Welcome to the Weekly Profit Puller. This is where I’m going to look at various products, services or methods and delve a little deeper into how they work and how best to use them.
This week I’m going to look at a way to find contenders quickly and efficiently using stats that are readily available to everyone for free.
First up then you need to head over t0 the Racing Post website and once you have the cards loaded up click on the statistics tab that is displayed directly below the name of the meeting. I have shown this in the screenshot below…
< Once we've clicked on this you'll be taken to a page that looks like the one below and we need to highlight all the trainers that have a strike rate of 17% or higher with a level stakes profit. You'll see this in the image below...
As you can see Noel Quinlan is successful at this track. He will be a trainer that is worth investigating further. The reason that we select trainers with high strike rates with a level stakes profit is because had we followed them blindly we would have made a profit to SP. Of course this doesn’t mean that history will be repeated, however by finding a trainer that has done well before we can assume that they will continue and by being selective with other stats we can find a strong contender.
Next up then if you click on the trainers name you’ll be taken to screen like the one below…
You will need to click on the Entries tab to be shown what runners he has running today.
This will take us to a page that looks like this…
You will see what runners that trainer has running that day and this case Noel Quinlan only has the one runner that goes in the 7.00 at Redcar. By clicking on the time of the race we will be taken to the card and this is where you can carry out further research to see if this is a strong contender.
Once you have the card open you’ll need to scroll down to the bottom and find the Stats tab which I’ve highlighted in the screenshot below…
Once you have clicked on this we need to look for several things to make sure that this horse is likely to perform well today. We will be looking at the jockey’s strike rate and level stakes profit and also how the horse has performed in today’s conditions.
We treat the jockey the same as the trainer and will be looking for a strike rate of over 17%. In today’s example you’ll see that Pat Cosgrove rides for Noel Quinlan on board Golden Spear. You’ll see below I’ve highlighted his stats…
So from this we can see that Pat Cosgrove is not only in great form at the moment (this is shown in the left hand column) but he’s done well over the track in the last 5 seasons (this is shown in the column on the right.)
So we now have two strong stats that show us the trainer does well here and also that the jockey does well. All that’s left is to check out the horse Golden Spear and see if he’s performed well in today’s conditions.
I’ve highlighted the stats found on the horse which can be seen in the screenshot below…
So you can see from the screenshot above that the horse has won at both the distance and the course. The only thing that lets it down is the going. We now have four out of five stats that are a positive and you have found a quick and efficient way of finding strong contenders for the day’s racing.
Next jot this horse down and go through the rest of the cards for the day. Once you have a list of contenders you can go through their form as further analysis to see if they are worth backing.
One of the areas I recommend looking at is the class it’s running in, look deeper into the going, in Golden Spear’s case, and assess the market for clues as to it’s chances. I usually stick to the top three in the betting as they have a very high strike rate.
So, to re-cap…
- Find trainers that have a strike rate of 17% or higher and a level stakes profit
- Find those trainers horses and make sure that the jockey is also showing a high strike rate recently and at the course
- Check to see the horse has at least performed well in two out of three of either the going, distance or course
- Finally look into the form a little deeper and make sure they are strong in the market
- Paper trade this method until you are happy at how it works
That’s it for this week’s Profit Puller and I will be back next week with a look at some other methods or services and how best to use them.