winner the variance he has shown recently would make him a reluctant bet.

Not much is known about Maybe except that he won his only race in IRE on the 11th May but A P O’Brien likes these conditions and he is likely to go off as favourite and so cannot be ignored.

My preference in this race is for Fort Bastion, Esentepe and Falls Of Loria. I will be looking to place a dutch bet on these runners and then having saver bet on Maybe so that a break-even is achieved should he win. I would be surprised if one of these do not place so a dutch bet in the place market may be good if the odds allow it. A wheeled exacta (an exacta bet for any combination of the above coming in the first two positions) may also be considered.

 

15:05 Hardwicke Stakes

As with all flat races I like to remove horses that have shown a decline in speed before anything else. Afsare is the only runner in this race to have done that and he is a non-runner today.

This is going to be a competitive race. The trainers that show preference over the race type and distance are A P O’Brien, L M Cumani, W J Haggas and C G Cox. Unfortunately none of the other trainers have had enough races to make a worthwhile judgment except for T P Tate and his runner Kings Gambit has been improving significantly over todays distance and going recently so we wouldn’t want to rule him out.

Calvaldos Blues is unlikely to have the class to win this race and so I will remove him from our potential contenders but all the other runners have shown that they can run at this level.

Laaheeb has been in a class decline recently and while he still has the potential to be a solid runner I cannot advise taking a closer look at a declining performer.

Of the rest Passion For Gold and Poet have shown the best performances over this distance before and there is no reason for them not to perform again today. Kings Gambit loves the going and is improving rapidly while Drunken Sailor has the best projected speed in the race.

This is going to be a very competitive race and with Await The Dawn odds-on, while still having all the potential, I would have to go against him. Passion For Gold, Poet, Drunken Sailor and Kings Gambit are all potentials and I would place a dutch bet across these. I would follow this with a dutch place bet on them for 50% of the potential profits of the win dutch.

 

15:45 Golden Jubilee Stakes

This sprint race is going to be a battle to the end in the major race of the day. Jimmy Styles and Royal Rock are both either declining in their speed or unlikely to have enough speed to win this race.

A M Balding and C O’Brien both have very low performance records on todays conditions and so their horses can also be removed from contention.

Of the rest Delegator looks to be very strong with an excellent record over the distance and going and a class level that is significantly higher than needed in this race. He would have been the one to watch if he hadn’t been a non-runner.

Elzaam looks like a strong threat and cannot be discounted, she likes the going and has been the faster runner over the distance. Projected to run at a tough pace today we don’t want to go against her.

Bated Breath cannot be ignored and neither can Star Witness. Both have shown good performances recently and should have no problem contending in this race.

The major races are always competitive and this one is no difference. I am going to be looking at a dutch bet across Bated Breath, Star Witness and Elzaam. I will also be looking at doing place bets on these three runners.

 

16:25 Wokingham Stakes

The biggest race of today so far with 28 declared runners. With 3 non-runners so far that reduces us to a still large field of 25 runners.

As always narrowing the field is going to be tough and in this sprint race I shall be using my usual technique of taking out any runners unlikely to have the speed or declining in their recent speed performance over similar conditions.

This leaves just 14 runners and taking trainer preferences into account leaves us with just 11.

Of these Anne Of Kiev, while lacking slightly in class, certainly has shown that if she continues to improve then she could be in the running. A strong performance is expected here at odds over 30 she seems to be offering good value.

Imperial Guest, while not liking the distance as much as others, is improving at a rapid pace and if this continues could certainly be a threat. The same can also be said for Pastoral Player who can be expected to run a good race today.

Waffle is the first runner with the proven class that I think could be in with a good chance to win the race and is not in declining form. His speed is excellent and the distance and going today is a strong preference for him. He could be the one to catch.

There are four potential runners in this race with Anne Of Kiev, Imperial Guest, Pastoral Player and Waffle. As usual I will be placing a dutch bet on each of these and using 50% of the potential profits for a dutch place bet.

 

17:00 Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap

Using my usual technique I have removed 12 horses (including the non-runners). Two more with poor trainer preferences can also be removed from contention.

Fox Hunt looks to be one of the strongest runners in this race, he has a preference for the going and distance and is a strong runner with class enough to win this race. He has been given an extra 2 pounds and this is unlikely to make a difference to his performance here today.

Blissful Moment has the highest projected speed in todays race and so cannot be ignored. Recently his performance have been excellent and he is showing himself to be a classy runner. He has actually had a pound removed since his last run and I would expect him to fly in this race with Fallon on board.

Averroes, while not the fastest runner in this race, has been improving steadily and should be able to hold his own. While he may not get to the front he is expected to be in contention for a place.

Jutland, Modun and Life And Sole both have potential stakes in this race as well being near enough to prove a potential threat.

This race is going to see me looking for an each-way bet on Blissful Moment and Fox Hunt with a place on Averroes (in the 5 to be placed market).

 

17:35 Queen Alexandra Stakes

The final race of the meeting has 18 runners in it none of which have produced good figures over similar conditions recently.

This is a race I would usually not be betting in and I have used a different technique for analysis. I started by removing my worst contender strength runners and then followed this up with trainer preferences, looking for those who have performed poorly in the same race type. This has brought me down to just seven runners. I then removed those runners who have shown a decline in class recently, leaving me with three potential candidates. These are Elyaadi, Font and Kayef.

I will be placing a small dutch bet on these for my smallest stakes but this is more for a bit of fun to watch the race out. I would advise caution in this race.

 

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. You can also check out my personal blog or my personal Instagram account.

6 Comments

  1. hi really tough today I enjoyed the analysis .but i shall look elsewhere for a small bet today. best regards mike dunn

  2. the 5 o clock !! Got home today had a look at your analysis, was the only race i bet on and I picked a good one! decided to go with what you said…what a pay off…great selections!

  3. Hi you done well with the last two i had Ann of Kiev myself each way and i had one bet on the last Fox Hunt I had four out of six winners . regards David Quinn

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