Advice

Racing Post Trophy Festival Day 1 Preview

Photo of Michael Wilding Michael WildingOctober 26, 2012
48 272 2 minutes read

Over the next three days Doncaster is hosting the Racing Post Trophy festival meeting. Today I’m going through the feature race of the day, the Racing Post / SIS Betting Shop Manager Of Year Handicap at 3:15pm.

There are 22 declared runners and the official going is soft, which the going stick has confirmed. The weather looks like there will be light showers throughout the day so the ground is likely to stay this condition for the day. The race is a 6 furlong sprint and so speed over the ground conditions is going to be of the most importance.

This is going to be a very competitive race with most runners having run over similar conditions before. I’m going to start by removing the runners who I feel have not won or run a strong race in the last year. These runners can be brought back in later if we have evidence that they me be able to put in a strong race. Doing this removes seven runners from the field.

Of the runners left, looking at those who have performed well over the exact same conditions as todays race, Prodigality stands out having put in two very strong runs on these conditions recently. Thunderball also showed significant improvement when winning the race at Ascot on the 1tth May, however this was surpassed by Shropshire’s performance on the 6th May at Newmarket. For both of these runners, the concern is whether they can repeat those performances.

Widening our filter we have to take into consideration Khubala who has shown solid good performances recently over similar conditions. Other runners who could be a threat include Gatepost, Farlow, Head Of Steam and Jonny Mudball.

Next I’m going to take a look at each runners past performances over the last year to see if any are improving or declining. Doing this we can see that Prodigality has been performing consistently and putting in strong figures. None of the other runners have been putting in such strong performances.

Prodigality is looking to be the strongest runner in this race but I’m going to take a look at the market to see if there are any other runners that we should consider. Khubala is the only runner that looks worth going back to and double checking on.

As we mentioned earlier, this runner has been performing strongly but all the figures suggest that there will need to be some significant improvement in order to compete with Prodigality.

My selection in this race is going to be Prodigality to win.

Let me know who you are going to be betting on by leaving a comment below.

Photo of Michael Wilding Michael WildingOctober 26, 2012
48 272 2 minutes read
Photo of Michael Wilding

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. You can also check out my personal blog or my personal Instagram account.

48 Comments

  1. Michael,

    While I agree with you in regard to the two most likely, I’d be inclined to go with Khubala to repeat his Ffos Las running when he beat Prodigality fairly and squarely at level weights. Today he has a sizable 5lbs weight advantage. Admittedly, Prodigality improved to set similar figures (by my methodology) in the Portland and when winning at Goodwood lto. However, I also have improvement for Khubala from Ffos Las to Ascot where the winner got first run on him but was being overhauled hand over fist at the finish.

    I guess we shall have to wait and see, but it’s nice to have confirmation of my own analysis – I almost always go with two per race!

    Steve

    1. Khubala certainly could make the running. Prodigality took the edge for me because that race seemed to be a slightly lower performance than he has been putting in and then the race at Goodwood on the 14th October was very strong. There was definitely an improvement in Khubala’s last race as well. I actually very seldom go with one, which you have probably noticed, but I think it will be tough to get value going for Khubala and Prodigality today. Looking forward to watching it. Good luck with your bets.

  2. Hi Michael
    Its tempting to look for bigger priced selections in races like this but sometimes the obvious choice is the way forward. I’m with you on this one.
    Jon

    2. Hi micheal, well i’m with you on prodigality and am also on cheveton e/w.
      Happy punting n good luck
      Cheers jack

    1. I’m not sure if it has the class to win this race though but I hope that it comes in for you.

  11. I followed the early ££ khubala use bet365 as its 4:1 offer race so a win gets extra free 1 pt bet

  12. Hi, I think it’s a lottery given the conditions, it does look to be between Khubala and Prodigality and my choice is the former but that’s mainly because I like Frankie.
    Could be better value to go for an EW price, maybe Colonel Mak or Mehdi.
    Best of luck
    Don

    1. It is certainly going to be competitive. For me the problem with an each-way that after Prodigality and Khubala there are too many potentials who could place.

    1. A strong race is one where either the runner won or came within a competitive distance of the winner considering the conditions of the race.

  15. Cheveton is my choice, likes the soft ground, ran well at Ayr last month, is in this off a win recently and a reasonable price, does it for me!

    1. All very solid reasons for the pick and you are certainly not alone in fancying him. Good luck.

  16. Difficult to argue with your two, Michael. I will dutch them
    but also have an EW bet on Cheveton. Distance winner, handles
    the ground. won 4 days ago 6ib rise, so should be fighting fit.

    I’m also a fan of J Fanning and also a fan of winning horses
    coming back with the same Jockey. 12.00 on BF at 11.45

  17. Not a race I was going to bet, until the interest shown initially by Michael today. That said, I have decided to avoid the front two in the market for jockey/trainer/class elements as my filters and I have dutched Ancient Cross @ 12.5, Colonel Mak @ 14.5 and Johnny Mudball @ 20 for a nice profit if successful. Whatever happens, I shan’t be skint after the race nor shall I retire on the profits!
    Looking forward to a typical end of season sprint with quite a few contenders…

    1. A good break down Martin and good luck with the dutch. Jonny Mudball I thought looked interesting but didn’t think he would have the class to compete with the market leaders.

  20. No I can not say that I have one. Towcester is my Nearest.

    Then it is a toss up between Newbury and Ascot.

    I am following Ron on this one at Chepstow.
    I have just checked and it is running as he said in his e-mail last week.

    6 month off since it last ran.
    Form looks good, indicating some improvement is due.
    Good trainer and a good jockey the combination sits good with me.
    so I think a decent eachway wager is my bet.
    Ron will be back on Monday from his Cruise.

  22. rte-DOSAGE SYSTEM… Read all your info. carefully and found it very interesting and informative. A couple of queries however.What info do you use if you don’t have 15 yr.win info available for a particular race? Also where do I find this 15 yr info? (without paying!).Back to the subject matter my selecion would have been ANCIENT CROSS based on his well-run 2nd on his previous outing.

  24. Heavy ground, end of season handicap. Inevitably one of the most unfit, exposed and deficient handicappers in this grade of racing won! I couldn’t have backed that nag with stolen money, but that’s why the bookies love these sorts of ludicrous affairs.

    1. It was a tough race and disappointed with Prodigality. Hopefully we will do better in the feature race tomorrow.

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