As I was walking the dog at 6.30am this morning, I was considering the various things I could write about in the daily newsletter.
I had a bunch of ideas, but a conversation with a friend yesterday had me thinking about trainers.
Personally, I don’t use trainers much in my analysis, but I know a lot of people who do. Including most of the RA team members!
So why do they use them, and why don’t I?
The reason I don’t use them is nothing to do with not being able to make a profit from them. Quite the opposite in fact. It’s because I like to build automated approaches.
That means I develop a strategy, which can be completely automated, and make a small ROI on it.
When you work like that, trainers pose a problem, because we only have limited information about them.
When you’re looking for a way to quickly reduce the number of contenders in a field, and then go and take a more detailed look yourself… trainers can be the golden ticket.
One of the races it highlights is Catterick at 14:30…
TRAINER: B Ellison
TRAINER STRIKE RATE: 20.38%
JOCKEY: Megan Carberry
JOCKEY STRIKE RATE: 20%
S/R FOR THIS GOING: 0%
S/R FOR THIS DISTANCE: 100%
S/R FOR THIS COURSE: 100%
Using trainer and jockey stats, we’ve narrowed down the seven-runner field to just one possible selection.
Our job now is to determine whether there’s any serious competition to this selection.
You can do this using any kind of information. Personally, I like to take the quickest route and use Profit Recall, which says that Italian Riveria could be a threat.
Now, you could delve deeper into these two or, based on the odds, you could bet Nietzsche to win and Italian Riveria to place using a dutch bet. Currently, Nietzsche is 2.77 to win and Italian Riveria is 2.88 to place.
Dutching these selections would generate a £39 profit to £100 stake, should Nietzsche win or Italian Riveria place.
All the best,
Michael and the Race Advisor team
P.P.S. I’ve been thinking about recording a day’s action using Profit Recall. Is that something you’d be interested in seeing? Hit the reply button and let me know.