As a group of people, bettors spend far too long trying to find the next best thing. We’re always on the hunt for the dream. The dream where you can sit back and do very little work, place bets and make very big profits.
It’s a dream that is very tempting.
But it’s also a dream that is never going to turn into reality.
However, it’s that dream which drives us to keep trying new methods, looking for new services and attempting new approaches.
We spend all this time searching for something that’s going to finally make us rich from our betting and in doing that we ignore the one thing that can actually do it…
Ourselves.
The most important part of being a successful bettor is you.
But the majority of bettors find this very difficult to believe. It can be for a number of reasons. Perhaps it’s because although you want to believe you can make long-term profits you not 100% confident you can. Or maybe it’s because you don’t think you’re clever enough. Or maybe it’s because you don’t think you have enough time to devote to it.
Whatever the reason, the only reason for not making a profit is because you’re not using the one thing that is going to give you the best chance.
You.
It’s possible to make a profit from betting without any previous experience of horse racing. It’s possible to make a profit from betting without any special tools, equipment or services.
Yes… those things can help. They can make it easier and speed up the process. But they’re not necessary.
And if you are missing the core belief that you can achieve what you want to then it doesn’t matter how many services you join. None of them will help you.
Recently I’ve been writing about some advanced odds line techniques and methods for analysing races.
Which are very effective.
But it’s time to take it right back to the roots and start to look at what you can do without any of that knowledge.
So today I’d like to finish this post by asking you a question.
I’d like you to leave me a comment letting me know what you find hardest to overcome with your confidence towards your betting.
It could be that:
- You don’t think you have enough time
- You’re not sure if it’s possible to make profits
- You don’t have enough experience to analyse races
- You’re no good at maths
Or anything else.
I know this is going to be tough. I’m asking you to be totally open about what you personally find hard to overcome in your confidence.
But writing it down in the comment box below is going to make a difference. Putting it in black and white will make it physical, it will make it something that can be overcome.
So take a deep breath and leave me a comment now.
While you’re doing that I’m going to write a post showing how you can find winners without any knowledge, tools or services.
i’M AFRAID MY PROBLEM LIES WITH MY DESIRE TO FIND THE EASIEST METHOD OF BETTING AND THAT IS TO SUBSCRIBE TO A PROOFED PROFITABLE TIPSTER.THE DOWNSIDE TO THIS APPROACH IS KEEPING FAITH ON THE DOWNTURNS PLUS MY INABILITY TO MATCH THE ADVISED ODDS.I HAVE BEEN SUBSCRIBED TO YOUR SITE FOR QUITE A WHILE AND HAVE READ ALMOST ALL OF YOUR EMAILS BUT UNFORTUNATELY BECAUSE I HAVEN’T APPLIED MYSELF TO YOUR EXCELLENT ADVICE I AM NO FURTHER FORWARD IN MY BETTING.OF COURSE I UNDERSTAND THAT THERE WOULD BE A LOT MORE SATISFACTION FROM PICKING MY OWN WINNERS AND HAVE MY OWN DESTINY IN MY OWN HANDS. I’VE BEEN HONEST.
Thanks for the great comment Simon. Using tipsters is definitely a valid approach, there are some articles about building a portfolio here. As well as our own betting we also run tipster portfolios. Every profitable angle is one to take advantage of.
Going through the downswings is tough, although a portfolio does help to reduce that.
We will be releasing access to the tipster portfolios we use very shortly, including daily updates of when they change and the way we stake on them as well. It may be what you’re looking for 😉
questions 2,3,4
Are you answering yes to those questions Dave?
sorry,yes i was,
The first one to tackle is why you don’t think it’s possible to make profits. Until you are confident that it is possible to make profits you’ll struggle to do so because the doubt will always be there. So… what is it that makes you think it isn’t possible?
