Over the next three days Doncaster is hosting the Racing Post Trophy festival meeting. Today I’m going through the feature race of the day, the Racing Post / SIS Betting Shop Manager Of Year Handicap at 3:15pm.
There are 22 declared runners and the official going is soft, which the going stick has confirmed. The weather looks like there will be light showers throughout the day so the ground is likely to stay this condition for the day. The race is a 6 furlong sprint and so speed over the ground conditions is going to be of the most importance.
This is going to be a very competitive race with most runners having run over similar conditions before. I’m going to start by removing the runners who I feel have not won or run a strong race in the last year. These runners can be brought back in later if we have evidence that they me be able to put in a strong race. Doing this removes seven runners from the field.
Of the runners left, looking at those who have performed well over the exact same conditions as todays race, Prodigality stands out having put in two very strong runs on these conditions recently. Thunderball also showed significant improvement when winning the race at Ascot on the 1tth May, however this was surpassed by Shropshire’s performance on the 6th May at Newmarket. For both of these runners, the concern is whether they can repeat those performances.
Widening our filter we have to take into consideration Khubala who has shown solid good performances recently over similar conditions. Other runners who could be a threat include Gatepost, Farlow, Head Of Steam and Jonny Mudball.
Next I’m going to take a look at each runners past performances over the last year to see if any are improving or declining. Doing this we can see that Prodigality has been performing consistently and putting in strong figures. None of the other runners have been putting in such strong performances.
Prodigality is looking to be the strongest runner in this race but I’m going to take a look at the market to see if there are any other runners that we should consider. Khubala is the only runner that looks worth going back to and double checking on.
As we mentioned earlier, this runner has been performing strongly but all the figures suggest that there will need to be some significant improvement in order to compete with Prodigality.
My selection in this race is going to be Prodigality to win.
Let me know who you are going to be betting on by leaving a comment below.