Gentlemen, start your engines!
The start of the Formula 1 race season is soon to be upon us, with the first race taking place in Bahrain on the morning of March 12th. This time of year brings back many, many memories. Black and white footage of early Le Mans races and old Tony Curtis movies – well, at least that is what my dad says! And talking of old men, 2010 sees the return of Michael Schumacher, racing this year for Mercedes after he “retired” at the end of the 2006 season.
This seasons World Drivers Championship appears to be more open than ever, certainly in the betting, and new rule changes regarding refuelling within a race will lead to more exciting spectacles. The goal is that races will not be decided by machinery and strategy alone, but by skill and endurance. Those magnificent men and their racing machines have been testing their metal at the race tracks of Jerez, Barcelona and
Seville throughout February, with the general opinion that the Ferrari’s are more advanced in their preparation with McLaren and Mercedes still having work to do if they want to gain the extra 10ths of a second they need to make a decisive impact on the Constructors Championship. Relying on pre-season testing as a gauge for the first race of the season can be a misleading indicator of what’s actually going on, especially this year when final improvements will not be made until the cars line up in Bahrain.
A review of the market at www.oddschecker.com shows Fernando Alonso at the head of the market and as low as 2/1, but there is much disagreement amongst the leading firms about the balance of the market, and this has lead to some opportunities for “Surebets”. Surebets are when you can place bets on a series of possible outcomes and be certain of finishing in profit.
For example, on the chart below, you will see that Boyle Sports offers Lewis Hamilton @ 5/1, whereas on Betfair he is trading @ less than 9/2. By laying Hamilton £100 to £440 on Betfair and backing him £90 to £450 with the bookmaker, you will make a profit of £10 if he wins the championship and a profit of £5 (after Betfair commission) if he fails to.
You can extend this principle to include Massa and Button (who also fall into this betting position) and this creates a slightly more lucrative betting position:-
Betfair:- Lay Hamilton £100 to £440 / Lay Button £40 to £500 / Lay Massa £51 to £484
Bookmaker:- Back Hamilton £90 @ 5/1 / Back Button £37 @ 14/1 / Back Massa £45 @ 11/1
(Please ensure before you start backing/laying that all the odds are still available)
The possible outcomes are as follow:-
Lewis Hamilton wins the World Drivers Championship.
You have a liability on Betfair of £440, with £86 (after commission) to offset against your liability from the successful lays you have placed on Massa and Button. You have £540 to come back from the bookmaker after placing bets that came to £172 – A net gain of £14.00
Jenson Button winning the championship would net a return of £26.00 and a Felipe Massa win would net you £17.00.
If any other driver were to win the championship, you have net returns of £182.00 from Betfair which covers the cost of backing the three drivers, and leaves you with a £10.00 profit. (Betfair commission has been calculated at the maximum 5%. If you are a regular customer, your commission rate will be much lower and the returns greater).
If you have any questions regarding SureBets, please do not hesitate to contact us. We hope to bring you similar betting strategies throughout the year as the opportunities arise.