Guest article written by Paul Micelli
While many sports betting enthusiasts continue to make a respectable profit from laying horses, the world of greyhound racing continues to be clouded by uncertainty and inexperience. The utilisation of successful horse racing systems have worked for many years on the UK’s main betting exchanges but can profits actually be gleaned from greyhound racing as well?
This particular system uses Betfair as a tool for one of the most profitable greyhound racing systems on the market. One of the greatest aspects of greyhound racing is that statistical data is easy to gather. Even a basic race card can carry a wealth of useful information and this can be used alongside a disciplined attitude and a few basic rules to help achieve worthwhile profits.
This particular system follows a logical path to build belief. If we look at football betting, most sports betting enthusiasts will make a selection based on the team that is likely to score more goals. By following a natural sequence of progression we can safely assume that the fastest greyhound in a race will be the most likely to go past the line in first place. As obvious as this information may seem it still manages to cause amazement that so many regular punters try to mist the waters of clarity by opting for favourite trap numbers or results from the previous race instead of using solid statistical information.
The system itself is utter simplicity and the information required can be gathered from race cards that are produced daily on internet betting sites including Betfair. By consulting the race card, it is easy to decipher the times that a greyhound ran to during previous races. Just as importantly, it becomes easier to pick out greyhounds that haven’t produced competitive times in recent events.
It is also important to look at the grade of the race in question and whether the greyhounds involved in the race are running to the same level. If a greyhound is moving up to a higher grade, the system will not work and that particular selection should be ignored. Once a series of candidates have been found, the simplicity of the system can be advanced by making it more applicable to a scientific strategy. In this instance, the system can be made more intricate by working out the average race times of individual greyhounds over the last 3 or 4 outings.
By doing this, we can obtain a more detailed picture of each greyhound involved in a race and their average potential in the grade that they are racing in. Because dog racing is full of uncertain factors such as barging, biting and distractions, it is better to build a more consistent picture of performance.
Once average times for each greyhound have been established, the next step is to make a final selection and you will want to use a bookmaker for this as the betting market at Betfair does not have enough liquidity to show an accurate odds-line for the runners. However Betfair can be ideal for your bets because of the better odds that are often available on the exchange market. By avoiding slower dogs with higher prices, most runners in a race can be easily eliminated to leave just one or two outstanding candidates.
*Please note that any reviews or advice are the opinons of the authors and not the opinions of Race Advisor and anybody associated with it. All gambling is a risk and the Race Advisor and associates accepts no responsibility for any losses that may occur.
What is this system called and where can I get it?
The outlines of the system are above and were written by one of our authors, if you are interested in having this developed further then let me know and I shall get in touch with him and see if he will write a further piece on it.
If you back greyhounds what about the place market on betfair? The number of times a fav gets beat on the nod. Also you can have succsess backing outsiders as some dog has to be second. If the prices are big enough you can dutch. With place betting you get an extra chance to win
Hi Paul
sorry that i am half asleep writeing this but if only it was so easy!!
if all the tracks were straight you would have a good point on speed i do the greyhounds some times and dount have a favorite trap number when i actuly look at the race as i much prefer to look for value
but i think we all know that time isnt the only factor,as you have fast trapers ,slow trapers,wide runners and inside rail runners and then they are all hurtling around a bend this all adds up to knocking your fastest dogs out the race as said above it would be diffrent if tracks were straight but then every one would be on them so although the fastest dog should win other things gets in its way
but whats the cost of this system?
with regards
glen
Thanks for the comments Glen. This isn’t a system for sale but was a concept to give some food for thought to building your own. Maybe you can suggest one in the new forum which will be online from tomorrow?
Hi to the advisor glen:here
have had a look at the new forum but not sure how to leave a comment i tryed the other night their was no clear button to press to leave comment after i had ritten
somthing i am sure i missted it please inform
regards
glen
I created an excel worksheet that copied every betfair racecard and anylised the best times, average times,etc etc…basically every possibility of finding the magic formula from breaks and consistency to well, you name it and this worksheet would test everything in the betfair racecards. and the conclusion was…absolutely nothing.
greyhounds have a slight bias towards the odds offered and thats about it. gambling of any kind is against the punter..full stop.
challenge me if you want but i will prove you wrong.
Tom would you consider sharing that worksheet? How many weeks of data did you get?
You Cannot win on greyhounds full stop!!! It is fixed beyond any realms you can think of.
Not exercising dogs….mars bars before races….carnation milk…..vasaline on eyes…
Dont waste your time with stats…if you can get info and then lay em, good luck to you, but then they still have to get round the first bend!!!! or not!!
Hi, winning at greyhound racing is a bit of a lottery but not impossable.
When i lived in the smoke i use to go racing every week at Catford & Wembley.
I used to do my own speed rating and then go to the track to see if any looked fit on the night. My wife used to tell me the who looked the best, its coat, its composer & the way it walked.
If my wife could do it I am sure most people could if they go to the dogs regularly, she had a bit of advantage as see worked with animals before she met me.
Barry
Fergo
if all this stuff goes on and you know about it then i’m sure it must be being cleaned
up just like with the horses i’m sure thats a lot cleaner now than it was but having said
that i would emagen this sort of thing would be amed at the probble fav so wouldnt affect
me,but still at the end of the day a dog will win and just like the horses if you do them often enough follow a sensable method and listen to your inner instints then you could turn a profit as least your not dealing with 7+ runner and not least the prices once theirs a strong favorite are quite good when takeing into ccount the small fields
i quite often go in the bookies and will for no reason invest a pound on trap 4 when ite around 7/2 4/1 and been quite lucky with that
regards
glen
Glen,
My uncle was a famous greyhound trainer, won english derby, irish derby, brought 70, yes 70 dogs to miami in the 60s…….when he died he left 40k in debts to be paid!!! If he could not make it pay, How are the punters in betting shops going to?
