Welcome to the Weekly Profit Puller. This is where I’m going to look at various products or services and delve a little deeper into how they work and how best to use them.
Today we are focusing on the UKRN Early Bird. This service has been running for 17 months now and has made over 120 points profit in that time to 1 unit stakes. Starting its analysis with trainer stats today we look at how this is done and why today’s selection has been chosen.
Looking through each day’s race cards the service focuses on how many runners and winners a trainer’s had at each course. These runners are then shortlisted using statistics that highlight trainers who’ve historically done well at the track.
Today’s selection from the UKRN Early Bird is trained by Jamie Osborne. This trainer has had 256 runners and won with 45 of them. This means he has a 18% strike rate, which is good SR to have.
So, in the first part of analysis they’ve found a successful trainer that does well at the track. Next they need to go through this trainers runners for the day.
Looking at the cards, Osborne has just one runner. Looking through the form, we’re wanting to find a horse that will improve in today’s conditions. His runner, Hardy Black, fits the bill and runs in the 5.45 at Wolverhampton.
Here’s what we would consider to be good in this horse’s form –
“Hardy Black comes into handicap company for the first time today and although running off top weight he looks well treated to me off a mark of 70 having won well over this course and distance last time out. He hasn’t run since January which would usually make one hesitant but as with these cases it’s best to observe the market and there’s money coming for him left right and centre which is always key. He’s still value at the current 4/1 and this won’t last long. ”
The next step is to look through the race card and price up each horse to create our own oddsline or book.
This is a complicated process and is done for UKRN Early Bird by Eddie who’s been pricing up races for over five years.
Once the oddsline has been created, as long as the horse has larger odds in the market than on the oddsline it becomes a selection. These over-priced horses are then provided to the UKRN Early Bird members.
While there are losing streaks, these selections will always make a long-term profit because there is value in the odds. This value can be seen as over 75% of all the selections get gambled on throughout the day and go off at an SP significantly lower than the early odds available.