In this weeks Profit Puller I thought I’d run through how you can use the Daily Stat Pack and how by doing a little extra work, you can sort the wheat from the chaff and find value amongst the selections.
The original idea behind the stat pack was to find horses quickly that had proven themselves over at least two or three important factors of course, distance and going. A horse that had proven to be able to win in today’s conditions in a nutshell. Combining this with the trainers and jockeys strike rate made for a powerful stat based selection.
Can we profit from this simple approach though? Quiet simply yes!
We need to do a little extra work though before diving in and betting the shortlist provided for us here – The Daily Stat Pack
It’s all very well arriving at a selection as shown in the above link but we need to check out its competition and make a decision as to whether the horse can be competitive in this class.
So let’s look at an example. Today we have a few races but the 2.15 Wetherby showed the following statistics –
HORSE: Bold Henry
TRAINER: P Hobbs
TRAINER STRIKE RATE: 21.43%
JOCKEY: A P McCoy
JOCKEY STRIKE RATE: 36.61%
S/R FOR THIS GOING: 0%
S/R FOR THIS DISTANCE: 28%
S/R FOR THIS COURSE: 0%
So upon reviewing the stats we need to breakdown them a little more to help us understand how the horse has gained these percentages.
Most notably Bold Henry has a strong strike rate over this distance. Combining this with the trainer and jockey’s strike rates it looks to have a good chance. However the ground looks to be a concern. However look at the following that I wrote last night for the Early Bird Service.
Bold Henry disappointed last time out but was badly hampered in running and it seemed to put him off his stride. Going back to his previous run he won impressively from a large field. He seems to relish softer ground and although tomorrow’s meeting is declared as Good to Soft I live fairly close to the course and it’s coming down sideways as I write this and I can well imagine it going off soft tomorrow. I think the market is reflecting the current ground and will shorten when the going is possibly changed. On that basis I will be going in for a win bet at the current 5/1.
Now the whole process above took me no longer than 3 minutes to run through. My point is that I was able to strike my bet knowing that I’d made an informed selection. Stats are based on a logical process that all selection processes should be but it’s even more important to understand the logic behind them and not back anything blind.
Have a great weekend and catch you next week.
Eddie Lloyd
