“Could do better” is my take on my system selections on the flat recently so I have spent a few hours this week analysing and tweaking the criteria and scoring data slightly so to hopefully show some improvement on the current selections and returns.
Although results are by no means a disaster I have now introduced a new race rating feature to determine which type of races and distances are proving to be most profitable. I have also amended my market calculator which I felt was a little too rigid in determining the prices I look for and I was therefore missing winners because of this and my view on value!
Hopefully these changes can be shown to good effect today and I am all over Dissolution in the Al Zubarah London Gold Cup at Newbury this afternoon who meets the race type and price criteria perfectly.
On the ratings alone Dissolution is miles clear of anything else and from that angle looks to be a good thing (although how many times have I heard that). A winning return over course and distance recently this Michael Stoute trained colt was the first to be ridden but showed a real good willing attitude to get up in a bunch finish. He possibly needs a bit further than today’s trip but with the run under his belt which would have sharpened him up, and the visor back on which I hope will have the desired effect I expect this this Derby entry to come on a great deal and at 9/2 (currently available) which I believe represents really good value I will be having my biggest bet of the flat season so far on him.
The other race I like is the Torando Carnavon Stakes also at Newbury.
This look to be a more open race where a number of today’s runners are closely rated including Jungle Cat who earns a good rating and whose price meets my requirements ( 12/1 available price required 8/1). He is definitely up to winning this but I was disappointed with his comeback run where I thought he should have finished a lot closer than he did in a race suited more to his level of ability. So although I like his current price, and it would be no surprise to see him run well it is a watching brief for me rather than an investment on him today.
I can also see Salt Island being in the mix, a comfortable winner at Newmarket last time out he is definitely going in the right direction but is he up to listed class? His last attempt in this grade was on unsuitable ground at Doncaster and his trainer will find out a lot more about his ability today and whilst I would not put anyone off backing him and he is a live danger his price is very skinny and I couldn’t have any money on him at the current odds available.
The other two that I give serious chances to are the Maktoum pair Waady and Adaay. I assume that Paul Hanagan was given the choice of the two mounts here and in fairness he knows a lot more than me; however I think he may have picked the wrong one here!
There is no doubt that Waady is progressive having won both his both starts in an authorative manner and possesses a good turn of foot which is a potent weapon in any horses arsenal, however he is up in both grade and trip today which I am not convinced will suit so begrudgingly I am going to bypass him as the selection and side with Adday.
I know William Haggas thinks a lot of this horse and his seasonal reappearance was a fair run and would have blown the cobwebs away. He has previously run respectfully in this grade and higher and will have no problem with either the trip or the going and I am therefore based upon this and the fact that he gets the top rating from me going to side with him in what is a trappy event providing I can get at least 11/2 about his chances.
2.35 Newbury 1pt win Adaay @ 11/2 or better
3.15 Newbury 3pt win Dissolution @ 9/2