(SPDFIGLrAdj) HORSE RACING RATINGS: Discover How To Make +534 Units Profit
Get An Edge Of 8% By The End Of This Post!
Horse racing ratings are an integral part of finding a profit from betting on the horses.
With more ratings for every horse than any other provider in the UK, we began a public analysis of each one in 2020, and are adding to them regularly.
You can see all the ratings in the series here.
Some will perform well and make insane horse racing profits on their own, others will not perform as well but will indicate strong horses and work excellently when combined with other factors.
In this post we’re going to look at the SPDFGILrAdj horse racing rating.
It’s quite a mouthful, but there is logic behind the crazy name. This speed rating is the speed figure (SPDFIG) from the horses last race (Lr), and it’s adjusted (Adj) for today’s weight.
There are raw ratings, rank and difference from top versions of this rating.
When this rating is zero, which it will almost never be, the horse is perfectly weighted today based on its performance from the last race. When it’s negative, it’s carrying too much weight, and when it’s positive it’s not carrying enough weight.
Before we dig in and see how it performs, let’s see…
WHAT HORSE RACING RATINGS STATS MEAN
We use a few pieces of information that help us to understand the performance of horse race ratings. Below you will find an explanation of these for reference.
SELECTIONS
The number of selections that have been found
PROFIT
The profit, or loss, of the selections to Betfair SP with a 2% commission. Where Betfair SP isn’t available we have used the SP odds.
WINS
The number of winners found in this sample of selections.
STRIKE RATE
The percentage of winners found from the selections.
ROI
Return On Investment. The percentage return made on turnover, based on betting 1 unit per selection.
A/E
Actual/Expected. Also known as the PIV (Pool Impact Value). This shows how many winners were found compared to the number of expected winners (based on odds). If this figure is greater than 1 then we have an edge, less than 1 and we don’t!
CHI2
The chi square is a statistical test which tells us how likely the results are due to chance or skill. 100% means the results are 100% based on chance, we want them to be as low as possible.
DOES THE SPDFIGLrAdj RATING MAKE HORSE RACING PROFITS?
Using data from 2018 to the present day, I’m going to start by looking at the top four ranked horses in every race.
Starting with all the top four rated horses in every race, with no conditions applied, we get these results:
RANKINGS
RANK #1
| Selections | Profit | Wins | Strike Rate | ROI | A/E | Chi2 |
| 25448 | -1211.97 | 4462 | 18% | -5% | 1.00 | 96.75% |
RANK #2
| Selections | Profit | Wins | Strike Rate | ROI | A/E | Chi2 |
| 26035 | -471.46 | 4032 | 15% | -2% | 0.97 | 1.81% |
RANK #3
| Selections | Profit | Wins | Strike Rate | ROI | A/E | Chi2 |
| 25338 | 523.59 | 3613 | 14% | 2% | 1.01 | 47.95% |
RANK #4
| Selections | Profit | Wins | Strike Rate | ROI | A/E | Chi2 |
| 24257 | -696.28 | 2983 | 12% | -3% | 0.99 | 53.02% |
NO RATING
| Selections | Profit | Wins | Strike Rate | ROI | A/E | Chi2 |
| 37691 | -3616.40 | 2761 | 7% | -10% | 0.98 | 20.72% |
We can see that the strike rate decreases steadily from the top ranked to the fourth ranked, which is as we would expect.
Horses ranked third in the race have made a flat bet profit of +523. units across all races since 2018, and the A/E ratio shows an edge of 1%. To show an edge on a raw ranking of a rating is a great start, although we would want the edge to be higher before we started betting.
RAW RATINGS
RATINGS >= 75
| Selections | Profit | Wins | Strike Rate | ROI | A/E | Chi2 |
| 2077 | 99.43 | 284 | 14% | 5% | 1.06 | 29.52% |
RATINGS >=0 AND <75
| Selections | Profit | Wins | Strike Rate | ROI | A/E | Chi2 |
| 109167 | -4720.75 | 12098 | 11% | -4% | 0.99 | 29.46% |
RATINGS >= -30 AND <0
| Selections | Profit | Wins | Strike Rate | ROI | A/E | Chi2 |
| 67565 | -1487.25 | 8411 | 12% | -2% | 1.00 | 78.64% |
RATINGS < -30
| Selections | Profit | Wins | Strike Rate | ROI | A/E | Chi2 |
| 86317 | -3294.75 | 7129 | 8% | -4% | 1.00 | 94.20% |
Looking at the raw ratings, we can again see a decline in strike rates as the ratings drop, which is as we would expect.
The A/E ratio is 1.00 for all groups, except for horses of a rating of 75 or higher where it is 1.06. This means that horses rated 75 or higher are winning 6% more often than the odds suggest. Another good start.
An A/E ratio of 1.00 means that these horses are winning the same amount the odds would predict. Whilst this won’t make us a profit, it’s a very strong position to be in with a single rating without any race conditions. A lot of raw ratings will have an A/E of less than one initially, indicating that they are finding winners less than the odds suggest.
