It’s the first day of the Cheltenham Festival 2014 and the rest of the week is guaranteed to be filled with edge-of-the-seat excitement. There is fierce competition every day and we have gone through the stats and key trends in detail for each of the fourteen major races.
Every day we will be posting the stats, key trends and analysis for one of the races here. But, you can…
Get an analysis of all fourteen major races here for just £7.
The race that we are going to be looking into on the blog today is the Supreme Novices Hurdle which is being run at 13:30.
Traditionally this is the curtain raiser for the festival, and known for creating the famous Cheltenham roar. The opening race is represented this year by some of the big stables.
First of all let’s take a look at the key trends and past stats for this race.
Past Winners
Key Trends
- 10/10 winners have won at least 50% of their hurdle starts
- 10/10 winners have raced in the last 52 days
- 8/10 winners won last time out
- 7/10 winners previously contested a graded race (5 won and 2 placed)
At the time of writing the current entries in this race are:
It’s important to note that there has only been one winning favourite, and that was 10 years ago in 2004, so the market seems to get this one slightly wrong.
If using the price solely as a guide, we’d be looking for a double figure price. The battle for top spot looks to be between Vatour and Irving, and this will probably be clear on the day.
The past 10 years however, would have us believe we’d be better off opposing the favourite. One that looks to be value would be Wicklow Brave for Willie Mullins. He only falls short on one of the trends and has a string of 1’s beside his form. It took him a while to settle down after a slow pace was set on his latest outing at Punchestown, but got the job done. He should prefer a stronger pace in this race and at his current position in the market looks to be about right for this opening race of Cheltenham 2014.
Let us know who you’re going to be betting in this race by leaving a comment below.
And, there are another two major races today in the Racing Post Arkle and the Festival Handicap Chase. So…
I shall be backing Western Boy whoo fulfils 2 of the stats, but i also have a sneaking feeling for a big outsider in Un Ace.
Good luck Chris
I shall be backing Western Boy who fulfils 2 of the stats, but i also have a sneaking feeling for a big outsider in Un Ace.
Hi, I will be backing A P McCoy on Gilgamboa
The Liquidator. e.w.
josses hill e.w for me
I’ve narrowed it down to The Liquidator, with Irving being the danger, so am pleased to see they are in your trends Michael. I will be going for The Liquidator as he is very good value IMO.
Thanks Wendy. Good luck on the liquidator
Liquidator EW for me
Valseur Lido & Wicklow Brave for me.
Cheers Micheal,i will be doing liquidater e/w 5 places on will hill,owner trainer and jockey in profit on this horse
Thanks Jules. Good luck on Liquidator.