Michael Wilding
Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. You can also check out my personal blog or my personal Instagram account.
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`1 Access to precious race ratings so one can back tesst ideas
2 Can you send me the contenders spreadsheet as I have problems downloading it in Excel Format
A system builder is something we are considering at the moment. Please can you send me an email to support @ raceadvisor.co.uk so I know where you would like me to send the spreadsheet.
can you do an article on dutching and how to pick horse for it
cheers frank
I have made a note to write an article about finding ditching selections Frank.
“Kelly” staking (or divisions of Kelly stake) seems to be on the face of it a very simple procedure and easy to implement on an Excel trigger sheet, but the more you delve into it the more complex a concept it becomes. An in depth article would be interesting.
Have you read http://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/the-kelly-criterion-explained/ let me know if there are more details you would like to see.
How to determine which runners in a race are improving those that are static and those that are declining.
Hi James, I have put this on my list of articles to write and shall get to it asap.
Hi Michael,
I’m interested in trading horse races and would like to see an article on in-running prices. On BF Timeform I’ve noticed that nearly every horse trades lower in-running than it’s BSP and think that there’s an angle for profiting from from this.
Annoyingly, it doesn’t give you the highest in-running odds.
Here’s one from yesterday where only Russian Rave would not have presented a decent op.
http://form.horseracing.betfair.com/horse-racing/120512/Ascot-GB-Asc/1450
I’d like to read an article on the amount of ticks below the BSP we would/should look to lay at and possibly which races would be best for trading. My initial thoughts are flat sprints or 6 or 7 f with close finishes.
I think Proform holds some of this type of info but I’m not sure.
Cheers
Eamon
As a professional punter for the last 4 years I have come to the overwhelming conclusion that form does not work in the long run and becomes meaningless. I no longer do this and things have improved immensely. If form works then I would never lose but I do. So, this being the case, the way forward is to use mechanical systems like I do. Best decision I ever made.
How about working and exploring this avenue?
We could certainly explore that avenue. Would you be interested in seeing it explored from a methodology point of view (how to create mechanical systems) or some other way?
Yes. I created my own systems from many years of experience and purchasing them, testing, brain storming myself, just not giving up as I new there were ways to do this. The main thing is not to use form but say prices, stats, staking plans including recovery and so on. There is much to consider.
We can definitely look at exploring this avenue. Thank you for the suggestion.
I’d like to see up to date listings on NH and FLAT horses who need heavy, soft or good ground whichever is the case as a ready reference to aid betting, after suffering yet again in the spring autumn x-over from FLAT to NH and vice-versa!
Possibly a forum for members to share info/tips?
The cross-over is always difficult. I can definitely look at providing listings on runners which have a preference for a specific going condition, the list would be quite big so I would need to find a good way of displaying the information. It is something I shall look into. A forum is definitely a possibility as well. Thank you for the suggestions.
The biggest help of all would be to understand how to create an accurate odds line for ourselves.
This is a huge subject but it is a very good idea to start looking at it, I will make sure that we do this. Thank you.
Hi Michael One subject that does not get much coverage is pedigree handicapping could you write a feature showing the merits of selecting horses using this method and the mathematics involved.
Hi Richard, thank you for your comment. This is something we can look into and I have put it on our list of features to write about.
Hi Michael
I’m always impressed that your articles always strike a chord. The article in Betfan today ( about wasted time) was just what I was working towards so i greeted it with open arms.
We are all at different levels so it must be difficult for you to get the balance right.
I have been working on my Class ratings and they do give some guidance in creating contenders and winners. So my personal problem is 1. How to improve my ratings? and 2. How to decide when to back or not back my top rated? I seem to get the final decision wrong too many times
An example __
My frustration comes when my top rated didn’t have and supporting form ( apart from being top rated)
The 2nd top ( one point less) had it all – track- CD – top trainer top jock – on top form)
Of course I backed the 2nd rated which finished unplaced and my top rated scorched home at 6/1 ( Drifting on Betfair)
I will take on board the points raised in you time article but any further guidance on my too points would be most welcome.
Pete
Hi Peter, thank you for your comment, it’s great to hear from you. It sounds like you are missing out on a piece of the puzzle with your ratings and handicapping. This is the piece that 99% of people miss. How to wager.
Finding selections using your top-rated is absolutely fine. You’ve obviously spent a good deal of time developing your ratings and they are effective. What you need to do now is too look at how to bet them, i.e. what is the best way of wagering to make the maximum profit.
Start with just one situation, i.e. just when the top rated is x points higher, but ultimately you would have a different wagering strategy for a range of situations, when there are joint top-rated when the top three are significantly higher than the rest of the field, when there is an odds-on favourite not in your top three etc…
Look at backing, dutching, place betting, 20/80 splits all types of staking but not staking plans. That’s not what you’re looking for. You are looking for the best way to flat wager these selections to maximise profit. It works in the same way you develop ratings it’s just that most people don’t do it.
My small experience with horse racing, lets me believe, that instead of examining the horse we should pay more attention to the jockeys and trainers. The best jockeys and trainers have the best horses, that is what makes them statistically more successful. Another observation: when the trainer and jockey have the same surname, they are more likely to finish the race in the first three places. I would look for races with eight runners and hope the 4th placed horse will finish the race among the first three places. Nothing scientific here, just personal observation. What is your experience?
A great comment Axel, thank you for posting it. Jockey and Trainers is certainly an approach that can work well and I know of at least two pro bettors who use it. For me personally while I use that information, I prefer to focus on the horse instead. That is just preference however.