Guest strategy written by Glen
The idea of this system is to find the class horse with the highest ability in the race. We rate two areas of the horse’s performance. The first area is the Ability:
- Take the horse’s total win money (not money awarded for place finishes)
- Divide this by the number of winning races multiplied by 100
If we had a runner with £16,000 in prize money that has won four times then we would get:
16,000 / 400 = 40
His Ability rating would be 40. The next rating that we calculate is for the Class of the horse.
- Divide the prize money available in the horse’s last race by 100
If our runner’s last race was worth £35,000 then we would get:
35,000 / 100 = 350
The Class rating would be 350.
Finding the selections
There are a few rules to finding your selections once you have your ratings.
- Your selection needs to have previously won the most valuable race of all the runners
- Your selection should not have moved up or down by more than 10 pounds since its last race
- Your selection should be in the top 4 rated horses for both ratings
I would also suggest that when you have these selections you do a bit of further analysis on them to make sure that they like the distance and going etc….
You could also further refine the strategy, e.g. bet the only if selection is clear by 40 or more points
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Hi Glen
You seem to be using the VDW ability rating and last time out class rating? Are you a VDW fan?
Kind Regards
Hi Paul
not realy a fan but i like the logical aproach and the aim of this system witch
is to find the class horse in the race and you can forget any hype just make your decision on horses ability
i should add that this system might be seen to better use in top grade races only
group,listed,stakes,class1 & class2 i wouldent realy try this on low level handycaps
far to meny vairables not least the handy caping with the above races they all carry 9.00 stones normaly except when mixt male/femails and they will have carried same in previous races
thanks for question Paul
kind regards
Glen
Hi Glen
I would further restrict to 4yo+ on the flat and 6yo+ over the jumps and adjust lto speed figure for todays race.
Kind Regards
A good idea Paul, what is your reasoning behind it and what method would you use to adjust the lto speed figure?
The real question is does this rating lead you to more winners?? than say the form ratings . speed ratings . distance ratings . course ratings . etc etc or is it just another task to add on to the endless tasks associated with picking winners.
What is the IMPACT VALUE of the these class ratings or am I barking up the wrong tree?
Hi Pete
you made me smile with that question i liked the bit about the endless task but to see
it that way then is not every system a task even just us trying to read the form of a ten horse race in the racing post a task? dos the ratings lead you to more winners? turn that on its head and it will lead you to less loosers as your using this on the best races anyway then they are fewer of them,straight away you have cut your loses
but seriously if like me you have looked at these races onless you have a bias to one
of the horses you dount know were to start because they have all been in good valuable
races. so how do you make a choice?
when you say are you barking up the wrong tree depends on how your looking at it
the system is mearly pointing you to the 1 or 2 true class horse in the race by vertue of dividing winning prize money by races won it shows who has been winning
the best and most valuable races, for smarter guys than me they could just do the math in their heads.but i`m sure diffrent people like diffrent systems and and this might not be one of yours Pete, i am waiteing to see lots more from other members here after all we`re here to help each other,hope that was of some help Pete
kind regards
Glen
Hi Race Advisor
I have dipped my toe in and out of the VDW waters for quite a few years now but have never really mastered his method. Instead I have used the very basics and tinkered about with bolt on’s picked up over the ensuing years.
The reasoning for restricting to 4yo+ on the flat and 6yo+ over the sticks is to avoid improving types whom are still developing and finding their way or about to find their way!!! The speed figure is TS in the Racing Post online form page from the last race, adjusted for today’s weight but always use code to code (Chase to Chase, Hurdle to Hurdle, Turf to Turf etc.) I also use code to code when compiling the ability rating.
Another bolt on is if the FC fav has several horses ahead of it on the RPR I tend to see that as a negative (check your Racing Post later today/or online tonight and seek out those FC Fav’s that are lower down on the RPR ratings and note how many don’t get their head in front) more so in handicaps although if the price is short trust to your own judgement. It is not so much a system in my case more a way to shorten the field to real contenders.
I did mean to respond earlier but I was distracted by the soccer, tennis and then this evenings racing.
Kind Regards
Hi Again
Just a further note to say that I do go as low as class four races. A quick look at yesterdays racing concerning the RPR rating as mentioned above please find below (handicaps only) lesser rated FC favs.
SANDOWN 2.20pm
FCF Secret Asset FC 5/2 – Lost 2/1
DONCASTER 3.35pm
FCF Ancient Cross FC 4/1 – 2nd 9/2 (squeaky bum time – short head)
DONCASTER 5.15pm FC 3/1 – Lost 4/1
WARWICK 3.45pm
FCF Slip Sliding Away FC 9/4 – Lost 11/4
BEVERLEY 7.25pm
FCF Whispered Times FC 6/4 – Lost 7/2 (would the 6/4 FC have been too short? your call)
It does not always work out like this but I find it a helpful tool.
Kind Regards
Glen
Thanks for the response I do understand what you are saying. I’ve been trying to link the Class horse with Raceform Speed- Additionally my Ability Rating is in years rather than races – so I use (total win prize / (Age-1)) This gives me the winnings per year of the horse. Currently I have had a few winners when picking the highest of the top of the 4 in Bf but I don’t know whether it will pay the mortgage long term. How do you treat the age difference?
Pete
Pete, interesting you mentioned impact values as they are my preferred method of building strategies and an effective way to start testing a rating. Thanks for the reply Paul, I think it is all about finding contenders. It seems that a lot of effort is put into finding the winner where as the contenders should be the focus of the concentration. When you concentrate on finding winners and profitable methods you are melding two parts of a strategy. It should be find contenders and then decide on which of them to bet, in my opinion.
It looks like your strategy has a good non-contenders removal strike rate, do you have any figures on it?
Pete, I am not sure whether that will be enough to make a long-term profit without further analysis but will be interesting to see, do you do manual analysis afterwards?
HI guys Glen here aka Horsemangg
well this is great we are all communicating a little bit more i have seen somewere
theirs 30 members on this site so i would just like to say to all come on guys 30 heads are better than one i`m new here but so far i`ve seen most post an articals from the race advisor i am sure you all have little tipits of information that may be of some use to some or all on here this is what its here for so lets use it. it dosent matter how small of an idea or you think its silly some one may be working along those lines and what you say may be a big help also it may be something that can be open for debate so lets come together and help each other to a prosperous betting future so lets see more names up here.
Hi Pete
thats an interesting way of doing it i must admit i have not looked at it that way,BUT generaly im looking at same age races 3 and 4-y-o the one thing i see with that as i write this is that it could be miss leeding even though you have had some success with it as meny of the top 3 and 4 year olds havent had to meny races as they dont go handycaping and have to wait for their races to come round although it depends on what the age range in the race your using are, as i straight away saw a 6-y-o who has won a high amount of prize money but because he`s 6 then that could have been accumilated over 8,9 or 10 races but would only be divid by its age
witch may make him look to have a higher figure than an inproving 4-y-o who is not to far behind having won fewer races or if a 4-y-o has won 6 good races from 3 to 4 it would now only have that divided by 4 rather than 6 witch would in my mind give a false reading tell me what you think i might be missing your meaning
kind regards
glen
HI Race Advisor
i`m not sure i agree with with your comment as finding the winner is just a tearm we use as that is what we`re looking for
but when weighing up a race or useing ratings we are looking for contenders after all thats what the first three in any system is giving you the top contenders
if we just concentrate on the first 3,4 in the betting then they are our contenders
so you see its just the end name of what we are aiming for anyway the “WINNER”
as always
kind regards
glen
This topic has now been moved to the forum at http://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/forum/horse-racing/classability-rating-system/ and can be discussed their.