What more can a man want the sun is shining and I’m out today with a few of my buddies for a couple of pints to watch the Investec Derby at Epsom. All I need now is to bag a couple of winners and to overcome this run of secondi Tus that I am currently experiencing and I will be a very happy man indeed.
I find it amazing that I seem to have three phases with my betting the first being what I deem to be my nowhere near phase where my horses run like donkey’s and are never in contention. The second of theses is my hit the goal post phase where I finish second or am unlucky in running which is where I am currently and is very frustrating as my selections last week proved, and finally my can do nothing wrong phase where everything I back comes in and is where I hope to be by the end of racing today, making hay when the sun shines!
So what do I like at Epsom today? To be perfectly honest I am not a big fan of the track as I feel you need a certain type of animal who can handle this unique courses features so a previous winner here is a big bonus and gives me a little more confidence, that said Epsom is hardly a Lingfield or Kempton when it comes to the number of meetings staged so finding a previous course winner that you feel has a chance is a challenge in itself.
None of the derby field today as expected have any experience here but providing he handles the track I don’t think you can look beyond the John Gosden trained Golden Horn to win this. Unbeaten in three starts he has looked very impressive especially last time out where he beat two of today’s rivals with consummate ease, yes there is a doubt about his ability to stay this trip but I don’t think Mr Gosden and the owners would have supplemented him for the race if they didn’t think he would stay and had a decent chance!
That said the 7/4 currently available about Golden Horn is not to my liking and I will therefore probably watch the race although I may have a small each way interest in the Aiden O’Brien trained Giovanni Canelleto currently available at 10/1 with Coral’s and Stan James!
The blink and miss it Invetec Dash however holds the most interest for me today and there are as usual in these big handicaps a number of runners who I consider to be in with some kind of a chance.
A high draw holds an advantage here and the regular runner in this Confessional based on upon his good system rating enters the calculations, he has run well here previously without winning and his runs this season have not been a disaster but he has not won in an age and is not getting any younger so he is not for me today.
I really can’t see the possible favourite and last year’s winner Caspian Prince repeating the feat again on significantly worse terms and a line is readily put through his chances.
Seeking Magic and Barnet Fair are both respected but the two that I like and am concentrating on and like in this are Monsieur Joe and Perfect Muse.
I was impressed with Monsieur Joe’s run at York last week when he beat my selection Red Baron and he ran creditably here last season when finishing a 2 ½ lengths 7th in this race. I also find with sprinters that once they get their heads in front they tend to build on this and run in to sequence of wins and it would be no surprise if this was the case with Monsieur Joe.
Slight preference however is for the Clive Cox trained Perfect Muse who has an ideal draw, gets the top rating from me and I believe has some more improvement to come.
He ran encouraging third on his reappearance at Goodwood last time out and although his conqueror in this race hardly franked the form next time out I fully expect him to have come on from that run and be competitive today. He has the more than capable services of the claimer Cam Hardie on board who takes off a valuable 3lb, and as I write this is a best priced of 11/1 which I feel is generous as I had set a required price from a personal perspective of 8/1.
Finally a little later at Epsom I am going to have a small each way wager on Adventure Seeker who I think is overpriced. He gets my top rating in the race and despite a lacklustre couple of runs so far this season he is certainly up to winning this and with the Ed Vaughan stable in the winners recently I am more than hopeful of a big run at a decent price.
Epsom 3.45 Perfect Muse 8/1 or better 1 point win
Epsom 3.45 Monsieur Joe 14/1 0.5 points each way
Epsom 5.15 Adventure Seeker 14/1 1 point each way