UKRN EARLY BIRD SELECTIONS

Welcome to the first in a new series of posts that I will be writing every other week. These posts are going to go through a race to show you how I go about finding selections. You can get a complete guide to finding your own selections here.

I will be focusing on Leicester for today’s selection and have one trainer that does well round here, so we will be noting his runners.

Trainers

The trainer is the first step in analysing a day’s racing and we need to make sure he meets certain criteria to make the shortlist.

They must have a strike rate of at least 17% from more than 50 runners and show a level stakes profit.

The trainer I will be looking at today is –

Nigel Twiston-Davies

As I only specialise in handicaps we’ll be looking at the above trainer’s handicap races only. This gives us the following shortlist of runners.

1. Seranwen
2. Valid Point

We now have two races and two horses on our shortlist and we can start to analyse not only the horses themselves but the races that they are in.

Statistics

Next we shortlist the horses further based on statistics from their previous runs. This can be done by looking at the Stats tab available at the bottom of the card on the Racing Post.

Starting with Seranwen we can see the following stats:

• Going – 0%
• Distance – 0%
• Course – 0%

This horse is now eliminated from our shortlist as he’s not shown any previous stats over three important elements.

Moving to Valid Point, his stats are:

• Going – 25%
• Distance – 38%
• Course – 67%

This horse looks to be strong and can now be considered a contender.

Contenders

We now just the one horse running for us today as follows:

3.55 Leicester – Valid Point

As you can see, once this process has been mastered, it’s a very quick way to finding strong contenders for the day’s racing.

Form

Now we want to look at the form. So far we’ve used a fairly structured analysis to create our shortlist, but now comes the subjective part and for those that can read the form… this will test your skills!

Once we’ve done this stage the final part is to price up the race to determine whether we’re getting any value from our bet.

I will cover this element of the race in another edition of the UKRN Early Bird so that you can just focus on shortlisting today and not get information overload.

Selections

3.55 Leicester – Valid Point looked to be running a decent enough race last time out when he was badly hampered and unseated his rider. I’m not sure he would have won the race but completed enough of it to show that he should improve on that run. He likes it around here having won over this course and distance. He looks well treated in this company and I’ve priced him up as a 5/1 shot.

Members of UKRN were given Valid Point yesterday evening at 8/1 and at the time of writing this there has been some niggles at him in the market and I expect him to go off shorter.

If you’d like to get my selections every day then you can join UKRN here.

As always, any questions, then let me know in the comments section below. I will be on holiday next week but will return with a look at a day’s racing and also cover the reading of form and pricing up of a race as well.

Until then, have a great week and happy punting!