having spent the last year studying live roulette c/o supercasino i have created my own method of play because if you want to succeed you have to rely upon yourself. i have also in between had another look at horse racing because unlike roulette there is alot more imformation available and once again via pen and paper i have created a possible winning method but still needs more work at this time , and also recently i have had a look at the 49s lottery which i think has more prospects than the national lottery because they dont keep switching the game machines and ball sets , because i have noticed the difference ie if you work out the numbers from those drawn from say merlin you have to wait until they use that machine again and suddenly your numbers will begin to make sense so thats why i went over to the 49s site and once again seeing signs of something of interest which you wont find elsewhere .,
Dont know how to bet with the ratings/Ranks I have (when should I bet them)
Novice at analysing data
Not good at regression techniques etc
Thanks for the comment Michael. If you’re a novice at data analysis I would stay away from regression techniques. You don’t need them to make a profit. Start with the ranks you have because ranks are easier to analyse than ratings. Reynolds Ranking is a very good approach for combining different ratings to get an overall power figure. There is a great approach for using them at http://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/the-power-of-ranking-ratings/
My issue lies in the fact I’m trying to work with so many different models, trying to refine them and improve on them…. abandoning them at the first minor disappointment that I never get to analyse how successful certain models are or which models are best in which scenario. I drown and get overwhelmed with the data I have available.
That’s a very common issue and you are definitely not alone Rich. My advice for this situation is to stop everything you’re doing. Then look at which race conditions you enjoy the most. Put into an archive any that don’t match these race conditions. From the rest take the one with the most promise, move the rest into archives. Focus on this one alone until it’s profitable. You may need to strip it back to the beginning and start paper trading at a lower level before adding layers into the approach. That’s fine. Feel free to comment with updates and we can give you advice. Before you begin paper trading look at the estimates of downswings, drawdowns and bankrolls so you know what to expect. If a drawdown could be 25 units and you only have a few bets a day then this could potentially last a few weeks or longer. Be prepared with what to expect to help prevent abandoning.
Hi Michael, My problem is i have too much information.That is good for narrowing down the contenders,But it takes to long to go through.I have trainers for courses,Trainer/Jockey combos and other information.I have a portfolio full of these.
Information overload is the key. If you’re primary focus of narrowing down is Trainer/Jockey data then just focus on that for initial race/contender selection reduction. Then look at using another technique to determine whether an actual bet is going to be placed, an approach which covers different areas of the horses performance to the one you used initially.
In 4 words
Coping with Losing Runs
This is a very hard one because it’s something that can’t be taught. The way I do this is to detach myself from my betting. I work out what the downswings are likely to be and what duration of time they’re likely to be over and then instantly double that in mind so I’m expecting at least as twice as much as an estimate of the worst. Then, unless staking requires it, I don’t look at results until the end of the month, very hard to do but the best way for me. If staking requires me to look at results then I do all the results first, without looking at running totals, then do the running total last to calculate the next set of stakes and don’t look at it again. That means it’s infront of me for the shortest time possible.
Hi Michael
Thanks for the reply I have tried using Reynolds Ranking but can not find a formula in excel to do the sums for you
I have posted on the forum to get help and also some excel forums but not having much look
I have tried the product formula in Excel but its not the same
So any help appreciated
You don’t need any special formulas, it’s simply a multiplication of each of the ranks. For example: =1*3*2*5
Sorry I thought you had to do all combinations ie 1*3 +1*2+ 1*5+3*2 +3*5 etc etc
Ah, no you don’t need to do that. But you can do that in Excel by doing =(1*3)+(1*2)+(1*5)+3*5) etc…
Yes knew how to do that but I just wanted to see if the was a function in excel to do it without much manual typing
On the plus side the reynolds ranking as picked out some good winners/ places today
however its back to my point of “Dont know how to bet with the ratings/Ranks I have (when should I bet them)”
If I could master that I may be nearly there
Ah, don’t think there is a function in Excel to do that. If you can code in Visual Basic then you could make a macro to do it for you.
Now you’ve got the reynolds ranking you need to monitor them on different race conditions and look for the contending (or winning) horses in each of those sets of conditions to build up a picture of what they’re reynolds rankings look like. When you have this you can use this pattern to find the strongest horses. This process should only pick out two or three, you can just bet them outright and paper trade that approach or then use some of your own analysis to confirm whether they should be bets or not.