2016 was an interesting year for favourites on the All Weather. During last year, they only made a small loss of -1.20% (to Betfair SP after commission), while winning 32.83% of their races.
Betting them to place would have generated an even smaller loss of -0.38%, and given you 62.80% winning bets.
While we know, from having previously tried, it can be tough to generate a profit from favourites. This performance over the last year would indicate we should be able to!
And… I’m going to do it using a very simple approach…
Looking at the Days Since Last Won, I can see that there are some time ranges which make for a very severe loss. These are:
Less than four days, and between nine and ten days.
Eliminating all the horses who have won a race less than four days, or between nine and ten days, ago changes the picture considerably.
Now we’re getting a small increase in strike rate (33.88%) betting them to win, but significantly, we’ve increased the ROI to -0.29%.
Betting to place now yields 2.23%.
Wahooza! That wasn’t so difficult!
Continuing on the same theme…
We would want our horses to have had a good race recently, after all, if they haven’t, then they’re unlikely to be able to compete in the current race.
Looking at the DSLGR (Days Since Last Good Race), if we remove any horse that hasn’t had a good race in the last fourteen days, the figures for 2016 change to:
Win Bets Strike Rate 37.55% and ROI 3.96%
Place Bets Strike Rate 70.15% and ROI 6.41%
Pretty darn good, considering all we’ve done is:
* Look at All Weather racing only
* Only consider favourites (over joint-favourites)
* Remove any horse that has won in last four days, or between nine and ten days ago
* Has had a good race in the last fourteen days
A few words of warning before you rush out and start betting on these horses.
1) We’ve only taken into account 2016, going back over more years could change this.
2) The edge on these selections is small.
So what do you do?
You take these four basic steps and use them as a starting point. Applying some simple race analysis, that anybody can do, you can turn these selections into a steady stream of profits.
Need a tool to do that?
All the best,
Michael and the Race Advisor team