If you ever go dog racing in Ireland, Shelbourne or Dundalk, you will see dogs open at 4/7 and locals will tell you it has no chance!!!! It will drift to 2/1……the fear the local trainers so much….thats the sort of turnaround to expect, Remember, like aw horse racing the owners and trainers are running for peanuts!! How can you keep a dog in training + vets fees and depend on a dog winning a £20 race, you have to ruff the form and fool the stadium, even then, the dog can be unlucky and you have to start all over again!!!
If you think any of the sports are getting cleaner, look at cricket and snooker? Its only a matter of time before all theose very very odd football results will be exposed!! Its just the way things are these days……yes bet if you want….but be aware of it.
Only way to make a few is green up on ggs or dutch back to lay…..or buy a horse for £800 run it class 6 aw, run it 4-5 times a month, just hold up in the rear, take it as wide as you can…….get on a few small lays each time it runs (£200 max) and have a nice holiday!!!
the only trouble with laying horses is if a horse is expected to lose you will lucky to make twenty pounds for your two hundred wereby if you found a favourite that is expected to lose you can then make a good living.
Very true. As with all successful betting the key is to find the value so the horse that you know will win less than it is expected to.
you cannot win CONSISTENLEY on bags thats why it is called bookmakers afternoon greyhound service, also look on the betting overound , the prices offer no value. until 2 yrs ago i used too be a greyhound owner and had dogs that made derby finals at milton keynes and henlow, i also raced my dogs at bristol, catford,wembley ,milton keynes,henlow and peterboro , i left the sport because racing managers could stich u up for eg putting a fast starter on your inside 2 stop u getting a run and get hit, they have no respect for your dog but i have so i retired him to stop him getting beaten up.there are certain things u can do ie hall green when wet percentage call is to eliminate trap 4,5,6 , nottingham play trap1 on a progressive staking plan , monmore play traps 2 3 4. oxford when wet play traps 1,2,3.cheers richard
Jimbo,
Lets say a 12 runner race grade A6 AW…….4 other teams are doing the same with their ggs…..you have 4 horses you know are not trying…its called share to profit!!
You get to hear of others doing the same but on the NORMAL???? tracks…..you soon have a long list of ggs running day in day out that are NOT trying!!! Jocks are ok, they get the fee and a bung!! They know the horse is useless and a minimum effort is fine…its in the form book the horse is poor!! just run it on the wrong ground, wrong distance..keep upping and downing it…..happens every day 24/7.
Thats what you are up against….if you do not have an edge, or use the exchanges, you are 5 years behind….the bookies pay good money to have horses removed from 17 runner hcaps on a sat morning….watch the morning line and watch the non runners come flying in as horses shorten on the exchanges….then watch 1 hr before race as another copps out….funny eh?
Fergo
@Fergo
That sounds like a system, there!
Ken,
Yep…sure is….wish I knew them!!! here is a trick the major bookies play most Saturdays……for all the poor dopes that use betting shops
Odds compliers are paid megger bucks to price up races right? So they put a gg at 9/4 in racing papers!!! about 10.30am when they know the dopes are in the shops…..they cut the horse to 2/1……half an hour later….7/4….punters thinks its a gambel and back or include it in accas…..low and behold when the book opens for the race its back to 9/4…….its called phising and they make mega bucks!
Cruel…maybe…..cheating….er yep? I know mugs who think a union jack is a low stake value bet????? YOU CAN HAVE 5 WINNERS…YEP, 5 WINNERS AND NOT GET PAID OUT!!!
Utter madness
Those are the ones to lay then. Especially when the odds get lower
There is no sure system. If punters won all the time it would put the bookies out of business. What ever your sport Football, Horses or BAGS there as always been allegations of fixing behind the scenes. It doesn’t really matter because you are betting on the out come and it’s a gamble. It’s simple really bet what you can afford to loose and look for something that gives you the edge over the bookie. If you loose get over it and try again. Football prices are crap because bookies know people are arbitrage betting especially now we are using computers. At least with sport betting you are in with a chance. On line casinos just rob punters.
The BAGS meetings are a rip off. A dog has a one in six chance of winning yet the biggest price you will find in these races is 5-1 with everything else shorter.
With such a huge edge there is no need to fix races or nobble dogs.
Incidently, a very large study was done on greyhound systems by an American university mathematics department. The best system they found (after analysing over one hundred thousand races) is to back the trap that won the previous race.
It was they found only the system which made the smallest loss.
I am looking at laying greyhounds. The trouble is with the prices. The favourites dont always come in but if you lay and 4 dogs win out of 12 races between 2/1 and 3/1 that can wipe out your profit. You have to figure out a few filters such as avoiding downgrades in class. For those that like to back I don’t know why people look at the place market on greyhounds. You back a greyhound to place you have an extra chance to win. The number of times you see a favourite beaten on the nod. Also if people backed outsiders in the place market they can have some luck as some dog has to be second. If they outlawed traditional bookies and made it all exchange betting so the bookie makes a percentage on the pot like the old card schools it would stop a lot of fixing as bookies would profit if dogs win or loose