Guest article written by Paul Micelli
With the 2010 World Cup in South Africa just a couple of months away, sports betting enthusiasts will be looking to cash in on the most prestigious soccer tournament in the universe. This simple mathematical betting strategy reaped rewards in the 2006 competition and can be easily utilised during the forthcoming 2010 competition.
In 2006, there were 48 games played during the group stages of the tournament with a further 15 games played on a knockout basis. Advanced statistical information became available as the tournament progressed and many sports betting enthusiasts were surprised to see the total goal spread for the final open at 1.5. This baseline betting figure was seized upon by many bettors who used some simple mathematical analysis to cash in.
In the group stages of the completion, a total of 117 goals were scored in 48 games at an average of 2.44 goals per match. As the tournament progressed, the first 14 knockout games produced 21 goals inside the first ninety minutes to average out at 1.5 goals per match. This second figure appeared to be the reason why many bookmakers set the goal spread for the World Cup final at 1.5 goals.
However, the two teams taking part in the final had much better goal averages compared to the spread figure and the likelihood of both teams producing more than 1.5 goals inside the first 90 minutes was always particularly good.
On their way to the final, France had scored a total of eight goals in their opening six matches while Italy had actually managed to score nine goals in their first six games (not including the two additional goals scored against Germany in extra time during the semi-finals).
Simple mathematics based on average goals scored per game showed that the French were scoring 1.34 goals per game on average inside ninety minutes while the Italians were actually surpassing that figure and totalling an average of 1.5 goals per game. When these two individual averages are added together, the two sides were potentially capable of scoring 2.84 goals in a game. In the event, the World Cup final finished in a 1-1 draw after ninety minutes with no subsequent goals being added in stoppage time. The Italians eventually went on to win the tournament on penalties. The game produced significant profits for those betting above the 1.5 total goal spread while casual punters also benefited from a selection of correct score forecasts and goals per game bets.
The 2010 World Cup will doubtlessly throw up further opportunities to profit using one of the most basic mathematical systems in the book. Although the system relies on sports betting enthusiasts keeping a keen eye if betting on the spread, the potential for regular profits on a total number of goals scored basis is unmistakable.
Remember to study teams based on performance throughout the entire tournament and not just the knockout stages of the competition. Because betting rules are applied to score lines at the end of ninety minutes play, any goals scored during extra time should not be incorporated into your figures.