Advice

Will Tips Work For You

Today I want to write about something that I hope will make the difference to your profits if you have ever considered using a tipster. If you are a regular visitor to my blog then you will know that if you are going to try a tipster you need to research them carefully and then give them at least three months to make a profit for you.

It is not uncommon to only consider how much profit a tipster has been making recently, and how much money you can make. But, if you take a little bit longer then not only will you determine whether the tipster is correct for you, but also you will be on the track to make long-term profits from them!

I am going to assume that you have already done your research into the tipster you are interested in trying. This means that…

  • You have looked at their past results
  • You know the strike rate and are comfortable with it and any potential downswings that may occur (the lower the strike rate the bigger the downswings)
  • You now the long-term, at least a year, ROI (return on investment) and are happy with it
  • You know what size bankroll, in units, is recommended for the selections
  • You know how many bets on average you are going to get every month
  • You understand that if you go with them you need to give them at least 3 months to prove their long-term profitability

With all this information you can now make the decision as to whether this tipster is going to be for you. The first thing to define is how much profit YOU want to make each month on average. Please remember that everything is going to be based on averages, some months it may be more, some less but, over the period of three to six months, it will average out at these figures. This is why you must give your tipster at least three months.

When setting how much profit you want to make there is one rule, be realistic. You can tweak this later on but, if you only have £100 to bet with, don’t write down a figure of £1000 because this just won’t happen. Be realistic with what you would like to make and you will find that not all tipsters are bad!

I am going to write some details for an imaginary tipster service who get a…

  • 27% strike rate
  • 35% ROI
  • Require a 50 unit bankroll
  • Average 125 bets per month

Here is what we are going to do. We are going to start by working everything out in units and then change this to see how much money we need to make our profit target. Then we decide if this tipster is for us.

If we place 1 unit on every selection then we are betting 125 units per month. The ROI is 35% which means that we will be making a profit of…

125 (amount we have bet) X 0.35 = 43.75

To get the 0.35 you take the ROI and move the decimal place two spaces to the left. If it was 27% ROI then this figure would be 0.27.

We are making 43.75 units profit per month. The profit we want to make is not the only thing we must consider, we must also consider the cost of the service! Let’s say that our service costs £37 per month. We add this to the £200 profit that we want to make and we are now looking to make £237 per month.

Next we need to calculate the unit size we will need to be betting in order to make this profit. This is done simply by dividing £237 by the 43.75 units profit we will make on average…

£237 divided by 43.75 = 5.42

In order to make this average profit each month we will need to be betting £5.42 per bet. You may want to use this exact figure or round it up to £6, either will do but I am going to round it up to £6.

Going back up, take another look at our figures for this service and we can see that they recommend a 50 unit bankroll. We now know that we need to be betting £6 per bet to make the average profit that we want. So, to calculate our bankroll we use the amount we need to place per bet and multiple it by the recommended bankroll.

£6 X 50 = 300

So, to get a profit of £237 which is £200 for us and £37 for the service we need to have a bankroll of £300 to bet with. Now we can ask ourselves if the £300 is something that we can put aside and use comfortably. If it is then we know the tipster is for us. If we don’t have that much money then either we need to change our profit expectation or look for a different tipster. If we have more available then we can make our profit expectation higher and re-calculate it to see how much we can bet with the bankroll we do have.

Using this technique before you join a tipster will give the right approach, and enable you to stick with them with confidence for the minimum three months. If you have done your research properly then you will find that a lot of the time the tipsters are profitable and you can see your bankroll growing steadily. But please never bet with money that you cannot afford to lose.

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. You can also check out my personal blog or my personal Instagram account.

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