Advice

Top Horse Racing Gambling Systems – Winning Favourites

Guest post written by Paul Micelli

Irrespective of whether a gambler is placing wagers on a casual basis or at a more serious level, betting systems have always been a source of debate and controversy. Indeed, the gambling world still remains divided over the true value of using systems to pick winners in horse racing events and for much of the time, a complex formula for success is little more than a process of elimination that most punters encounter without even realising it.

The ‘Winning Favourites’ System

Why do people insist on betting on favourites? Statistically, only 30% of favourites actually go on to win a race so what makes your selection different to the remaining 70% who inevitably fail to deliver once an event actually starts? Perhaps the more important question to ask is “what do the 30% of winning favourites actually have in common and how do I pick them out?”

Once again, on a statistical level, many favourites who have won previously go on to do so again in their next race. Previous form always remains as a notable indicator of potential results and caution should always be applied if race favourites haven’t finished in top three positions in their previous race. These factors should always be factored in to bets where favourites are being supported.

Horses have a tendency to perform at their best when they are regularly raced. The concept of supporting a horse while it’s legs are still working well has been the mainstay of many sports betting enthusiasts over the years and if a potential selection is named as favourite but hasn’t run in the previous 60 days, erring on the side of caution is highly advisable.

If a favourite can meet the criteria discussed above, the potential of being amongst the 30% of winners is significantly increased. However, a series of relevant questions must also be asked before a wager can be placed in compete confidence:

  • Although the horse appears attractive, is it being ridden by a leading jockey and trained in an in-form yard?

  • Using the Racing Post as a guide, has the selection been napped by one or more reputable tipsters?

  • Big fields often become the graveyard of potential winners. Are there less than twelve runners in the race?

  • Take a look at the rest of the field. Do the horses competing against your selection fail to meet the qualities needed to win the race?

  • Does the race look safe from any shock outcomes? Drastic changes in the going and maiden horses with no form to study are two major causes of potential upsets

If punters can answer all the questions above positively, the selection has a highly significant chance of being part of that elusive 30% and a wager stands a much better chance of yielding a return. Successful gamblers understand that the need to exercise discipline when making selections can be the difference between establishing long-term profits and blowing their bankrolls on the 70% of beaten favourites that many of us will already be familiar with.

Michael Wilding

Michael started the Race Advisor in 2009 to help bettors become long-term profitable. After writing hundreds of articles I started to build software that contained my personal ratings. The Race Advisor has more factors for UK horse racing than any other site, and we pride ourselves on creating tools and strategies that are unique, and allow you to make a long-term profit without the need for tipsters. You can also check out my personal blog or my personal Instagram account.

4 Comments

  1. Hi

    I detest any contribution from any person which mention vaque comments

    avoid tricky races —–horse out of form——must be a top jockey and trainer
    ”””’the going must suit the horse and so on and so forth
    THESE STATEMENTS ARE MEANINGLESS.

    There must be a mentioned range of meaningful figures and info in each range

    What is tall—–what is poverty —–who is fat —–who is short
    and so I can fill a library ??????

    I just wish stupid statements can stay in the mind of the mindless writer

    Steve

    1. I think it is because a lot of the public believes that the horse which wins the most often will be the one that they earn the most money from. The concept of value can be hard to understand.

  2. I think the reason some punters back favourites is they lack the ability or, perhaps confidence, to pick their own horses. .

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