In this weeks Profit Puller I thought I’d run through how you can use the Daily Stat Pack and how by doing a little extra work, you can sort the wheat from the chaff and find value amongst the selections.
The original idea behind the stat pack was to find horses quickly that had proven themselves over at least two of the three important factors of course, distance and going. A horse that had proven to be able to win in today’s conditions in a nutshell. Combining this with the trainers and jockeys strike rate made for a powerful stat based selection.
Can we profit from this simple approach though? Quiet simply yes!
We need to do a little extra work though before diving in and betting the shortlist provided for us here – The Daily Stat Pack
It’s all very well arriving at a selection as shown in the above link but we need to check out its competition and make a decision as to whether the horse can be competitive in this class.
So let’s look at an example. On Tuesday of this week the Stat Pack highlighted Dunraven Storm as a qualifier for the 3.10 at Exeter and showed the following statistics –
HORSE: Dunraven Storm
TRAINER: P Hobbs
TRAINER STRIKE RATE: 18.31%
JOCKEY: R Johnson
JOCKEY STRIKE RATE: 22.73%
S/R FOR THIS GOING: 0%
S/R FOR THIS DISTANCE: 28%
S/R FOR THIS COURSE: 100%
So upon reviewing the stats we need to breakdown them a little more to help us understand how the horse has gained these percentages.
Dunraven Storm had raced twice before at Exeter and won on both occasions. He’d also raced over this distance (within a couple of yards) 6 times and won twice which were both at the Exeter track. So the strike rate was actually slightly higher at 33% (something that I’m looking into 😉 ). So things are looking good at the moment for the selection.
However we need to look at the negatives and decide whether these could affect the horse’s performance. He was showing 0% for the going which is always a concern, however upon closer inspection we could see that he’d come close on numerous occasions on this type of ground so no concerns there. Lastly it was his first appearance chasing. This again caused no concern as although he’d been unproven over this code his performance over hurdles was outstanding and having won many better races than this he looked to be a good bet.
Now the whole process above took me no longer than 3 minutes to run through and I found the winner. Of course this doesn’t happen all the time otherwise I’d be sat on a yacht somewhere! My point is that I was able to strike my bet knowing that I’d made an informed selection. Stats are based on a logical process that all selection processes should be but it’s even more important to understand the logic behind them and not back anything blind.
Next week I’ll be using the same method but by applying some maths and a way of rating the other horses in the race I’ll be creating a tissue so that we can add the additional power of finding value in our selection.
Have a great weekend and catch you next week.