A small profit was made on the horses with a rating of 75 or higher, although the strike rate is fairly low.
DIFFERENCE FROM TOP
LESS THAN 10 POINTS DIFFERENCE
| Selections | Profit | Wins | Strike Rate | ROI | A/E | Chi2 |
| 84146 | -5270.99 | 10214 | 12% | -6% | 0.99 | 15.18% |
MORE THAN 10 POINTS AND LESS THAN 40 POINTS DIFFERENCE
| Selections | Profit | Wins | Strike Rate | ROI | A/E | Chi2 |
| 71701 | -282.20 | 8584 | 12% | 0% | 1.00 | 93.38% |
MORE THAN 40 POINTS AND LESS THAN 100 POINTS DIFFERENCE
| Selections | Profit | Wins | Strike Rate | ROI | A/E | Chi2 |
| 89461 | -2031.05 | 7950 | 9% | -2% | 1.00 | 76.80% |
MORE THAN 100 POINTS DIFFERENCE
| Selections | Profit | Wins | Strike Rate | ROI | A/E | Chi2 |
| 19818 | -1819.08 | 1174 | 6% | -9% | 1.01 | 80.48% |
As with the previous variations of the rating, the strike rate is decreasing the further away from the top rated horse that we go.
None of the groupings have a positive A/E ratio straight out of the box here, but they’re all sitting at 1.00 or 0.99, which is a strong start.
The second grouping has a large number of runners and has made a 0% return resulting in a small loss. This ROI figure is actually -0.39% but I’ve rounded it to the nearest whole figure in the. above tables.
WHAT IMPACT RACE CONDITIONS HAVE
Before we look at the impact of race conditions, we need to choose which groupings we’re going to focus on. These are the strongest groupings from each version of the rating:
RANK #3
| Selections | Profit | Wins | Strike Rate | ROI | A/E | Chi2 |
| 25338 | 523.59 | 3613 | 14% | 2% | 1.01 | 47.95% |
RATINGS >= 75
| Selections | Profit | Wins | Strike Rate | ROI | A/E | Chi2 |
| 2077 | 99.43 | 284 | 14% | 5% | 1.06 | 29.52% |
MORE THAN 10 POINTS AND LESS THAN 40 POINTS DIFFERENCE
| Selections | Profit | Wins | Strike Rate | ROI | A/E | Chi2 |
| 71701 | -282.20 | 8584 | 12% | 0% | 1.00 | 93.38% |
We always want to look for the logic behind choosing a grouping of ratings, and the logic for horses ranked 3rd, and those with between 10 and 40 points difference of the top rated horse is the same…
Often the top rated horses have other factors which make them clearly strong runners within the market, which makes it harder for us to get the edge we need to make a profit.
When we get down to the third, fourth, fifth runners in the race, some of them may be strong under the current race conditions, but it’s not so obvious. In these situations the market hasn’t correctly assessed their chances of winning and there is some value to be had.
Horses rated 75 or higher on the raw rating are showing that the rating has a big enough advantage to make a flat bet profit. However, the cost of this is far less selections to work with. There are only an average of two horses a day found with this level of rating, which means we have far less ability to apply other conditions and still have a reasonable number of bets.
Now let’s take a look at how different race types perform for these three rating groups.
RANK #3
| Race Type | Selections | Profit | Wins | Strike Rate | ROI | A/E | Chi2 |
| NH Flat | 842 | 268.07 | 116 | 14% | 32% | 1.28 | 1% |
| Chase Turf | 3631 | 117.88 | 577 | 16% | 3% | 1.05 | 24% |
| Flat Turf | 8603 | 70.40 | 1198 | 14% | 1% | 0.97 | 30% |
| Hurdle Turf | 5840 | -184.49 | 855 | 15% | -3% | 1.02 | 53% |
| Hunter Chase | 165 | -59.88 | 19 | 12% | -36% | 0.77 | 22% |
| Flat AW | 6224 | 300.70 | 841 | 14% | 5% | 1.01 | 76% |
| Chase AW | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| Bumper AW | 23 | 20.91 | 7 | 30% | 91% | 2.42 | 1% |
| Missing | 10 | -10.00 | 0 | 0% | -100% | 0.00 | 22% |
RATINGS >=75
| Race Type | Selections | Profit | Wins | Strike Rate | ROI | A/E | Chi2 |
| NH Flat | 26 | -8.34 | 6 | 23% | -32% | 1.32 | 45% |
| Chase Turf | 558 | 111.71 | 70 | 13% | 20% | 0.96 | 68% |
| Flat Turf | 311 | -89.95 | 38 | 12% | -29% | 1.14 | 39% |
| Hurdle Turf | 363 | -62.03 | 45 | 12% | -17% | 1.01 | 92% |
| Hunter Chase | 1 | -1.00 | 0 | 0% | -100% | 0.00 | 97% |
| Flat AW | 818 | 149.04 | 125 | 15% | 18% | 1.11 | 21% |
| Chase AW | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| Bumper AW | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| Missing | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 | 0% |
MORE THAN 10 POINTS AND LESS THAN 40 POINTS DIFFERENCE
| Race Type | Selections | Profit | Wins | Strike Rate | ROI | A/E | Chi2 |
| NH Flat | 1650 | -99.76 | 192 | 12% | -6% | 1.11 | 12% |
| Chase Turf | 8871 | -244.91 | 1163 | 13% | -3% | 0.99 | 63% |
| Flat Turf | 25759 | 819.26 | 3123 | 12% | 3% | 1.00 | 98% |
| Hurdle Turf | 15711 | 353.52 | 1910 | 12% | 2% | 1.00 | 89% |
| Hunter Chase | 309 | -20.31 | 42 | 14% | -7% | 0.93 | 63% |
| Flat AW | 19340 | -1078.27 | 2146 | 11% | -6% | 0.99 | 78% |
| Chase AW | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 | 0% |
| Bumper AW | 33 | -4.35 | 6 | 18% | -13% | 1.27 | 53% |
| Missing | 28 | -7.38 | 2 | 7% | -26% | 0.57 | 39% |
This gives us some very interesting insights…
INSIGHTS
RANK #3
Horses that are ranked third for this rating have made a profit in NH Flat, Chase Turf, Flat Turf, Flat AW and Bumper AW.
