Trainer Stats – July Meeting

The Newmarket July Festival meeting sponsored by Moet & Chandon is real Champagne event and one of the Summer Flat Racing season’s highlights. More relaxed than Royal Ascot with a garden party atmosphere, it’s about style, Panama hats, strawberries and top class racing what more can you ask for! Well hopefully some warm sunshine although in the last couple of years we have seen plenty of rain about at the meeting.

There are 7 top-class races on the card each day. The 2015 Newmarket July Festival kicks off with Ladies Day on Thursday, with the feature race being the Group 2 Princess Of Wales Stakes over 1m 4f, followed by Gentleman’s Day on the Friday, the highlight of that days card is the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes over 1m for fillies and mares. On the Saturday we have the Group 1 July Cup over 6f and the latest running of the historic 7f Bunbury Cup, sponsored by Bet365.

Punters approach these big summer festivals in different ways but for me I like to use a separate betting bank for my bets compared to my normal day to day betting. I am usually looking for value in my bets but at the festivals I am on the lookout for winners at good prices so it’s a slightly different approach.

When looking for selections most punters will either do some ‘old school’ formbook analysis or they will use ratings to find potential winners. Others will look at big race trends to see what horses have the right profile to win a particular race. The good thing about the latter approach is that many of the big races at the July meeting do lend themselves to such an approach of winner finding. I tend to use a combination of form book analysis, ratings and look at race trends in combination with trainer records at a particular Festival when shortlisting races.

The purpose of this short article is to look at the latter and give you a few trainers that have a good record with their well fancied horses at Newmarket’s July meeting. Hopefully we can get a few winners from our select bunch of trainers this year.

I tend to concentrate my betting on handicaps and most of the trainers below are worth following in handicaps only but I will start by looking at one trainer who does well in maiden races:

Trainers to Watch

Saeed Bin Suroor – Maiden runners 12/1 & under

Wins: 4

Bets: 9

SR: 44.44%

Profit: +6

SP A/E: 1.66

The Godolphin operation tends to introduce some nice maidens at the meeting as witnessed by the excellent strike rate for the trainer. Its early days for the other half of the Godolphin training outfit Charlie Appleby but it may also pay to keep an eye on any maidens that he runs too

Moving onto handicaps below are a group of trainers whose runners are always worth a second look when you are looking for contenders for a race. I have set the following criteria: handicaps only, Newmarket July meeting since 2010 and well fancied 12/1 & under in the betting.

Trainers with handicappers 12/1 & under

Richard Fahey

Wins: 4

Bets: 8

SR: 50%

Profit: +32.25

SP A/E: 3.48

Notes – Any Richard Fahey handicapper looks worth a second look when strong in the market

Mark Johnston

Wins: 5

Bets: 17

SR: 29.41%

Profit: +23

SP A/E: 1.98

Notes – Trainer comes into the meeting in great form and interesting to note stable jockey Joe Fanning is 3-9 on the above.

Ed Walker

Wins: 2

Bets: 3

SR: 66.67%

Profit: +4.25

SP A/E: 2.86

Notes – Trainer has the well fancied and inform Bushcraft entered in Saturdays’ Bunbury Cup.

Luca Cumani

Wins: 2

Bets: 5

SR: 40%

Profit: +9

SP A/E: 1.79

A couple of other trainers whose handicappers are worth keeping on side at the meeting are:

Roger Charlton – 1 win/2 bets

Sir Mark Prescott – 1 win/2 bets

Paul Cole – 2 wins/2 bets (handicap nursery only)

The sample sizes are small, I realise that, but if used inconjunction with other methods can help you shortlist potential bets this week and maybe even identify a nice priced winner or two.

In conclusion: Northern trainers Richard Fahey and Mark Johnston like to ready a handicapper or two for this meeting. On the maiden front its worth noting any Godolphin trained runners, particularly from the Saeed Bin Suroor yard.

John Burke

I have a MA in International Politics and having spent a number of years working in political campaigning but I eventually I realised that politics was not the world where I wanted to work I had been interested in horse racing since the late 1980s but in the early years I was merely just betting and watching racing like most people as a bit of fun and a hobby, then the hobby becomes a passion and that’s what happened to me with horse racing. I soon realised that to make money from my hobby I had to learn as much as I could about the sport and betting in general. The whole process took time but after a number of successful years of betting, I decided in 2011 to take the plunge, gave up my full time day job and decided to bet on horse racing as a part time business and I haven’t looked back since. I like to specialise in the better class of races and I love to solve the puzzles posed by big field handicaps the latter races often provide punters with great value betting opportunities. Whilst most of my time is spent reviewing previous races I like to keep things as simple as possible as even the biggest field handicaps can usually be pruned down to half a dozen strong contenders with the right sort of approach.
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