The biggest profits were made in Flat AW, but the A/E is 1.01 and the Chi2 is 78%. This means we’ve only got a very small edge and we’d need more selections to be confident in using these. However, it does make sense to look further into this area as there are over 6000 races.
NH Flat racing made a profit of +268 units with a 28% edge and a 99% likelihood that the profits were due to the rating. However, there was a smaller number of selections of around 1 per day.
RATINGS >= 75
All the profits have come from Chase Turf and Flat AW. However we can see that the A/E Ratio in Chase Turf is just 0.96, meaning that we would expect this profit to become a loss in the long-term.
Flat AW has an impressive edge of 11%. Whilst we’d like the Chi2 to drop further, ideally to around 5% or less, this is a very good base to find contenders from.
MORE THAN 10 POINTS AND LESS THAN 40 POINTS DIFFERENCE
All the profit was made from Flat and Hurdle Turf races. However, the A/E ratio is 1.00, meaning that further investigation would be needed into these race conditions to find contenders that we’d be happy with in the long term.
With around 41,000 races over two and a half years between them, or 50 per day, there’s plenty of room to reduce the number and improve on this significantly.
IN SUMMARY
Each segment that we looked at in more detail from the different versions of the race types found a race type that made a flat bet profit out of the box.
Some of them would require more research to determine how to reduce the number of potential contenders, whilst others were already producing a strong contender list.
No other factors or information has been used to generate these profits.
Taking only those with a strong A/E ratio and profit we get
- Horses ranked 3rd for SPDFIGLrAdj in NH Flat and Chase Turf races
- Horses with a rating >=75 in Flat AW
If we just took those two conditions since 2018, we would have had these results…
| Selections | Profit | Wins | Strike Rate | ROI | A/E | Chi2 |
| 5291 | 534.98 | 818 | 15% | 10% | 1.08 | 1.32% |
This gives you around 5 possible contenders each day, finds an 8% edge for a 10% ROI and has a Chi2 well below our 5% ideal.
The strike rate of 15% is a bit too low, but this can be increased by checking the horses ability to perform over the conditions before deciding whether to bet, or implementing more rules on these contenders prior to betting.
Do you think that you could use this rating as a starting point to find selections?
Let me know if this is something you could use in your betting by leaving a comment below.
The RnkSPDFIGLrAdj (the ranking version of SPDFIGLrAdj) is available to our Pro members on the Standard race card. In just a few seconds you can create a custom race card with all three versions of the SPDFIGLrAdj rating on it.
If you’re not yet a member of RA Pro, you can register here.
You can practice this approach, and develop it further for zero-risk at Aldermist, the world’s only LikeReal Racing platform. Any system or strategy that is profitable at Aldermist will also be profitable on live racing.
Don’t forget… this is just one basic analysis on the SPDFIGLrAdj rating using race types, there are limitless ways we can investigate this rating to uncover profitable angles.
Hi Michael,
I hope that all i well during the lock-down.
This is probably a dumb question and has been answered before.
But i could not tell exactly where you getting the raw rankings over 85 from?
Is this from the OR value when clicking on a horse?
If so are we taking the value from the last race?
Robin
Apols, i meant the >=75 raw ranking value..
No problem, just to confirm, the >=75 is the raw rating no the rank 🙂 These are from the rating SPDFIGLrAdj, the standard race card only shows the Ranking version for this rating, not the raw rating. To get the raw rating you need to go to your Settings from the dashboard and make a custom race card with this rating on it. You can see how to do this in video 5 in the training area at https://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/training/